Harley-Davidson (WBO:HOG) Beneish M-Score: -2.82 (As of Jun. 25, 2026)


WBO:HOG Harley-Davidson Inc WBO:HOG
78 GF Score
Price €22.72
GF Value €24.91
Valuation Fairly Valued
! 8 Warning Signs
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What is Harley-Davidson Beneish M-Score?

Harley-Davidson WBO:HOG +1.56% 78 Beneish M-Score is -2.82 as of Jun. 25, 2026. GuruFocus rates WBO:HOG with a GF Score™ of 78/100 and a GF Value™ of €24.91 (Fairly Valued). The stock has 8 warning signs investors should review. Among 1,273 Vehicles & Parts companies, Harley-Davidson ranks better than 75.96% on this metric.

The zones of discrimination for M-Score is as such:

An M-Score of equal or less than -1.78 suggests that the company is unlikely to be a manipulator.
An M-Score of greater than -1.78 signals that the company is likely to be a manipulator.

Good Sign:

Beneish M-Score -2.82 no higher than -1.78, which implies that the company is unlikely to be a manipulator.

The historical rank and industry rank for Harley-Davidson's Beneish M-Score or its related term are showing as below:

WBO:HOG' s Beneish M-Score Range Over the Past 10 Years
Min: -3.29   Med: -2.68   Max: -2.12
Current: -2.82

During the past 13 years, the highest Beneish M-Score of Harley-Davidson was -2.12. The lowest was -3.29. And the median was -2.68.


Harley-Davidson Beneish M-Score Historical Data

* Premium members only.

The historical data trend for Harley-Davidson's Beneish M-Score can be seen below:

* For Operating Data section: All numbers are indicated by the unit behind each term and all currency related amount are in USD.
* For other sections: All numbers are in millions except for per share data, ratio, and percentage. All currency related amount are indicated in the company's associated stock exchange currency.

Harley-Davidson Beneish M-Score Chart

Harley-Davidson Annual Data
Trend Dec16 Dec17 Dec18 Dec19 Dec20 Dec21 Dec22 Dec23 Dec24 Dec25
Beneish M-Score
Get a 7-Day Free Trial Premium Member Only Premium Member Only -2.44 -2.21 -2.41 -2.78 -3.15

Harley-Davidson Quarterly Data
Jun21 Sep21 Dec21 Mar22 Jun22 Sep22 Dec22 Mar23 Jun23 Sep23 Dec23 Mar24 Jun24 Sep24 Dec24 Mar25 Jun25 Sep25 Dec25 Mar26
Beneish M-Score Get a 7-Day Free Trial Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only -2.87 -2.88 -3.21 -3.15 -2.82

WBO:HOG vs LCII, PATK, PII: Beneish M-Score Comparison

For the Recreational Vehicles subindustry, Harley-Davidson's Beneish M-Score, along with its competitors' market caps and Beneish M-Score data, can be viewed below:

* Competitive companies are chosen from companies within the same industry, with headquarter located in same country, with closest market capitalization; x-axis shows the market cap, and y-axis shows the term value; the bigger the dot, the larger the market cap. Note that "N/A" values will not show up in the chart.


Harley-Davidson Beneish M-Score vs Vehicles & Parts Industry

For the Vehicles & Parts industry and Consumer Cyclical sector, Harley-Davidson's Beneish M-Score distribution charts can be found below:

* The bar in red indicates where Harley-Davidson's Beneish M-Score falls into.


WBO:HOG
78GF Score
Harley-Davidson Inc WBO:HOG
Beneish M-Score is just one metric. See GF Score™, valuation, warning signs, and more.
View Full Analysis

Harley-Davidson Beneish M-Score Calculation

The M-score was created by Professor Messod Beneish. Instead of measuring the bankruptcy risk (Altman Z-Score) or business trend (Piotroski F-Score), M-score can be used to detect the risk of earnings manipulation. This is the original research paper on M-score.

The M-Score Variables:

The M-score of Harley-Davidson for today is based on a combination of the following eight different indices:

M=-4.84+0.92 * DSRI+0.528 * GMI+0.404 * AQI+0.892 * SGI+0.115 * DEPI
=-4.84+0.92 * 0.8147+0.528 * 1.2318+0.404 * 0.491+0.892 * 0.8388+0.115 * 0.9292
-0.172 * SGAI+4.679 * TATA-0.327 * LVGI
-0.172 * 1.1909+4.679 * -0.010067-0.327 * 0.7288
=-2.88

* For Operating Data section: All numbers are indicated by the unit behind each term and all currency related amount are in USD.
* For other sections: All numbers are in millions except for per share data, ratio, and percentage. All currency related amount are indicated in the company's associated stock exchange currency.

