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China Tourism Group Duty FreeCTGDF 61 Intrinsic Value: Projected FCF is $5.65 as of Aug. 27, 2026. GuruFocus rates CTGDF with a GF Score™ of 61/100 and a GF Value™ of $7.61 (Modestly Undervalued). The stock has 3 warning signs investors should review. Among 766 Retail - Cyclical companies, China Tourism Group Duty Free ranks worse than 66.84% on this metric.
Since the intrinsic value calculations based on Discounted Cash Flow Intrinsic Value: DCF (FCF Based), or Discounted Earnings Intrinsic Value: DCF (Earnings Based) cannot be applied to companies without consistent revenue and earnings, GuruFocus developed a valuation model based on normalized Free Cash Flow and Book Value of the company. The details of how we calculate the intrinsic value of stocks are described in detail here.
The historical rank and industry rank for China Tourism Group Duty Free's Intrinsic Value: Projected FCF or its related term are showing as below:
CTGDF'
s Price-to-Projected-FCF Range Over the Past 10 Years
Min: 1.08 Med: 3.14 Max: 10.74
Current: 1.11
During the past 13 years, the highest Price-to-Intrinsic-Value-Projected-FCF of China Tourism Group Duty Free was 10.74. The lowest was 1.08. And the median was 3.14.
CTGDF's Price-to-Projected-FCF is ranked worse than 66.84% of 766
companies
in the Retail - Cyclical industry
Industry Median: 0.785
vs CTGDF: 1.11
China Tourism Group Duty Free (OTCPK:CTGDF) Intrinsic Value: Projected FCF Explanation
The growth multiple is capped between 8.35 and 17.74.
Total Stockholders Equity weighting is more art than science and it should always be revisited in more detail when researching a company. Weightings from 0% to 100% to more than 100% are possible. 80% was chosen as a happy median after taking the above ideas into consideration.
China Tourism Group Duty Free's Price-to-Intrinsic-Value-Projected-FCF for today is calculated as
Price-to-Intrinsic-Value-Projected-FCF
=
Share Price
/
Intrinsic Value: Projected FCF
=
6.25
/
6.8896109775199
=
0.91
* For Operating Data section: All numbers are indicated by the unit behind each term and all currency related amount are in USD. * For other sections: All numbers are in millions except for per share data, ratio, and percentage. All currency related amount are indicated in the company's associated stock exchange currency.
China Tourism Group Duty Free Intrinsic Value: Projected FCF Related Terms
China Tourism Group Duty Free Intrinsic Value: Projected FCF Historical Data
* For Operating Data section: All numbers are indicated by the unit behind each term and all currency related amount are in USD. * For other sections: All numbers are in millions except for per share data, ratio, and percentage. All currency related amount are indicated in the company's associated stock exchange currency.
China Tourism Group Duty Free Intrinsic Value: Projected FCF Chart
CTGDF vs CASY, WSM, ULTA: Intrinsic Value: Projected FCF Comparison
For the Specialty Retail subindustry, China Tourism Group Duty Free's Price-to-Projected-FCF, along with its competitors' market caps and Price-to-Projected-FCF data, can be viewed below:
* Competitive companies are chosen from companies within the same industry, with headquarter located in same country, with closest market capitalization; x-axis shows the market cap, and y-axis shows the term value; the bigger the dot, the larger the market cap. Note that "N/A" values will not show up in the chart.
China Tourism Group Duty Free Price-to-Projected-FCF vs Retail - Cyclical Industry
For the Retail - Cyclical industry and Consumer Cyclical sector, China Tourism Group Duty Free's Price-to-Projected-FCF distribution charts can be found below:
* The bar in red indicates where China Tourism Group Duty Free's Price-to-Projected-FCF falls into.
China Tourism Group Duty Free Intrinsic Value: Projected FCF Calculation
Since the intrinsic value calculations based on Discounted Cash Flow Intrinsic Value: DCF (FCF Based), or Discounted Earnings Intrinsic Value: DCF (Earnings Based) cannot be applied to companies without consistent revenue and earnings, GuruFocus developed a valuation model based on normalized Free Cash Flow and Book Value of the company.
The details of how we calculate the intrinsic value of stocks are described in detail here.
This method smooths out the free cash flow over the past 6-7 years, multiplies the results by a growth multiple, and adds a portion of Total Stockholders Equity.
* For Operating Data section: All numbers are indicated by the unit behind each term and all currency related amount are in USD. * For other sections: All numbers are in millions except for per share data, ratio, and percentage. All currency related amount are indicated in the company's associated stock exchange currency.
What does a Intrinsic Value: Projected FCF of $5.65 mean?
China Tourism Group Duty Free (CTGDF) has a Intrinsic Value: Projected FCF of $5.65 as of Aug. 27, 2026. Intrinsic Value: Projected FCF is the stock value based on a projected free cash flow model. View historical data on China Tourism Group Duty Free and its competitors. According to the industry distribution chart, China Tourism Group Duty Free ranks #512 out of 766 companies in the Retail - Cyclical industry, placing it in the top 66.8%.
