CTGDF (China Tourism Group Duty Free) Risk Assessment

Author: Vera Yuan Vera Yuan
Vera Yuan
Vera Yuan
Director of Data and Quant Analytics at GuruFocus
Focused on building reliable datasets, financial models, and research tools for value-minded investors. Committed to turning complex data into practical guidance for value-investing and long-term wealth.
Reviewed by: Charlie Tian Charlie Tian
Charlie Tian
Charlie Tian
Founder & CEO of GuruFocus
Dr. Charlie Tian is the founder and CEO of GuruFocus.com, a leading global investment research platform established in 2004. With a Ph.D. in physics, Dr. Tian transitioned from science to finance, applying a data-driven, disciplined approach to value investing.

CTGDF China Tourism Group Duty Free Corp Ltd CTGDF
61 GF Score
Price $6.25
GF Value $8.07
Valuation Modestly Undervalued
! 4 Warning Signs
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What is China Tourism Group Duty Free Risk Assessment?

Risk Assessment represents the investment risk of a stock derived from our exclusive method. It suggests how risky the investment opportunity is based on the valuation and the fundamental performance of the stock. It is derived from following key aspects:

1. GuruFocus internally developed valuations of the stock, such as GF valuation.
2. Quality Rank, a business quality indicator developed by GuruFocus.
3. Fundamental performance: Piotroski F-Score, Altman Z-Score, Beneish M-Score, etc.
4. Growth opportunities: 5-year revenue growth rate, 5-Year EPS without NRI Growth Rate, etc.

Value investors are always willing to find undervalued stocks. However, not all the undervalued stocks are good deals, we should also be careful of how risky the investment opportunity is. We believe that if the company's financial strength and profitability are strong, and the stock price is within a reasonable range of the GF valuation, or stock has a high return with its price being undervalued, then it might be a good investment opportunity with low risk.

Based on those aspects listed above, GuruFocus believes the risk assessment of China Tourism Group Duty Free is: Moderate Risk: Sensitive, better choose undervalued stock.

China Tourism Group Duty Free  (OTCPK:CTGDF) Risk Assessment Explanation

Based on the four aspects listed above, GuruFocus provides the following 7 evaluations:

All-in-One Screener Examples (1)
Low Risk: Strong fundamentals, worth long-term holding
Moderate Risk: Sensitive, better choose undervalued stock
High Risk: High uncertainty with risk-return tradeoff
High Risk: Good fundamentals, beware of shrinking business
High Risk: Sensitive to economic or industry trends
High Risk: High uncertainty
No Data: Cannot be evaluated

(1) These are some simple examples. You can access our Risk Assessment filter under All-in-One Screener’s Fundamental tab and set your own criteria.

China Tourism Group Duty Free Risk Assessment Related Terms

CTGDF vs CASY, WSM, ULTA: Risk Assessment Comparison

For the Specialty Retail subindustry, China Tourism Group Duty Free's Risk Assessment, along with its competitors' market caps and Risk Assessment data, can be viewed below:

* Competitive companies are chosen from companies within the same industry, with headquarter located in same country, with closest market capitalization; x-axis shows the market cap, and y-axis shows the term value; the bigger the dot, the larger the market cap. Note that "N/A" values will not show up in the chart.

China Tourism Group Duty Free Risk Assessment vs Retail - Cyclical Industry

For the Retail - Cyclical industry and Consumer Cyclical sector, China Tourism Group Duty Free's Risk Assessment distribution charts can be found below:

* The bar in red indicates where China Tourism Group Duty Free's Risk Assessment falls into.


CTGDF
61GF Score
China Tourism Group Duty Free Corp Ltd CTGDF
Risk Assessment is just one metric. See GF Score™, valuation, warning signs, and more.
View Full Analysis

Is China Tourism Group Duty Free (CTGDF) Overvalued in 2026?

Based on GuruFocus' analysis, China Tourism Group Duty Free stock appears to be undervalued. The current stock price of $6.25 is trading 22.6% below its estimated GF Value™ of $8.07. GuruFocus considers China Tourism Group Duty Free to be Modestly Undervalued.

Key valuation signals for CTGDF:

  • Risk Assessment:
  • GF Value™: $8.07 vs. price of $6.25 (22.6% below fair value)
  • GF Score™: 61/100 with 4 warning signs

No single metric tells the full story. See the CTGDF stock analysis page for a complete view including 30-year financials, guru trades, and insider activity.

China Tourism Group Duty Free Business Description

Other Exchanges 01880:Hong Kong601888:China
Address No. 2A, Dongzhimenwai Street, 8th Floor, Building A, Dongcheng District, Beijing, CHN, 100027
Established in 1984, China Tourism Group Duty Free is China's largest and the world's second-largest travel retailer in 2025 with revenue of CNY 54 billion. The company primarily operates duty-free stores at airports, border crossings, offshore, downtown, and on flights, cruises and ships, with about 200 stores spanning over 33 provinces in China, as well as overseas. The company also operates a duty-paid business. Its 2025 revenue mix was 73% duty-free sales and 27% duty-paid sales and others. CTG Duty Free is 50% owned by China Tourism Group, a state-owned enterprise that falls directly under the State-owned Assets Supervision and Administration Commission of the State Council.
61GF Score

Get the complete analysis for CTGDF

Risk Assessment is just one metric. See GF Value™, 30-year financials, guru trades, warning signs, and more.

$6.25
Price
$8.07
GF Value