Harley-Davidson (WBO:HOG) Beneish M-Score : -2.49 (As of Apr. 29, 2024)

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What is Harley-Davidson Beneish M-Score?

The zones of discrimination for M-Score is as such:

An M-Score of equal or less than -1.78 suggests that the company is unlikely to be a manipulator.
An M-Score of greater than -1.78 signals that the company is likely to be a manipulator.

Good Sign:

Beneish M-Score -2.49 no higher than -1.78, which implies that the company is unlikely to be a manipulator.

The historical rank and industry rank for Harley-Davidson's Beneish M-Score or its related term are showing as below:

WBO:HOG' s Beneish M-Score Range Over the Past 10 Years
Min: -3.29 Med: -2.65 Max: -2.12
Current: -2.49

During the past 13 years, the highest Beneish M-Score of Harley-Davidson was -2.12. The lowest was -3.29. And the median was -2.65.

Harley-Davidson Beneish M-Score Historical Data

The historical data trend for Harley-Davidson's Beneish M-Score can be seen below:

* For Operating Data section: All numbers are indicated by the unit behind each term and all currency related amount are in USD.
* For other sections: All numbers are in millions except for per share data, ratio, and percentage. All currency related amount are indicated in the company's associated stock exchange currency.

* Premium members only.

Harley-Davidson Beneish M-Score Chart

Harley-Davidson Annual Data

Trend

Dec14

Dec15

Dec16

Dec17

Dec18

Dec19

Dec20

Dec21

Dec22

Dec23

Beneish M-Score

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-2.61

-3.29

-2.44

-2.21

-2.41

Harley-Davidson Quarterly Data
	Jun19	Sep19	Dec19	Mar20	Jun20	Sep20	Dec20	Mar21	Jun21	Sep21	Dec21	Mar22	Jun22	Sep22	Dec22	Mar23	Jun23	Sep23	Dec23	Mar24
Beneish M-Score	Get a 7-Day Free Trial															-2.12	-2.33	-2.40	-2.41	-2.49

Competitive Comparison of Harley-Davidson's Beneish M-Score

For the Recreational Vehicles subindustry, Harley-Davidson's Beneish M-Score, along with its competitors' market caps and Beneish M-Score data, can be viewed below:

* Competitive companies are chosen from companies within the same industry, with headquarter located in same country, with closest market capitalization; x-axis shows the market cap, and y-axis shows the term value; the bigger the dot, the larger the market cap. Note that "N/A" values will not show up in the chart.

Harley-Davidson's Beneish M-Score Distribution in the Vehicles & Parts Industry

For the Vehicles & Parts industry and Consumer Cyclical sector, Harley-Davidson's Beneish M-Score distribution charts can be found below:

* The bar in red indicates where Harley-Davidson's Beneish M-Score falls into.

Harley-Davidson Beneish M-Score Calculation

The M-score was created by Professor Messod Beneish. Instead of measuring the bankruptcy risk (Altman Z-Score) or business trend (Piotroski F-Score), M-score can be used to detect the risk of earnings manipulation. This is the original research paper on M-score.

The M-Score Variables:

The M-score of Harley-Davidson for today is based on a combination of the following eight different indices:

-4.84

0.92 * DSRI

0.528 * GMI

0.404 * AQI

0.892 * SGI

0.115 * DEPI

-4.84

0.92 * 1.1738

0.528 * 1.0989

0.404 * 1.1285

0.892 * 0.9206

0.115 * 0.1707

0.172 * SGAI

4.679 * TATA

0.327 * LVGI

0.172 * 1.0601

4.679 * -0.024415

0.327 * 0.9862

-2.50

This Year (Mar24) TTM:

Last Year (Mar23) TTM:

Total Receivables was €2,603 Mil.
Revenue was 1591.238 + 965.794 + 1451.468 + 1334.218 = €5,343 Mil.
Gross Profit was 470.124 + 305.795 + 535.583 + 525.085 = €1,837 Mil.
Total Current Assets was €4,955 Mil.
Total Assets was €11,348 Mil.
Property, Plant and Equipment(Net PPE) was €0 Mil.
Depreciation, Depletion and Amortization(DDA) was €115 Mil.
Selling, General, & Admin. Expense(SGA) was €1,052 Mil.
Total Current Liabilities was €3,212 Mil.
Long-Term Debt & Capital Lease Obligation was €4,590 Mil.
Net Income was 216.146 + 23.666 + 186.134 + 164.33 = €590 Mil.
Non Operating Income was 32.171 + 30.627 + 34.371 + 16.962 = €114 Mil.
Cash Flow from Operations was 95.677 + 44.126 + 277.583 + 335.827 = €753 Mil.

Total Receivables was €2,409 Mil.
Revenue was 1670.633 + 1078.314 + 1665.061 + 1389.756 = €5,804 Mil.
Gross Profit was 661.119 + 371.277 + 647.591 + 512.464 = €2,192 Mil.
Total Current Assets was €4,941 Mil.
Total Assets was €11,236 Mil.
Property, Plant and Equipment(Net PPE) was €685 Mil.
Depreciation, Depletion and Amortization(DDA) was €141 Mil.
Selling, General, & Admin. Expense(SGA) was €1,078 Mil.
Total Current Liabilities was €2,881 Mil.
Long-Term Debt & Capital Lease Obligation was €4,952 Mil.

1. DSRI = Days Sales in Receivables Index

Measured as the ratio of Revenue in Total Receivables in year t to year t-1.

A large increase in DSR could be indicative of revenue inflation.

