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Wells Fargo Probability of Financial Distress (%)

: 0.03% (As of Today)
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Probability of Financial Distress (%) measures the probability that a company will go bankrupt in the upcoming year given its current financial position. A higher ratio indicates a larger probability of bankruptcy for the company, while a lower ratio indicates a healthier fundamental. As of today, Wells Fargo's Probability of Financial Distress (%) is 0.03%.

Like the Altman Z-Score, the PFD measures a company's bankruptcy risk. However, the main drawback of the Z-score is it does not apply to banks and insurance companies. According to Investopedia, the concept of "working capital" does not apply to banks and insurance companies, as financial institutions do not have typical current assets or current liabilities like inventories or accounts payable.


Competitive Comparison

For the Banks - Diversified subindustry, Wells Fargo's Probability of Financial Distress (%), along with its competitors' market caps and Probability of Financial Distress (%) data, can be viewed below:

* Competitive companies are chosen from companies within the same industry, with headquarter located in same country, with closest market capitalization; x-axis shows the market cap, and y-axis shows the term value; the bigger the dot, the larger the market cap. Note that "N/A" values will not show up in the chart.

   

Wells Fargo Probability of Financial Distress (%) Distribution

For the Banks industry and Financial Services sector, Wells Fargo's Probability of Financial Distress (%) distribution charts can be found below:

* The bar in red indicates where Wells Fargo's Probability of Financial Distress (%) falls into.



Wells Fargo Probability of Financial Distress (%) Calculation

Probability of Financial Distress (%) (PFD) was developed by John Campbell, Jens Hilscher and Jan Szilagyi in their Search of Distress Risk. It measures the probability that a company will go bankrupt within the next 12 months given its current financial position.

The Probability of Financial Distress (%) was obtained by a logit probability model based on eight explanatory variables. The logit formula to compute the probability of financial distress (LPFD) is given below:

LPFD= -20.12 * NIMTAAVG + 1.60 * TLMTA - 7.88 * EXRETAVG + 1.55 * SIGMA - 0.005 * RSIZE - 2.27 * CASHMTA + 0.070 * MB - 0.09 * PRICE -8.87
=-8.26

The Probability of Financial Distress (%) (PFD) was then obtianed by:

PFD=1/(1 + e^(-LPFD))*100%
=0.03%

The eight explanatory variables are:

1. NIMTAAVG = Net Income to Market Total Assets

NIMTAAVG=Net Income / Market Total Assets
=Net Income / (Market Cap + Total Liabilities)

*Note that for companies reported quarterly, geometrically declining weighted quarterly Net Income data in latest four quarters are used.

2. TLMTA = Total liabilities to Market Total Assets

TLMTA=Total Liabilities / Market Total Assets

3. CASHMTA = Cash to Market Total Assets

For banks, CASHMTA is measured as:

CASHMTA=(Cash and cash equivalents + Money Market Investments) / Market Total Assets

4. EXRETAVG = Excess Return compared to the S&P 500

EXRETAVG is the weighted excess return compared to the S&P 500 in past 12 month. Geometrically declining weights are imposed on the monthly excess return to reflect lagged information. The weight is halved each quarter.

5. SIGMA = Standard Deviation of Daily Returns

For sigma, we use the annualized standard deviation of a company's returns over the past 92 days (or 63 trading days).

6. RSIZE = Relative Size

RSIZE=log (Market Cap / Total Market Cap of S&P 500 companies)

7. MB = Market to Adjusted Book Equity Ratio


8. PRICE

PRICE is measured as the log of the stock price, capped at log(15).


Wells Fargo  (NYSE:WFC) Probability of Financial Distress (%) Explanation

Like the Altman Z-Score, the PFD measures a company's bankruptcy risk in the upcoming year. However, the main drawback of the Z-score is it does not apply to banks and insurance companies. According to Investopedia, the concept of "working capital" does not apply to banks and insurance companies, as financial institutions do not have typical current assets or current liabilities like inventories or accounts payable.


Wells Fargo Probability of Financial Distress (%) Related Terms

Thank you for viewing the detailed overview of Wells Fargo's Probability of Financial Distress (%) provided by GuruFocus.com. Please click on the following links to see related term pages.


Wells Fargo Business Description

Wells Fargo logo
Industry
Financial Services » Banks NAICS : 522110 SIC : 6021
Address
420 Montgomery Street, San Francisco, CA, USA, 94104
Wells Fargo is one of the largest banks in the United States, with approximately $1.9 trillion in balance sheet assets. The company is split into four primary segments: consumer banking, commercial banking, corporate and investment banking, and wealth and investment management. It is almost entirely focused on the U.S.
Executives
Scharf Charles W director, officer: CEO & President C/O VISA INC. 900 METRO CENTER BLVD. FOSTER CITY CA 94404
Williams Ather Iii officer: Sr. Executive Vice President 30 HUDSON YARDS NEW YORK NY 10001
Santomassimo Michael P. officer: Sr. EVP & CFO 225 LIBERTY STREET NEW YORK NY 10286
Noski Charles H director ONE PICKWICK PLAZA GREENWICH CT 06830
Hewett Wayne M. director 5 WESTBROOK CORPORATE CENTER WESTCHESTER IL 60154
Chancy Mark A director 303 PEACHTREE ST. 30TH FLOOR ATLANTA GA 30308
Black Steven D director C/O JPMORGAN CHASE & CO. 270 PARK AVENUE NEW YORK NY 10017
Clark Celeste A. director C/O ADVANCEPIERRE FOODS HOLDINGS, INC. 9987 CARVER ROAD BLUE ASH OH 45242
Sargent Ronald director 1014 VINE STREET CINCINNATI OH 45202
Owens Lester officer: Sr. Executive Vice President 240 GREENWICH STREET NEW YORK NY 10286
Galloreese David officer: Sr. Executive Vice President 420 MONTGOMERY STREET SAN FRANCISCO CA 94104
Norton Amanda G officer: Sr. EVP and Chief Risk Officer 420 MONTGOMERY STREET SAN FRANCISCO CA 94104
Flowers Derek A. officer: Sr. Executive Vice President 301 SOUTH COLLEGE STREET CHARLOTTE NC 28202
Craver Theodore F Jr director DUKE ENERGY CORPORATION 550 SOUTH TRYON STREET - DEC45A CHARLOTTE NC 28202
Sommers Barry officer: Sr. Executive Vice President 30 HUDSON YARDS NEW YORK NY 10001

Wells Fargo Headlines

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