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China Tourism Group Duty FreeCTGDF 81 Intrinsic Value: DCF (FCF Based) is $3.13 as of Aug. 15, 2026, which is 68% above its 10-year median of 1.86. GuruFocus rates CTGDF with a GF Score™ of 81/100. The stock has 5 warning signs investors should review. Among 130 Retail - Cyclical companies, China Tourism Group Duty Free ranks worse than 769230% on this metric.
Note: Discounted Cash Flow model is only suitable for predictable companies (Business Predictability Rank higher than 1-Star). If the company's predictability rank is 1-Star or Not Rated, result may not be accurate due to the low predictability of business and the data will not be stored into our database.
China Tourism Group Duty Free's Predictability Rank is 1-Star. Thus, this page is only used for demonstration purposes and the DCF related results in the screener and portfolio will appear as zero.
The industry rank for China Tourism Group Duty Free's Intrinsic Value: DCF (FCF Based) or its related term are showing as below:
CTGDF's Price-to-DCF (FCF Based) is not ranked *
in the Retail - Cyclical industry.
Industry Median: 0.705 * Ranked among companies with meaningful Price-to-DCF (FCF Based) only.
1. The DCF model evaluates a company based on its future earnings power
2. Growth is taken into account; therefore a faster growth company is worth more if everything else is the same.
3. Since we are projecting future growth, it is assumed that the company will grow at the same rate as it did during the past 10 years. Therefore this model works better for the companies that have relatively consistent performance.
4. The DCF model works poorly for inconsistent performers such as cyclicals.
5. What discount rate should you use? Your expected return from the investment is a good discount rate assumption.
6. A larger margin of safety should be required for companies with less predictable businesses.
* For Operating Data section: All numbers are indicated by the unit behind each term and all currency related amount are in USD. * For other sections: All numbers are in millions except for per share data, ratio, and percentage. All currency related amount are indicated in the company's associated stock exchange currency.
China Tourism Group Duty Free Intrinsic Value: DCF (FCF Based) Chart
For the Specialty Retail subindustry, China Tourism Group Duty Free's Price-to-DCF (FCF Based), along with its competitors' market caps and Price-to-DCF (FCF Based) data, can be viewed below:
* Competitive companies are chosen from companies within the same industry, with headquarter located in same country, with closest market capitalization; x-axis shows the market cap, and y-axis shows the term value; the bigger the dot, the larger the market cap. Note that "N/A" values will not show up in the chart.
China Tourism Group Duty Free Price-to-DCF (FCF Based) vs Retail - Cyclical Industry
For the Retail - Cyclical industry and Consumer Cyclical sector, China Tourism Group Duty Free's Price-to-DCF (FCF Based) distribution charts can be found below:
* The bar in red indicates where China Tourism Group Duty Free's Price-to-DCF (FCF Based) falls into.
China Tourism Group Duty Free Intrinsic Value: DCF (FCF Based) Calculation
This is the intrinsic value calculated from the Discounted Cash Flow model with default parameters. In a discounted cash flow model, the future cash flow is estimated based on a cash flow growth rate and a discount rate. The cash flow of the future is discounted to its current value at the discount rate. All of the discounted future cash flow is added together to get the current intrinsic value of the company.
Usually a two-stage model is used when calculating a stock's intrinsic value using a discounted cash flow model. The first stage is called the growth stage; the second is called the terminal stage. In the growth stage the company grows at a faster rate. Because it cannot grow at that rate forever, a lower rate is used for the terminal stage.
GuruFocus DCF calculator is a two-stage model. The default values are defined as:
1. Discount Rate: d = 11% A reasonable discount rate assumption should be at least the long term average return of the stock market, which can be estimated from risk free rate plus risk premium of stock market. GuruFocus uses 10-Year Treasury Constant Maturity Rate as the risk-free rate and rounded up to the nearest integer. It is updated daily. The current risk-free rate is 4.69%. Please go to Economic Indicators page for more information. Please note that we use the 10-Year Treasury Constant Maturity Rate of the country/region where the company is headquartered. If the data for that country/region is not available, then we will use the 10-Year Treasury Constant Maturity Rate of the United States as default. Then we added a risk premium of 6% to get the estimated discount rate. Some investors use their expected rate of return, which is also reasonable. A typical discount rate can be anywhere between 6% - 20%.
2. Growth Rate in the growth stage: g1 = 5%
The Growth Rate in the growth stage is initially set as the default 10-Year FCF Growth Rate (Per Share). In cases where the 10-year growth rate is unavailable, it defaults to using the 5-Year FCF Growth Rate (Per Share). If both the 10-year and 5-year growth rates are unavailable, the system defaults to the 3-Year FCF Growth Rate (Per Share).
However, it's important to note that there is a growth rate range. If the calculated growth rate exceeds 20%, it will be capped at 20%. Conversely, if the calculated growth rate falls below 5%, it will be adjusted to 5% to maintain a reasonable range.
=>
China Tourism Group Duty Free's average Free Cash Flow Growth Rate in the past
3 years was 0.00%,
which is less than 5%. GuruFocus defaults => Growth Rate: 5%
3. Years of Growth Stage: y1 = 10
4. Terminal Growth Rate: g2 = 4%
5. Years of Terminal Growth: y2 = 10
6. Free Cash Flow per Share: fcf = $0.271. However, GuruFocus DCF calculator is actually a Discounted Earnings calculator, the EPS without NRI is used as the default. The reason we are doing this is we found that historically stock prices are more correlated with earnings than free cash flow.
All of the default settings can be changed and the results are calculated automatically.
* For Operating Data section: All numbers are indicated by the unit behind each term and all currency related amount are in USD. * For other sections: All numbers are in millions except for per share data, ratio, and percentage. All currency related amount are indicated in the company's associated stock exchange currency.