DSRI	=	(Receivables_t / Revenue_t)	/	(Receivables_t-1 / Revenue_t-1)
	=	(2602.902 / 5342.718)	/	(2408.936 / 5803.764)
	=	0.487187	/	0.415064
	=	1.1738

2. GMI = Gross Margin Index

Measured as the ratio of gross margin in year t-1 to gross margin in year t.

Gross margin has deteriorated when this index is above 1. A firm with poorer prospects is more likely to manipulate earnings.

GMI	=	GrossMargin_t-1	/	GrossMargin_t
	=	(GrossProfit_t-1 / Revenue_t-1)	/	(GrossProfit_t / Revenue_t)
	=	(2192.451 / 5803.764)	/	(1836.587 / 5342.718)
	=	0.377764	/	0.343755
	=	1.0989

3. AQI = Asset Quality Index

AQI is the ratio of asset quality in year t to year t-1.

Asset quality is measured as the ratio of non-current assets other than Property, Plant and Equipment to Total Assets.

AQI	=	(1 - (CurrentAssets_t + PPE_t) / TotalAssets_t)	/	(1 - (CurrentAssets_t-1 + PPE_t-1) / TotalAssets_t-1)
	=	(1 - (4955.033 + 0) / 11348.126)	/	(1 - (4941.334 + 685.174) / 11235.632)
	=	0.563361	/	0.499226
	=	1.1285

4. SGI = Sales Growth Index

Ratio of Revenue in year t to sales in year t-1.

Sales growth is not itself a measure of manipulation. However, growth companies are likely to find themselves under pressure to manipulate in order to keep up appearances.

SGI	=	Sales_t	/	Sales_t-1
	=	Revenue_t	/	Revenue_t-1
	=	5342.718	/	5803.764
	=	0.9206

5. DEPI = Depreciation Index

Measured as the ratio of the rate of Depreciation, Depletion and Amortization in year t-1 to the corresponding rate in year t.

DEPI greater than 1 indicates that assets are being depreciated at a slower rate. This suggests that the firm might be revising useful asset life assumptions upwards, or adopting a new method that is income friendly.

DEPI	=	(Depreciation_t-1 / (Depreciaton_t-1 + PPE_t-1))	/	(Depreciation_t / (Depreciaton_t + PPE_t))
	=	(141.009 / (141.009 + 685.174))	/	(114.523 / (114.523 + 0))
	=	0.170675	/	1
	=	0.1707

Note: If the Depreciation, Depletion and Amortization data is not available, we assume that the depreciation rate is constant and set the Depreciation Index to 1.

6. SGAI = Sales, General and Administrative expenses Index

The ratio of Selling, General, & Admin. Expense(SGA) to Sales in year t relative to year t-1.

SGA expenses index > 1 means that the company is becoming less efficient in generate sales.

SGAI	=	(SGA_t / Sales_t)	/	(SGA_t-1 /Sales_t-1)
	=	(1051.704 / 5342.718)	/	(1077.7 / 5803.764)
	=	0.196848	/	0.18569
	=	1.0601

7. LVGI = Leverage Index

The ratio of total debt to Total Assets in year t relative to yeat t-1.

An LVGI > 1 indicates an increase in leverage

LVGI	=	((LTD_t + CurrentLiabilities_t) / TotalAssets_t)	/	((LTD_t-1 + CurrentLiabilities_t-1) / TotalAssets_t-1)
	=	((4589.78 + 3212.018) / 11348.126)	/	((4951.921 + 2881.001) / 11235.632)
	=	0.687497	/	0.69715
	=	0.9862

8. TATA = Total Accruals to Total Assets

Total accruals calculated as the change in working capital accounts other than cash less depreciation.

TATA	=	(IncomefromContinuingOperations_t	-	CashFlowsfromOperations_t)	/	TotalAssets_t
	=	(NetIncome_t - NonOperatingIncome_t	-	CashFlowsfromOperations_t)	/	TotalAssets_t
	=	(590.276 - 114.131	-	753.213)	/	11348.126
	=	-0.024415

An M-Score of equal or less than -1.78 suggests that the company is unlikely to be a manipulator. An M-Score of greater than -1.78 signals that the company is likely to be a manipulator.

Harley-Davidson has a M-score of -2.50 suggests that the company is unlikely to be a manipulator.

Harley-Davidson Beneish M-Score Related Terms

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Harley-Davidson (WBO:HOG) Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Consumer Cyclical » Vehicles & Parts » Harley-Davidson Inc (WBO:HOG) » Definitions » Beneish M-Score

Comparable Companies

Traded in Other Exchanges

HOG:USA HOG:Mexico 1HOG:Italy HAR:Germany H1OG34:Brazil HOG:Argentina

Address

3700 West Juneau Avenue, Milwaukee, WI, USA, 53208

Website

https://www.harley-davidson.com

Harley-Davidson is a global leading manufacturer of heavyweight motorcycles, merchandise, parts, and accessories. It sells custom, cruiser, and touring motorcycles and offers a complete line of Harley-Davidson motorcycle parts, accessories, riding gear, and apparel, as well as merchandise. Harley-Davidson Financial Services provides wholesale financing to dealers and retail financing and insurance brokerage services to customers. Harley has historically captured about half of all heavyweight domestic retail motorcycle registrations, a metric it had ceded in 2020 as it repositioned the business, and has yet to restore (at 39% in the third quarter). In recent years the firm has expanded into the adventure touring market with its Pan America model and into electric with the LiveWire brand.