Focused on building reliable datasets, financial models, and research tools for value-minded investors. Committed to turning complex data into practical guidance for value-investing and long-term wealth.
Dr. Charlie Tian is the founder and CEO of GuruFocus.com, a leading global investment research platform established in 2004. With a Ph.D. in physics, Dr. Tian transitioned from science to finance, applying a data-driven, disciplined approach to value investing.
Yacktman defines forward rate of return as the normalized free cash flow yield plus real growth plus inflation. China Tourism Group Duty Free's forward rate of return for was -18.22%.
The historical rank and industry rank for China Tourism Group Duty Free's Forward Rate of Return (Yacktman) % or its related term are showing as below:
CTGDF'
s Forward Rate of Return (Yacktman) % Range Over the Past 10 Years
Min: -18.14 Med: 18.79 Max: 21.45
Current: -17.1
During the past 13 years, China Tourism Group Duty Free's highest Forward Rate of Return was 21.45. The lowest was -18.14. And the median was 18.79.
CTGDF's Forward Rate of Return (Yacktman) % is ranked worse than 88.65% of 793
companies
in the Retail - Cyclical industry
Industry Median: 12.86
vs CTGDF: -17.10
Unlike the Earnings Yield %, the Forward Rate of Return uses the normalized Free Cash Flow of the past five years, and considers growth. The forward rate of return can be thought of as the return that investors buying the stock today can expect from it in the future.
China Tourism Group Duty Free (OTCPK:CTGDF) Forward Rate of Return (Yacktman) % Explanation
Unlike the Earnings Yield, the Forward Rate of Return uses the normalized Free Cash Flow of the past five years, and considers growth. The forward rate of return can be thought of as the return that investors buying the stock today can expect from it in the future.
For the growth part of the Forward Rate of Return calculation, GuruFocus uses the 5-year average growth rate of EBITDA per share as the growth rate, and the growth rate is always capped at 20%. For the Free Cash Flow we use per share data averaged over five years. The reason we use five years is to make it comparable to the growth rate.
Be Aware
In the Forward Rate of Return calculation, the growth rate is added directly to today's free cash flow yield. Therefore the calculation is reliable only if the company can grow at the same rate in the future as it did in the past. Investors should pay close attention to this when researching growth stocks. A more accurate measurement for return is Return on Capital.
China Tourism Group Duty Free Forward Rate of Return (Yacktman) % Related Terms
China Tourism Group Duty Free Forward Rate of Return (Yacktman) % Historical Data
* Premium members only.
The historical data trend for China Tourism Group Duty Free's Forward Rate of Return (Yacktman) % can be seen below:
* For Operating Data section: All numbers are indicated by the unit behind each term and all currency related amount are in USD. * For other sections: All numbers are in millions except for per share data, ratio, and percentage. All currency related amount are indicated in the company's associated stock exchange currency.
China Tourism Group Duty Free Forward Rate of Return (Yacktman) % Chart
CTGDF vs CASY, WSM, ULTA: Forward Rate of Return (Yacktman) % Comparison
For the Specialty Retail subindustry, China Tourism Group Duty Free's Forward Rate of Return (Yacktman) %, along with its competitors' market caps and Forward Rate of Return (Yacktman) % data, can be viewed below:
* Competitive companies are chosen from companies within the same industry, with headquarter located in same country, with closest market capitalization; x-axis shows the market cap, and y-axis shows the term value; the bigger the dot, the larger the market cap. Note that "N/A" values will not show up in the chart.
China Tourism Group Duty Free Forward Rate of Return (Yacktman) % vs Retail - Cyclical Industry
For the Retail - Cyclical industry and Consumer Cyclical sector, China Tourism Group Duty Free's Forward Rate of Return (Yacktman) % distribution charts can be found below:
* The bar in red indicates where China Tourism Group Duty Free's Forward Rate of Return (Yacktman) % falls into.
China Tourism Group Duty Free Forward Rate of Return (Yacktman) % Calculation
Forward Rate of Return is a concept that Don Yacktman uses in his investment approach. Yacktman explained the forward rate of return concept in detail in his interview with GuruFocus. Yacktman defines forward rate of return as the normalized free cash flow yield plus real growth plus inflation. He said in the interview (March 2012, when the S&P 500 was at about 1400):
If the business is stable, this calculation is fairly straightforward. For instance, on the S&P 500 we would normalize earnings. We would then calculate what percentage of those earnings are not reinvested in the underlying businesses and are therefore free. Historically, for the S&P 500, this has been just under 50% of earnings. Currently, we expect the S&P to earn about 70 on a normalized basis, a number which is far below reported earnings due to our adjusting for record high profit margins. $70 X ½ / 1400 gives you a normalized free cash flow yield of approximately 2.5%.
The historical real growth rate of the S&P 500 (companies) is about 1.5%. Assuming an inflation rate of 2.5%, the forward rate of return on an investment in the S&P 500 is about 6.5% today (2.5% free cash flow yield plus 1.5% real growth plus 2.5% inflation).
* For Operating Data section: All numbers are indicated by the unit behind each term and all currency related amount are in USD. * For other sections: All numbers are in millions except for per share data, ratio, and percentage. All currency related amount are indicated in the company's associated stock exchange currency.