What does a Intrinsic Value: DCF (FCF Based) of $3.13 mean?
China Tourism Group Duty Free (CTGDF) has a Intrinsic Value: DCF (FCF Based) of $3.13 as of Aug. 15, 2026. Intrinsic Value: DCF (FCF Based) is the stock value based on a two-stage discounted free cash flow model. View historical data on China Tourism Group Duty Free and its competitors. This is 68% above median its historical median of 1.86. Over the past decade, China Tourism Group Duty Free's Intrinsic Value: DCF (FCF Based) has ranged from 0.38 to 13.88. According to the industry distribution chart, China Tourism Group Duty Free ranks #999999 out of 130 companies in the Retail - Cyclical industry.
Is China Tourism Group Duty Free's Intrinsic Value: DCF (FCF Based) too high?
China Tourism Group Duty Free's current Intrinsic Value: DCF (FCF Based) of $3.13 is 68% above median its 10-year median of 1.86. Over the past 10 years, this metric has ranged from a low of 0.38 to a high of 13.88. The Retail - Cyclical industry median Intrinsic Value: DCF (FCF Based) is 0.71. China Tourism Group Duty Free's value of $3.13 is 344% above this industry median. Based on the distribution chart, China Tourism Group Duty Free ranks #999999 out of 130 companies in the Retail - Cyclical industry, which is in the bottom quartile relative to peers. Overall, China Tourism Group Duty Free has a GF Score™ of 81/100, reflecting its overall financial health beyond just this single metric.
How does China Tourism Group Duty Free's Intrinsic Value: DCF (FCF Based) compare to CASY and WSM?
According to the Retail - Cyclical industry distribution chart, China Tourism Group Duty Free ranks #999999 out of 130 companies for Intrinsic Value: DCF (FCF Based). This places China Tourism Group Duty Free in the lower half of its industry. The industry median Intrinsic Value: DCF (FCF Based) is 0.71. China Tourism Group Duty Free's value of $3.13 is 344% above this benchmark. Historically, China Tourism Group Duty Free's own Intrinsic Value: DCF (FCF Based) has ranged from 0.38 to 13.88 over the past decade. While the company's 10-year median is 1.86 vs. the industry median of 0.71, China Tourism Group Duty Free has consistently been above the industry average. See the competitive comparison table and distribution chart on this page for a detailed peer-by-peer breakdown.
What is a good Intrinsic Value: DCF (FCF Based) for a Retail - Cyclical company?
The median Intrinsic Value: DCF (FCF Based) among Retail - Cyclical companies is 0.71, based on 130 companies in the industry. Companies in the top quartile (top 25%) have a Intrinsic Value: DCF (FCF Based) significantly above this median, while those in the bottom quartile fall well below. However, Intrinsic Value: DCF (FCF Based) should not be evaluated in isolation — investors should consider it alongside profitability, growth, and financial strength metrics. China Tourism Group Duty Free's current Intrinsic Value: DCF (FCF Based) of $3.13 is 344% above the industry median. Use the industry distribution chart on this page to see where any company falls relative to its peers.
What does a high Intrinsic Value: DCF (FCF Based) mean?
A high Intrinsic Value: DCF (FCF Based) can signal that a stock is expensive relative to its fundamentals. Intrinsic Value: DCF (FCF Based) is the stock value based on a two-stage discounted free cash flow model. View historical data on China Tourism Group Duty Free and its competitors. For the Retail - Cyclical industry, the median Intrinsic Value: DCF (FCF Based) is 0.71 — values significantly above this may indicate overvaluation, while values below may suggest a bargain or underlying issues. China Tourism Group Duty Free's current Intrinsic Value: DCF (FCF Based) is $3.13, which is 68% above median its own 10-year median of 1.86. However, context matters — high-growth companies often justify higher valuations. Always evaluate alongside other metrics like GF Score™ and GF Value™.
Is China Tourism Group Duty Free stock overvalued right now?
China Tourism Group Duty Free (CTGDF) has a current Intrinsic Value: DCF (FCF Based) of $3.13. The current Intrinsic Value: DCF (FCF Based) is $3.13, which is 68% above median its 10-year median of 1.86 and 344% above the Retail - Cyclical industry median of 0.71. China Tourism Group Duty Free's overall GF Score™ is 81/100 with 5 warning signs to review. Investors should evaluate multiple metrics — including profitability, growth, and financial strength — before making a decision.
How is Intrinsic Value: DCF (FCF Based) calculated?
Intrinsic Value: DCF (FCF Based) is calculated from a company's financial statements. For China Tourism Group Duty Free (CTGDF), the current Intrinsic Value: DCF (FCF Based) is $3.13 as of Aug. 15, 2026. GuruFocus calculates this using data sourced from SEC filings and annual reports. See the calculation section and 30-year financial data on this page for the full breakdown.
Established in 1984, China Tourism Group Duty Free is China's largest and the world's second-largest travel retailer in 2025 with revenue of CNY 54 billion. The company primarily operates duty-free stores at airports, border crossings, offshore, downtown, and on flights, cruises and ships, with about 200 stores spanning over 33 provinces in China, as well as overseas. The company also operates a duty-paid business. Its 2025 revenue mix was 73% duty-free sales and 27% duty-paid sales and others. CTG Duty Free is 50% owned by China Tourism Group, a state-owned enterprise that falls directly under the State-owned Assets Supervision and Administration Commission of the State Council.
81GF Score
Get the complete analysis for CTGDF
Intrinsic Value: DCF (FCF Based) is just one metric. See GF Value™, 30-year financials, guru trades, warning signs, and more.
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