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Harley-Davidson (WBO:HOG) Cyclically Adjusted FCF per Share : €5.16 (As of Mar. 2024)


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What is Harley-Davidson Cyclically Adjusted FCF per Share?

E10 is a concept invented by Prof. Robert Shiller, who uses E10 for his Shiller PE Ratio calculation. E10 is the average of the inflation adjusted earnings of a company over the past 10 years. The similar calculation is applied by GuruFocus to calculate the Cyclically Adjusted FCF per Share and the Cyclically Adjusted Price-to-FCF. The Cyclically Adjusted FCF per Share is the average of the inflation adjusted Free Cash Flow per Share of a company over the past 10 years.

Harley-Davidson's adjusted free cash flow per share for the three months ended in Mar. 2024 was €0.387. Add all the adjusted free cash flow per share for the past 10 years together and divide the count will get our Cyclically Adjusted FCF per Share, which is €5.16 for the trailing ten years ended in Mar. 2024.

During the past 12 months, Harley-Davidson's average Cyclically Adjusted FCF Growth Rate was -100.00% per year. During the past 3 years, the average Cyclically Adjusted FCF Growth Rate was 6.10% per year. During the past 5 years, the average Cyclically Adjusted FCF Growth Rate was 6.90% per year. During the past 10 years, the average Cyclically Adjusted FCF Growth Rate was 11.70% per year. Please click Growth Rate Calculation Example (GuruFocus) to see how GuruFocus calculates Wal-Mart Stores Inc (WMT)'s revenue growth rate. You can apply the same method to get the Cyclically Adjusted FCF Growth Rate using Cyclically Adjusted FCF per Share data.

During the past 13 years, the highest 3-Year average Cyclically Adjusted FCF Growth Rate of Harley-Davidson was 40.10% per year. The lowest was -2.30% per year. And the median was 16.10% per year.

As of today (2024-04-27), Harley-Davidson's current stock price is €32.08. Harley-Davidson's Cyclically Adjusted FCF per Share for the quarter that ended in Mar. 2024 was €5.16. Harley-Davidson's Cyclically Adjusted Price-to-FCF of today is 6.22.

During the past 13 years, the highest Cyclically Adjusted Price-to-FCF of Harley-Davidson was 33.19. The lowest was 3.47. And the median was 10.84.


Harley-Davidson Cyclically Adjusted FCF per Share Historical Data

The historical data trend for Harley-Davidson's Cyclically Adjusted FCF per Share can be seen below:

* For Operating Data section: All numbers are indicated by the unit behind each term and all currency related amount are in USD.
* For other sections: All numbers are in millions except for per share data, ratio, and percentage. All currency related amount are indicated in the company's associated stock exchange currency.

* Premium members only.

Harley-Davidson Cyclically Adjusted FCF per Share Chart

Harley-Davidson Annual Data
Trend Dec14 Dec15 Dec16 Dec17 Dec18 Dec19 Dec20 Dec21 Dec22 Dec23
Cyclically Adjusted FCF per Share
Get a 7-Day Free Trial Premium Member Only Premium Member Only 4.01 3.81 4.58 5.07 5.13

Harley-Davidson Quarterly Data
Jun19 Sep19 Dec19 Mar20 Jun20 Sep20 Dec20 Mar21 Jun21 Sep21 Dec21 Mar22 Jun22 Sep22 Dec22 Mar23 Jun23 Sep23 Dec23 Mar24
Cyclically Adjusted FCF per Share Get a 7-Day Free Trial Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only 5.21 5.21 5.43 5.13 5.16

Competitive Comparison of Harley-Davidson's Cyclically Adjusted FCF per Share

For the Recreational Vehicles subindustry, Harley-Davidson's Cyclically Adjusted Price-to-FCF, along with its competitors' market caps and Cyclically Adjusted Price-to-FCF data, can be viewed below:

* Competitive companies are chosen from companies within the same industry, with headquarter located in same country, with closest market capitalization; x-axis shows the market cap, and y-axis shows the term value; the bigger the dot, the larger the market cap. Note that "N/A" values will not show up in the chart.


Harley-Davidson's Cyclically Adjusted Price-to-FCF Distribution in the Vehicles & Parts Industry

For the Vehicles & Parts industry and Consumer Cyclical sector, Harley-Davidson's Cyclically Adjusted Price-to-FCF distribution charts can be found below:

* The bar in red indicates where Harley-Davidson's Cyclically Adjusted Price-to-FCF falls into.



Harley-Davidson Cyclically Adjusted FCF per Share Calculation

E10 is a concept invented by Prof. Robert Shiller, who uses E10 for his Shiller PE Ratio calculation. E10 is the average of the inflation adjusted earnings of a company over the past 10 years. The similar calculation is applied by GuruFocus to calculate the Cyclically Adjusted FCF per Share and the Cyclically Adjusted Price-to-FCF. The Cyclically Adjusted FCF per Share is the average of the inflation adjusted Free Cash Flow per Share of a company over the past 10 years.

What is Cyclically Adjusted FCF per Share? How do we calculate Cyclically Adjusted FCF per Share?

Cyclically Adjusted FCF per Share is the average of the inflation adjusted Free Cash Flow per Share of a company over the past 10 years. Let's use an example to explain.

If we want to calculate the Cyclically Adjusted FCF per Share of Wal-Mart (WMT) for Dec. 31, 2010, we need to have the inflation data and the free cash flow per share from 2001 through 2010.

