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Roche Holding AGXSWX:RO -0.06%76 Intrinsic Value: Projected FCF is CHF203.49 as of Aug. 02, 2026, which is 100% below its 10-year median of 1.56. GuruFocus rates XSWX:RO with a GF Score™ of 76/100 and a GF Value™ of CHF270.12 (Significantly Overvalued). The stock has 7 warning signs investors should review. Among 633 Drug Manufacturers companies, Roche Holding AG ranks worse than 56.4% on this metric.
Since the intrinsic value calculations based on Discounted Cash Flow Intrinsic Value: DCF (FCF Based), or Discounted Earnings Intrinsic Value: DCF (Earnings Based) cannot be applied to companies without consistent revenue and earnings, GuruFocus developed a valuation model based on normalized Free Cash Flow and Book Value of the company. The details of how we calculate the intrinsic value of stocks are described in detail here.
As of today (2026-08-02), Roche Holding AG's Intrinsic Value: Projected FCF is CHF203.49. The stock price of Roche Holding AG is CHF358.60. Therefore, Roche Holding AG's Price-to-Intrinsic-Value-Projected-FCF of today is 1.8.
The historical rank and industry rank for Roche Holding AG's Intrinsic Value: Projected FCF or its related term are showing as below:
XSWX:RO'
s Price-to-Projected-FCF Range Over the Past 10 Years
Min: 1.23 Med: 1.56 Max: 2.03
Current: 1.76
During the past 13 years, the highest Price-to-Intrinsic-Value-Projected-FCF of Roche Holding AG was 2.03. The lowest was 1.23. And the median was 1.56.
XSWX:RO's Price-to-Projected-FCF is ranked worse than 56.4% of 633
companies
in the Drug Manufacturers industry
Industry Median: 1.53
vs XSWX:RO: 1.76
Roche Holding AG (XSWX:RO) Intrinsic Value: Projected FCF Explanation
The growth multiple is capped between 8.35 and 17.74.
Total Stockholders Equity weighting is more art than science and it should always be revisited in more detail when researching a company. Weightings from 0% to 100% to more than 100% are possible. 80% was chosen as a happy median after taking the above ideas into consideration.
Roche Holding AG's Price-to-Intrinsic-Value-Projected-FCF for today is calculated as
Price-to-Intrinsic-Value-Projected-FCF
=
Share Price
/
Intrinsic Value: Projected FCF
=
358.60
/
200.75526132132
=
1.79
* For Operating Data section: All numbers are indicated by the unit behind each term and all currency related amount are in USD. * For other sections: All numbers are in millions except for per share data, ratio, and percentage. All currency related amount are indicated in the company's associated stock exchange currency.
Roche Holding AG Intrinsic Value: Projected FCF Related Terms
Roche Holding AG Intrinsic Value: Projected FCF Historical Data
* Premium members only.
The historical data trend for Roche Holding AG's Intrinsic Value: Projected FCF can be seen below:
* For Operating Data section: All numbers are indicated by the unit behind each term and all currency related amount are in USD. * For other sections: All numbers are in millions except for per share data, ratio, and percentage. All currency related amount are indicated in the company's associated stock exchange currency.
Roche Holding AG Intrinsic Value: Projected FCF Chart
XSWX:RO vs LLY, JNJ, ABBV: Intrinsic Value: Projected FCF Comparison
For the Drug Manufacturers - General subindustry, Roche Holding AG's Price-to-Projected-FCF, along with its competitors' market caps and Price-to-Projected-FCF data, can be viewed below:
* Competitive companies are chosen from companies within the same industry, with headquarter located in same country, with closest market capitalization; x-axis shows the market cap, and y-axis shows the term value; the bigger the dot, the larger the market cap. Note that "N/A" values will not show up in the chart.
Roche Holding AG Price-to-Projected-FCF vs Drug Manufacturers Industry
For the Drug Manufacturers industry and Healthcare sector, Roche Holding AG's Price-to-Projected-FCF distribution charts can be found below:
* The bar in red indicates where Roche Holding AG's Price-to-Projected-FCF falls into.
Roche Holding AG Intrinsic Value: Projected FCF Calculation
Since the intrinsic value calculations based on Discounted Cash Flow Intrinsic Value: DCF (FCF Based), or Discounted Earnings Intrinsic Value: DCF (Earnings Based) cannot be applied to companies without consistent revenue and earnings, GuruFocus developed a valuation model based on normalized Free Cash Flow and Book Value of the company.
The details of how we calculate the intrinsic value of stocks are described in detail here.
This method smooths out the free cash flow over the past 6-7 years, multiplies the results by a growth multiple, and adds a portion of Total Stockholders Equity.
* For Operating Data section: All numbers are indicated by the unit behind each term and all currency related amount are in USD. * For other sections: All numbers are in millions except for per share data, ratio, and percentage. All currency related amount are indicated in the company's associated stock exchange currency.
What does a Intrinsic Value: Projected FCF of CHF203.49 mean?