This Year (Mar26) TTM:Last Year (Mar25) TTM:
Total Receivables was €1,644 Mil.
Revenue was 1014.239 + 423.718 + 1142.285 + 1133.254 = €3,713 Mil.
Gross Profit was 293.322 + -47.523 + 397.155 + 401.188 = €1,044 Mil.
Total Current Assets was €4,102 Mil.
Total Assets was €6,267 Mil.
Property, Plant and Equipment(Net PPE) was €693 Mil.
Depreciation, Depletion and Amortization(DDA) was €150 Mil.
Selling, General, & Admin. Expense(SGA) was €1,027 Mil.
Total Current Liabilities was €2,144 Mil.
Long-Term Debt & Capital Lease Obligation was €1,041 Mil.
Net Income was 21.429 + -238.525 + 321.516 + 93.262 = €198 Mil.
Non Operating Income was 19.18 + 23.849 + 22.981 + 22.045 = €88 Mil.
Cash Flow from Operations was -197.238 + 129.824 + -78.886 + 319.02 = €173 Mil.
Total Receivables was €2,405 Mil.
Revenue was 1229.518 + 656.667 + 1036.776 + 1503.952 = €4,427 Mil.
Gross Profit was 434.278 + 146.228 + 394.324 + 558.459 = €1,533 Mil.
Total Current Assets was €5,224 Mil.
Total Assets was €11,454 Mil.
Property, Plant and Equipment(Net PPE) was €753 Mil.
Depreciation, Depletion and Amortization(DDA) was €149 Mil.
Selling, General, & Admin. Expense(SGA) was €1,028 Mil.
Total Current Liabilities was €3,350 Mil.
Long-Term Debt & Capital Lease Obligation was €4,635 Mil.




1. DSRI = Days Sales in Receivables Index

Measured as the ratio of Revenue in Total Receivables in year t to year t-1.

A large increase in DSR could be indicative of revenue inflation.

DSRI=(Receivables_t / Revenue_t) / (Receivables_t-1 / Revenue_t-1)
=(1643.611 / 3713.496) / (2405.006 / 4426.913)
=0.442605 / 0.543269
=0.8147

2. GMI = Gross Margin Index

Measured as the ratio of gross margin in year t-1 to gross margin in year t.

Gross margin has deteriorated when this index is above 1. A firm with poorer prospects is more likely to manipulate earnings.

GMI=GrossMargin_t-1 / GrossMargin_t
=(GrossProfit_t-1 / Revenue_t-1) / (GrossProfit_t / Revenue_t)
=(1533.289 / 4426.913) / (1044.142 / 3713.496)
=0.346356 / 0.281175
=1.2318

3. AQI = Asset Quality Index

AQI is the ratio of asset quality in year t to year t-1.

Asset quality is measured as the ratio of non-current assets other than Property, Plant and Equipment to Total Assets.

AQI=(1 - (CurrentAssets_t + PPE_t) / TotalAssets_t) / (1 - (CurrentAssets_t-1 + PPE_t-1) / TotalAssets_t-1)
=(1 - (4102.423 + 693.496) / 6267.497) / (1 - (5223.764 + 752.972) / 11453.702)
=0.234795 / 0.478183
=0.491

4. SGI = Sales Growth Index

Ratio of Revenue in year t to sales in year t-1.

Sales growth is not itself a measure of manipulation. However, growth companies are likely to find themselves under pressure to manipulate in order to keep up appearances.

SGI=Sales_t / Sales_t-1
=Revenue_t / Revenue_t-1
=3713.496 / 4426.913
=0.8388

5. DEPI = Depreciation Index

Measured as the ratio of the rate of Depreciation, Depletion and Amortization in year t-1 to the corresponding rate in year t.

DEPI greater than 1 indicates that assets are being depreciated at a slower rate. This suggests that the firm might be revising useful asset life assumptions upwards, or adopting a new method that is income friendly.

DEPI=(Depreciation_t-1 / (Depreciaton_t-1 + PPE_t-1)) / (Depreciation_t / (Depreciaton_t + PPE_t))
=(149.255 / (149.255 + 752.972)) / (150.206 / (150.206 + 693.496))
=0.16543 / 0.178032
=0.9292

Note: If the Depreciation, Depletion and Amortization data is not available, we assume that the depreciation rate is constant and set the Depreciation Index to 1.

6. SGAI = Sales, General and Administrative expenses Index

The ratio of Selling, General, & Admin. Expense(SGA) to Sales in year t relative to year t-1.

SGA expenses index > 1 means that the company is becoming less efficient in generate sales.

SGAI=(SGA_t / Sales_t) / (SGA_t-1 /Sales_t-1)
=(1026.558 / 3713.496) / (1027.588 / 4426.913)
=0.27644 / 0.232123
=1.1909

7. LVGI = Leverage Index

The ratio of total debt to Total Assets in year t relative to yeat t-1.

An LVGI > 1 indicates an increase in leverage

LVGI=((LTD_t + CurrentLiabilities_t) / TotalAssets_t) / ((LTD_t-1 + CurrentLiabilities_t-1) / TotalAssets_t-1)
=((1040.847 + 2143.58) / 6267.497) / ((4635.386 + 3350.145) / 11453.702)
=0.508086 / 0.697201
=0.7288

8. TATA = Total Accruals to Total Assets

Total accruals calculated as the change in working capital accounts other than cash less depreciation.