We adjusted the 2001 free cash flow per share data with the total inflation from 2001 through 2010 to the equivalent free cash flow in 2010. If the total inflation from 2001 to 2010 is 40%, and Wal-Mart's free cash flow is $1 a share in 2001, then the 2001's equivalent free cash flow in 2010 is $1.4 a share. If Wal-Mart's free cash flow is $1 again in 2002, and the total inflation from 2002 through 2010 is 35%, then the equivalent 2002 free cash flow in 2010 is $1.35. So on and so forth, you get the equivalent free cash flow per share of past 10 years. Then you add them together and divided the sum by the count to get Cyclically Adjusted FCF per Share.

Please note that we use the CPI data of the country/region where the company is headquartered. If the CPI data for that country/region is not available, then we will use the CPI data of the United States as default.

For example, Harley-Davidson's adjusted Free Cash Flow per Share data for the three months ended in Mar. 2024 was:

Adj_FreeCashFlowPerShare= Free Cash Flow per Share /CPI of Mar. 2024 (Change)*Current CPI (Mar. 2024)
=0.387/129.4194*129.4194
=0.387

Current CPI (Mar. 2024) = 129.4194.

Harley-Davidson Quarterly Data

Free Cash Flow per Share CPI Adj_FreeCashFlowPerShare
201406 1.069 100.560 1.376
201409 1.254 100.428 1.616
201412 0.257 99.070 0.336
201503 0.596 99.621 0.774
201506 1.675 100.684 2.153
201509 1.538 100.392 1.983
201512 -0.202 99.792 -0.262
201603 0.010 100.470 0.013
201606 1.701 101.688 2.165
201609 2.069 101.861 2.629
201612 0.818 101.863 1.039
201703 0.718 102.862 0.903
201706 2.139 103.349 2.679
201709 1.366 104.136 1.698
201712 -0.182 104.011 -0.226
201803 0.782 105.290 0.961
201806 2.577 106.317 3.137
201809 1.728 106.507 2.100
201812 -0.056 105.998 -0.068
201903 -0.014 107.251 -0.017
201906 2.307 108.070 2.763
201909 1.819 108.329 2.173
201912 -0.236 108.420 -0.282
202003 -0.244 108.902 -0.290
202006 3.389 108.767 4.032
202009 2.756 109.815 3.248
202012 0.022 109.897 0.026
202103 0.783 111.754 0.907
202106 2.477 114.631 2.797
202109 1.410 115.734 1.577
202112 -0.049 117.630 -0.054
202203 0.657 121.301 0.701
202206 0.498 125.017 0.516
202209 2.064 125.227 2.133
202212 -0.590 125.222 -0.610
202303 0.010 127.348 0.010
202306 2.041 128.729 2.052
202309 1.583 129.860 1.578
202312 -0.132 129.419 -0.132
202403 0.387 129.419 0.387

Add all the adjusted free cash flow per share together and divide 10 will get our Cyclically Adjusted FCF per Share.


Harley-Davidson  (WBO:HOG) Cyclically Adjusted FCF per Share Explanation

If a company grows much fast than inflation, Cyclically Adjusted FCF per Share may underestimate the company's free cash flow. Cyclically Adjusted Price-to-FCF can seem to be too high even the actual Price-to-Free-Cash-Flow is low.

For the Cyclically Adjusted Price-to-FCF, the free cash flow per share of the past 10 years are inflation-adjusted and averaged. The result is used for P/FCF calculation. Since it looks at the average over the last 10 years, the Cyclically Adjusted Price-to-FCF is also called CAPFCF Ratio.

The Shiller PE Ratio was first used by professor Robert Shiller. He uses E10 for his Shiller PE Ratio calculation. E10 is the average of the inflation adjusted earnings per share of a company over the past 10 years. The similar calculation is applied by GuruFocus to calculate the Cyclically Adjusted Price-to-FCF. The Cyclically Adjusted FCF per Share is the average of the inflation adjusted free cash flow per share of a company over the past 10 years.

Harley-Davidson's Cyclically Adjusted Price-to-FCF of today is calculated as

Cyclically Adjusted Price-to-FCF=Share Price/Cyclically Adjusted FCF per Share
=32.08/5.16
=6.22

* For Operating Data section: All numbers are indicated by the unit behind each term and all currency related amount are in USD.
* For other sections: All numbers are in millions except for per share data, ratio, and percentage. All currency related amount are indicated in the company's associated stock exchange currency.

During the past 13 years, the highest Cyclically Adjusted Price-to-FCF of Harley-Davidson was 33.19. The lowest was 3.47. And the median was 10.84.


Be Aware

Cyclically Adjusted Price-to-FCF works better for cyclical companies. It gives you a better idea on the company's real free cash flow value.


Harley-Davidson Cyclically Adjusted FCF per Share Related Terms

Thank you for viewing the detailed overview of Harley-Davidson's Cyclically Adjusted FCF per Share provided by GuruFocus.com. Please click on the following links to see related term pages.


Harley-Davidson (WBO:HOG) Business Description

Address
3700 West Juneau Avenue, Milwaukee, WI, USA, 53208
Harley-Davidson is a global leading manufacturer of heavyweight motorcycles, merchandise, parts, and accessories. It sells custom, cruiser, and touring motorcycles and offers a complete line of Harley-Davidson motorcycle parts, accessories, riding gear, and apparel, as well as merchandise. Harley-Davidson Financial Services provides wholesale financing to dealers and retail financing and insurance brokerage services to customers. Harley has historically captured about half of all heavyweight domestic retail motorcycle registrations, a metric it had ceded in 2020 as it repositioned the business, and has yet to restore (at 39% in the third quarter). In recent years the firm has expanded into the adventure touring market with its Pan America model and into electric with the LiveWire brand.

Harley-Davidson (WBO:HOG) Headlines