What does a Forward Rate of Return (Yacktman) % of -18.22% mean?
China Tourism Group Duty Free (CTGDF) has a Forward Rate of Return (Yacktman) % of -18.22% as of Mar. 2026. Yacktman's forward rate of return equals the sum of normalized free-cash-flow yield plus earnings growth. View historical data on China Tourism Group Duty Free and its competitors. According to the industry distribution chart, China Tourism Group Duty Free ranks #703 out of 793 companies in the Retail - Cyclical industry, placing it in the top 88.7%.
Is China Tourism Group Duty Free's Forward Rate of Return (Yacktman) % too high?
China Tourism Group Duty Free's current Forward Rate of Return (Yacktman) % is -18.22%. Based on the distribution chart, China Tourism Group Duty Free ranks #703 out of 793 companies in the Retail - Cyclical industry, which is in the bottom quartile relative to peers. Overall, China Tourism Group Duty Free has a GF Score™ of 81/100, reflecting its overall financial health beyond just this single metric.
How does China Tourism Group Duty Free's Forward Rate of Return (Yacktman) % compare to CASY and WSM?
According to the Retail - Cyclical industry distribution chart, China Tourism Group Duty Free ranks #703 out of 793 companies for Forward Rate of Return (Yacktman) %. This places China Tourism Group Duty Free in the lower half of its industry. The industry median Forward Rate of Return (Yacktman) % is 12.86. See the competitive comparison table and distribution chart on this page for a detailed peer-by-peer breakdown.
What is a good Forward Rate of Return (Yacktman) % for a Retail - Cyclical company?
The median Forward Rate of Return (Yacktman) % among Retail - Cyclical companies is 12.86, based on 793 companies in the industry. Companies in the top quartile (top 25%) have a Forward Rate of Return (Yacktman) % significantly above this median, while those in the bottom quartile fall well below. However, Forward Rate of Return (Yacktman) % should not be evaluated in isolation — investors should consider it alongside profitability, growth, and financial strength metrics. Use the industry distribution chart on this page to see where any company falls relative to its peers.
What does a high Forward Rate of Return (Yacktman) % mean?
A high Forward Rate of Return (Yacktman) % can signal that a stock is expensive relative to its fundamentals. Yacktman's forward rate of return equals the sum of normalized free-cash-flow yield plus earnings growth. View historical data on China Tourism Group Duty Free and its competitors. For the Retail - Cyclical industry, the median Forward Rate of Return (Yacktman) % is 12.86 — values significantly above this may indicate overvaluation, while values below may suggest a bargain or underlying issues. China Tourism Group Duty Free's current Forward Rate of Return (Yacktman) % is -18.22%. However, context matters — high-growth companies often justify higher valuations. Always evaluate alongside other metrics like GF Score™ and GF Value™.
Is China Tourism Group Duty Free stock overvalued right now?
China Tourism Group Duty Free (CTGDF) has a current Forward Rate of Return (Yacktman) % of -18.22%. The stock's GF Value™ is $7.91, compared to a current price of $6.25 — trading 21% below its estimated fair value. The current Forward Rate of Return (Yacktman) % is -18.22%. China Tourism Group Duty Free's overall GF Score™ is 81/100 with 4 warning signs to review. Investors should evaluate multiple metrics — including profitability, growth, and financial strength — before making a decision.
How is Forward Rate of Return (Yacktman) % calculated?
Forward Rate of Return (Yacktman) % is calculated from a company's financial statements. For China Tourism Group Duty Free (CTGDF), the current Forward Rate of Return (Yacktman) % is -18.22% as of Mar. 2026. GuruFocus calculates this using data sourced from SEC filings and annual reports. See the calculation section and 30-year financial data on this page for the full breakdown.
Is China Tourism Group Duty Free (CTGDF) Overvalued in 2026?
Based on GuruFocus' analysis, China Tourism Group Duty Free stock appears to be undervalued.
The current stock price of $6.25 is trading 21% below its estimated GF Value™ of $7.91.
Key valuation signals for CTGDF:
Forward Rate of Return (Yacktman) %: -18.22%
GF Value™: $7.91 vs. price of $6.25 (21% below fair value)
No single metric tells the full story. See the CTGDF stock analysis page for a complete view including 30-year financials, guru trades, and insider activity.
Established in 1984, China Tourism Group Duty Free is China's largest and the world's second-largest travel retailer in 2025 with revenue of CNY 54 billion. The company primarily operates duty-free stores at airports, border crossings, offshore, downtown, and on flights, cruises and ships, with about 200 stores spanning over 33 provinces in China, as well as overseas. The company also operates a duty-paid business. Its 2025 revenue mix was 73% duty-free sales and 27% duty-paid sales and others. CTG Duty Free is 50% owned by China Tourism Group, a state-owned enterprise that falls directly under the State-owned Assets Supervision and Administration Commission of the State Council.
81GF Score
Get the complete analysis for CTGDF
Forward Rate of Return (Yacktman) % is just one metric. See GF Value™, 30-year financials, guru trades, warning signs, and more.
Quick Browse
Personalize
Premium Gurus 
Create New Portfolio
CTGDF has been successfully added to your 