Is China Tourism Group Duty Free's Intrinsic Value: Projected FCF too high?
China Tourism Group Duty Free's current Intrinsic Value: Projected FCF is $5.65. The Retail - Cyclical industry median Intrinsic Value: Projected FCF is 0.79. China Tourism Group Duty Free's value of $5.65 is 619.7% above this industry median. Based on the distribution chart, China Tourism Group Duty Free ranks #512 out of 766 companies in the Retail - Cyclical industry, which is below the industry midpoint. Overall, China Tourism Group Duty Free has a GF Score™ of 61/100 and is considered Modestly Undervalued, reflecting its overall financial health beyond just this single metric.
How does China Tourism Group Duty Free's Intrinsic Value: Projected FCF compare to CASY and WSM?
According to the Retail - Cyclical industry distribution chart, China Tourism Group Duty Free ranks #512 out of 766 companies for Intrinsic Value: Projected FCF. This places China Tourism Group Duty Free in the lower half of its industry. The industry median Intrinsic Value: Projected FCF is 0.79. China Tourism Group Duty Free's value of $5.65 is 619.7% above this benchmark. See the competitive comparison table and distribution chart on this page for a detailed peer-by-peer breakdown.
What is a good Intrinsic Value: Projected FCF for a Retail - Cyclical company?
The median Intrinsic Value: Projected FCF among Retail - Cyclical companies is 0.79, based on 766 companies in the industry. Companies in the top quartile (top 25%) have a Intrinsic Value: Projected FCF significantly above this median, while those in the bottom quartile fall well below. However, Intrinsic Value: Projected FCF should not be evaluated in isolation — investors should consider it alongside profitability, growth, and financial strength metrics. China Tourism Group Duty Free's current Intrinsic Value: Projected FCF of $5.65 is 619.7% above the industry median. Use the industry distribution chart on this page to see where any company falls relative to its peers.
What does a high Intrinsic Value: Projected FCF mean?
A high Intrinsic Value: Projected FCF can signal that a stock is expensive relative to its fundamentals. Intrinsic Value: Projected FCF is the stock value based on a projected free cash flow model. View historical data on China Tourism Group Duty Free and its competitors. For the Retail - Cyclical industry, the median Intrinsic Value: Projected FCF is 0.79 — values significantly above this may indicate overvaluation, while values below may suggest a bargain or underlying issues. China Tourism Group Duty Free's current Intrinsic Value: Projected FCF is $5.65. However, context matters — high-growth companies often justify higher valuations. Always evaluate alongside other metrics like GF Score™ and GF Value™.
Is China Tourism Group Duty Free stock overvalued right now?
Based on GuruFocus' analysis, China Tourism Group Duty Free (CTGDF) is currently considered Modestly Undervalued. The stock's GF Value™ is $7.61, compared to a current price of $6.25 — trading 17.9% below its estimated fair value. The current Intrinsic Value: Projected FCF is $5.65 and 619.7% above the Retail - Cyclical industry median of 0.79. China Tourism Group Duty Free's overall GF Score™ is 61/100 with 3 warning signs to review. Investors should evaluate multiple metrics — including profitability, growth, and financial strength — before making a decision.
How is Intrinsic Value: Projected FCF calculated?
Intrinsic Value: Projected FCF is calculated from a company's financial statements. For China Tourism Group Duty Free (CTGDF), the current Intrinsic Value: Projected FCF is $5.65 as of Aug. 27, 2026. GuruFocus calculates this using data sourced from SEC filings and annual reports. See the calculation section and 30-year financial data on this page for the full breakdown.
Is China Tourism Group Duty Free (CTGDF) Overvalued in 2026?
Based on GuruFocus' analysis, China Tourism Group Duty Free stock appears to be undervalued.
The current stock price of $6.25 is trading 17.9% below its estimated GF Value™ of $7.61.
GuruFocus considers China Tourism Group Duty Free to be Modestly Undervalued.
Key valuation signals for CTGDF:
Intrinsic Value: Projected FCF: $5.65
GF Value™: $7.61 vs. price of $6.25 (17.9% below fair value)
Industry Position: 619.7% above the Retail - Cyclical median (#512 of 766)
No single metric tells the full story. See the CTGDF stock analysis page for a complete view including 30-year financials, guru trades, and insider activity.
Established in 1984, China Tourism Group Duty Free is China's largest and the world's second-largest travel retailer in 2025 with revenue of CNY 54 billion. The company primarily operates duty-free stores at airports, border crossings, offshore, downtown, and on flights, cruises and ships, with about 200 stores spanning over 33 provinces in China, as well as overseas. The company also operates a duty-paid business. Its 2025 revenue mix was 73% duty-free sales and 27% duty-paid sales and others. CTG Duty Free is 50% owned by China Tourism Group, a state-owned enterprise that falls directly under the State-owned Assets Supervision and Administration Commission of the State Council.
61GF Score
Get the complete analysis for CTGDF
Intrinsic Value: Projected FCF is just one metric. See GF Value™, 30-year financials, guru trades, warning signs, and more.
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