TATA=(IncomefromContinuingOperations_t - CashFlowsfromOperations_t) / TotalAssets_t
=(NetIncome_t - NonOperatingIncome_t - CashFlowsfromOperations_t) / TotalAssets_t
=(197.682 - 88.055 - 172.72) / 6267.497
=-0.010067

An M-Score of equal or less than -1.78 suggests that the company is unlikely to be a manipulator. An M-Score of greater than -1.78 signals that the company is likely to be a manipulator.

Harley-Davidson has a M-score of -2.88 suggests that the company is unlikely to be a manipulator.

Frequently Asked Questions Learn more about Beneish M-Score →
What does a Beneish M-Score of -2.82 mean?
Harley-Davidson (WBO:HOG) has a Beneish M-Score of -2.82 as of Jun. 25, 2026. The Beneish M-score measures the likelihood of earnings manipulation. View historical data on Harley-Davidson and its competitors. According to the industry distribution chart, Harley-Davidson ranks #306 out of 1273 companies in the Vehicles & Parts industry, placing it in the top 24%.
Is Harley-Davidson's Beneish M-Score too high?
Harley-Davidson's current Beneish M-Score is -2.82. Based on the distribution chart, Harley-Davidson ranks #306 out of 1273 companies in the Vehicles & Parts industry, which is in the top quartile — a strong position relative to peers. Overall, Harley-Davidson has a GF Score™ of 78/100 and is considered Fairly Valued, reflecting its overall financial health beyond just this single metric.
How does Harley-Davidson's Beneish M-Score compare to LCII and PATK?
According to the Vehicles & Parts industry distribution chart, Harley-Davidson ranks #306 out of 1273 companies for Beneish M-Score. This places Harley-Davidson in the top 24% of its industry — outperforming the majority of peers. See the competitive comparison table and distribution chart on this page for a detailed peer-by-peer breakdown.
What is a good Beneish M-Score for a Vehicles & Parts company?
A good Beneish M-Score depends on the Vehicles & Parts industry context. However, Beneish M-Score should not be evaluated in isolation — investors should consider it alongside profitability, growth, and financial strength metrics. Use the industry distribution chart on this page to see where any company falls relative to its peers.
What does a high Beneish M-Score mean?
A high Beneish M-Score can signal that a stock is expensive relative to its fundamentals. The Beneish M-score measures the likelihood of earnings manipulation. View historical data on Harley-Davidson and its competitors. Harley-Davidson's current Beneish M-Score is -2.82. However, context matters — high-growth companies often justify higher valuations. Always evaluate alongside other metrics like GF Score™ and GF Value™.
Is Harley-Davidson stock overvalued right now?
Based on GuruFocus' analysis, Harley-Davidson (WBO:HOG) is currently considered Fairly Valued. The stock's GF Value™ is €24.91, compared to a current price of €22.72 — trading 8.8% below its estimated fair value. The current Beneish M-Score is -2.82. Harley-Davidson's overall GF Score™ is 78/100 with 8 warning signs to review. Investors should evaluate multiple metrics — including profitability, growth, and financial strength — before making a decision.
How is Beneish M-Score calculated?
Beneish M-Score is calculated from a company's financial statements. For Harley-Davidson (WBO:HOG), the current Beneish M-Score is -2.82 as of Jun. 25, 2026. GuruFocus calculates this using data sourced from SEC filings and annual reports. See the calculation section and 30-year financial data on this page for the full breakdown.

Is Harley-Davidson (WBO:HOG) Overvalued in 2026?

Based on GuruFocus' analysis, Harley-Davidson stock appears to be undervalued. The current stock price of €22.72 is trading 8.8% below its estimated GF Value™ of €24.91. GuruFocus considers Harley-Davidson to be Fairly Valued.

Key valuation signals for WBO:HOG:

  • Beneish M-Score: -2.82
  • GF Value™: €24.91 vs. price of €22.72 (8.8% below fair value)
  • GF Score™: 78/100 with 8 warning signs

No single metric tells the full story. See the WBO:HOG stock analysis page for a complete view including 30-year financials, guru trades, and insider activity.


Harley-Davidson Business Description

Address 3700 West Juneau Avenue, Milwaukee, WI, USA, 53208
Harley-Davidson is a leading global manufacturer of heavyweight motorcycles across the custom, cruising, and touring categories, as well as related merchandise, parts, and accessories. In recent years, the firm has expanded into the adventure touring market with its Pan America model, into electric with the LiveWire brand, and is returning to smaller-displacement bikes with the Sprint. Its captive finance arm, Harley-Davidson Financial Services, provides wholesale financing to dealers and retail financing and insurance brokerage services to customers. Harley captured around 34% of the heavyweight domestic market in 2025.
78GF Score

Get the complete analysis for WBO:HOG

Beneish M-Score is just one metric. See GF Value™, 30-year financials, guru trades, warning signs, and more.

€22.72
Price
€24.91
GF Value