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The Estee Lauder (The Estee Lauder) Intrinsic Value: DCF (FCF Based) : $-36.57 (As of Jul. 23, 2024)


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What is The Estee Lauder Intrinsic Value: DCF (FCF Based)?

As of today (2024-07-23), The Estee Lauder's intrinsic value calculated from the Discounted Cash Flow model is $-36.57.

Note: Discounted Cash Flow model is only suitable for predictable companies (Business Predictability Rank higher than 1-Star). If the company's predictability rank is 1-Star or Not Rated, result may not be accurate due to the low predictability of business and the data will not be stored into our database.

The Estee Lauder's Predictability Rank is 3.5-Stars.

Margin of Safety (FCF Based) using Discounted Cash Flow model for The Estee Lauder is N/A.

The industry rank for The Estee Lauder's Intrinsic Value: DCF (FCF Based) or its related term are showing as below:

EL's Price-to-DCF (FCF Based) is not ranked *
in the Consumer Packaged Goods industry.
Industry Median: 0.9
* Ranked among companies with meaningful Price-to-DCF (FCF Based) only.

The Estee Lauder Intrinsic Value: DCF (FCF Based) Historical Data

The historical data trend for The Estee Lauder's Intrinsic Value: DCF (FCF Based) can be seen below:

* For Operating Data section: All numbers are indicated by the unit behind each term and all currency related amount are in USD.
* For other sections: All numbers are in millions except for per share data, ratio, and percentage. All currency related amount are indicated in the company's associated stock exchange currency.

* Premium members only.

The Estee Lauder Intrinsic Value: DCF (FCF Based) Chart

The Estee Lauder Annual Data
Trend Jun14 Jun15 Jun16 Jun17 Jun18 Jun19 Jun20 Jun21 Jun22 Jun23
Intrinsic Value: DCF (FCF Based)
Get a 7-Day Free Trial Premium Member Only Premium Member Only 149.88 131.35 244.65 133.10 -53.80

The Estee Lauder Quarterly Data
Jun19 Sep19 Dec19 Mar20 Jun20 Sep20 Dec20 Mar21 Jun21 Sep21 Dec21 Mar22 Jun22 Sep22 Dec22 Mar23 Jun23 Sep23 Dec23 Mar24
Intrinsic Value: DCF (FCF Based) Get a 7-Day Free Trial Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only 64.09 -53.80 -46.62 -51.13 -36.57

Competitive Comparison of The Estee Lauder's Intrinsic Value: DCF (FCF Based)

For the Household & Personal Products subindustry, The Estee Lauder's Price-to-DCF (FCF Based), along with its competitors' market caps and Price-to-DCF (FCF Based) data, can be viewed below:

* Competitive companies are chosen from companies within the same industry, with headquarter located in same country, with closest market capitalization; x-axis shows the market cap, and y-axis shows the term value; the bigger the dot, the larger the market cap. Note that "N/A" values will not show up in the chart.


The Estee Lauder's Price-to-DCF (FCF Based) Distribution in the Consumer Packaged Goods Industry

For the Consumer Packaged Goods industry and Consumer Defensive sector, The Estee Lauder's Price-to-DCF (FCF Based) distribution charts can be found below:

* The bar in red indicates where The Estee Lauder's Price-to-DCF (FCF Based) falls into.



The Estee Lauder Intrinsic Value: DCF (FCF Based) Calculation

This is the intrinsic value calculated from the Discounted Cash Flow model with default parameters. In a discounted cash flow model, the future cash flow is estimated based on a cash flow growth rate and a discount rate. The cash flow of the future is discounted to its current value at the discount rate. All of the discounted future cash flow is added together to get the current intrinsic value of the company.

Usually a two-stage model is used when calculating a stock's intrinsic value using a discounted cash flow model. The first stage is called the growth stage; the second is called the terminal stage. In the growth stage the company grows at a faster rate. Because it cannot grow at that rate forever, a lower rate is used for the terminal stage.

GuruFocus DCF calculator is a two-stage model. The default values are defined as:

1. Discount Rate: d = 11%
A reasonable discount rate assumption should be at least the long term average return of the stock market, which can be estimated from risk free rate plus risk premium of stock market. GuruFocus uses 10-Year Treasury Constant Maturity Rate as the risk-free rate and rounded up to the nearest integer. It is updated daily. The current risk-free rate is 4.26%. Please go to Economic Indicators page for more information. Please note that we use the 10-Year Treasury Constant Maturity Rate of the country/region where the company is headquartered. If the data for that country/region is not available, then we will use the 10-Year Treasury Constant Maturity Rate of the United States as default. Then we added a risk premium of 6% to get the estimated discount rate. Some investors use their expected rate of return, which is also reasonable. A typical discount rate can be anywhere between 6% - 20%.

2. Growth Rate in the growth stage: g1 = 5%
The Growth Rate in the growth stage is initially set as the default 10-Year FCF Growth Rate (Per Share). In cases where the 10-year growth rate is unavailable, it defaults to using the 5-Year FCF Growth Rate (Per Share). If both the 10-year and 5-year growth rates are unavailable, the system defaults to the 3-Year FCF Growth Rate (Per Share).
However, it's important to note that there is a growth rate range. If the calculated growth rate exceeds 20%, it will be capped at 20%. Conversely, if the calculated growth rate falls below 5%, it will be adjusted to 5% to maintain a reasonable range.
=> The Estee Lauder's average Free Cash Flow Growth Rate in the past 3 years was 0.00%, which is less than 5%. GuruFocus defaults => Growth Rate: 5%

3. Years of Growth Stage: y1 = 10

4. Terminal Growth Rate: g2 = 4%

5. Years of Terminal Growth: y2 = 10

6. Free Cash Flow per Share: fcf = $-3.169.
However, GuruFocus DCF calculator is actually a Discounted Earnings calculator, the EPS without NRI is used as the default. The reason we are doing this is we found that historically stock prices are more correlated with earnings than free cash flow.

All of the default settings can be changed and the results are calculated automatically.

The Estee Lauder's Intrinsic Value: DCF (FCF Based) for today is calculated as

Intrinsic Value: DCF (FCF Based)=Free Cash Flow per Share*{[(1+g1)/(1+d)+(1+g1)^2/(1+d)^2+...+(1+g1)^10/(1+d)^10]
+(1+g1)^10/(1+d)^10*[(1+g2)/(1+d)+(1+g2)^2/(1+d)^2+...+(1+g2)^10/(1+d)^10]}

set x = (1+g1)/(1+d) = (1+0.05)/(1+0.11) = 0.94594594594595
and y = (1+g2)/(1+d) = (1+0.04)/(1+0.11) = 0.93693693693694

Intrinsic Value: DCF (FCF Based)=Free Cash Flow per Share*{[x+x^2+...+x^10]+x^10*[y+y^2+...+y^10]}
=Free Cash Flow per Share*[x*(1-x^10)/(1-x)+x^10*y*(1-y^10)/(1-y)]
=-3.169*11.5406
=-36.57

Margin of Safety (FCF Based)=(Intrinsic Value: DCF (FCF Based)-Current Price)/Intrinsic Value: DCF (FCF Based)
=(-36.57-99.96)/-36.57
=N/A

* For Operating Data section: All numbers are indicated by the unit behind each term and all currency related amount are in USD.
* For other sections: All numbers are in millions except for per share data, ratio, and percentage. All currency related amount are indicated in the company's associated stock exchange currency.


The Estee Lauder  (NYSE:EL) Intrinsic Value: DCF (FCF Based) Explanation

Unlike valuation methods such as Net Current Asset Value, Tangible Book per Share, Graham Number, Median PS Value etc, discounted Cash Flow model evaluates the companies based on their future earnings power instead of their assets.


Be Aware

What you need to know about the DCF model:

1. The DCF model evaluates a company based on its future earnings power
2. Growth is taken into account; therefore a faster growth company is worth more if everything else is the same.
3. Since we are projecting future growth, it is assumed that the company will grow at the same rate as it did during the past 10 years. Therefore this model works better for the companies that have relatively consistent performance.
4. The DCF model works poorly for inconsistent performers such as cyclicals.
5. What discount rate should you use? Your expected return from the investment is a good discount rate assumption.
6. A larger margin of safety should be required for companies with less predictable businesses.

You can screen for stocks that trade below their Intrinsic Value: DCF (FCF Based) and Intrinsic Value: DCF (Earnings Based) with the GuruFocus All-in-One Screener. Companies with a high Predictability Rank that trade at a discount to their Intrinsic Value: DCF (FCF Based) and Intrinsic Value: DCF (Earnings Based) can be found in the screen of Undervalued Predictable Companies.


The Estee Lauder Intrinsic Value: DCF (FCF Based) Related Terms

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The Estee Lauder (The Estee Lauder) Business Description

Address
767 Fifth Avenue, New York, NY, USA, 10153
Estee Lauder is a leader in the global prestige beauty market, participating across skin care (56% of 2022 sales), makeup (26%), fragrance (14%), and hair care (4%) categories, with top-selling brands such as Estee Lauder, Clinique, M.A.C, La Mer, Jo Malone London, Aveda, Bobbi Brown, and Origins. The firm operates in more than 150 countries, generating 26% of revenue from the Americas, 43% from Europe, the Middle East and Africa (including travel retail), and 31% from Asia Pacific. Estee Lauder sells its products through department stores, travel retail, specialty multibrand beauty stores, brand-dedicated freestanding stores, e-commerce, salons/spas, and perfumeries.
Executives
Charlene Barshefsky director
Jane Lauder director 767 FIFTH AVENUE, NEW YORK NY 10153
Hudis Jane Hertzmark officer: Group President C/O THE ESTEE LAUDER COMPANIES INC., 767 FIFTH AVENUE, NEW YORK NY 10153
Carl P. Haney officer: EVP-Global R&D C/O ESTEE LAUDER COMPANIES INC., 767 FIFTH AVENUE, NEW YORK NY 10153
Jennifer Hyman director 767 FIFTH AVENUE, C/O THE ESTEE LAUDER COMPANIES INC., NEW YORK NY 10153
Fabrizio Freda officer: President and COO 767 FIFTH AVENUE, NEW YORK NY 10153
De La Faverie Stephane officer: Executive Group President C/O THE ESTEE LAUDER COMPANIES INC., NEW YORK NY 10153
Michael O'hare officer: EVP-Global Human Resources 767 FIFTH AVENUE, NEW YORK NY 10153
Wei Sun Christianson director MORGAN STANLEY, TOWER 1, 18 TAIPINGQIAO ST. XICHENG DIST, BEIJING F4 1000032
Barry S Sternlicht director STARWOOD CAPITAL GROUP GLOBAL LP, 1601 WASHINGTON AVENUE, SUITE 800, MIAMI BEACH FL 33139
Angela Wei Dong director C/O THE ESTEE LAUDER COMPANIES INC., 767 FIFTH AVENUE, NEW YORK NY 10153
Peter Jueptner officer: President, International
Arturo Nunez director C/O THE ESTEE LAUDER COMPANIES INC., 767 FIFTH AVENUE, NEW YORK NY 10153
Ronald S Lauder director, 10 percent owner, officer: Chairman Clinique Labs, Inc. 767 FIFTH AVENUE, NEW YORK NY 10153
John Demsey officer: Group President 767 FIFTH AVENUE, NEW YORK NY 10036