Roche Holding AG (XSWX:RO) has a Intrinsic Value: Projected FCF of CHF203.49 as of Aug. 02, 2026. Intrinsic Value: Projected FCF is the stock value based on a projected free cash flow model. View historical data on Roche Holding AG and its competitors. This is 12944% above median its historical median of 1.56. Over the past decade, Roche Holding AG's Intrinsic Value: Projected FCF has ranged from 1.23 to 2.03. According to the industry distribution chart, Roche Holding AG ranks #357 out of 633 companies in the Drug Manufacturers industry, placing it in the top 56.4%.
Is Roche Holding AG's Intrinsic Value: Projected FCF too high?
Roche Holding AG's current Intrinsic Value: Projected FCF of CHF203.49 is 12944% above median its 10-year median of 1.56. Over the past 10 years, this metric has ranged from a low of 1.23 to a high of 2.03. Based on the distribution chart, Roche Holding AG ranks #357 out of 633 companies in the Drug Manufacturers industry, which is below the industry midpoint. Overall, Roche Holding AG has a GF Score™ of 76/100 and is considered Significantly Overvalued, reflecting its overall financial health beyond just this single metric.
How does Roche Holding AG's Intrinsic Value: Projected FCF compare to LLY and JNJ?
According to the Drug Manufacturers industry distribution chart, Roche Holding AG ranks #357 out of 633 companies for Intrinsic Value: Projected FCF. This places Roche Holding AG in the lower half of its industry. The industry median Intrinsic Value: Projected FCF is 1.53. Historically, Roche Holding AG's own Intrinsic Value: Projected FCF has ranged from 1.23 to 2.03 over the past decade. See the competitive comparison table and distribution chart on this page for a detailed peer-by-peer breakdown.
What is a good Intrinsic Value: Projected FCF for a Drug Manufacturers company?
The median Intrinsic Value: Projected FCF among Drug Manufacturers companies is 1.53, based on 633 companies in the industry. Companies in the top quartile (top 25%) have a Intrinsic Value: Projected FCF significantly above this median, while those in the bottom quartile fall well below. However, Intrinsic Value: Projected FCF should not be evaluated in isolation — investors should consider it alongside profitability, growth, and financial strength metrics. Use the industry distribution chart on this page to see where any company falls relative to its peers.
What does a high Intrinsic Value: Projected FCF mean?
A high Intrinsic Value: Projected FCF can signal that a stock is expensive relative to its fundamentals. Intrinsic Value: Projected FCF is the stock value based on a projected free cash flow model. View historical data on Roche Holding AG and its competitors. For the Drug Manufacturers industry, the median Intrinsic Value: Projected FCF is 1.53 — values significantly above this may indicate overvaluation, while values below may suggest a bargain or underlying issues. Roche Holding AG's current Intrinsic Value: Projected FCF is CHF203.49, which is 12944% above median its own 10-year median of 1.56. However, context matters — high-growth companies often justify higher valuations. Always evaluate alongside other metrics like GF Score™ and GF Value™.
Is Roche Holding AG stock overvalued right now?
Based on GuruFocus' analysis, Roche Holding AG (XSWX:RO) is currently considered Significantly Overvalued. The stock's GF Value™ is CHF270.12, compared to a current price of CHF358.60 — trading 32.8% above its estimated fair value. The current Intrinsic Value: Projected FCF is CHF203.49, which is 12944% above median its 10-year median of 1.56. Roche Holding AG's overall GF Score™ is 76/100 with 7 warning signs to review. Investors should evaluate multiple metrics — including profitability, growth, and financial strength — before making a decision.
How is Intrinsic Value: Projected FCF calculated?
Intrinsic Value: Projected FCF is calculated from a company's financial statements. For Roche Holding AG (XSWX:RO), the current Intrinsic Value: Projected FCF is CHF203.49 as of Aug. 02, 2026. GuruFocus calculates this using data sourced from SEC filings and annual reports. See the calculation section and 30-year financial data on this page for the full breakdown.
Is Roche Holding AG (XSWX:RO) Overvalued in 2026?
Based on GuruFocus' analysis, Roche Holding AG stock appears to be overvalued.
The current stock price of CHF358.60 is trading 32.8% above its estimated GF Value™ of CHF270.12.
GuruFocus considers Roche Holding AG to be Significantly Overvalued.
Key valuation signals for XSWX:RO:
Intrinsic Value: Projected FCF: CHF203.49 (12944% above median its 10-year median of 1.56)
GF Value™: CHF270.12 vs. price of CHF358.60 (32.8% above fair value)
No single metric tells the full story. See the XSWX:RO stock analysis page for a complete view including 30-year financials, guru trades, and insider activity.
Roche is a Swiss biopharmaceutical and diagnostic company. The firm's bestselling pharmaceutical products include a variety of oncology therapies from acquired partner Genentech, and its diagnostics group was bolstered by the acquisition of Ventana in 2008. Oncology products account for 40% of pharmaceutical sales, and centralized and point-of-care diagnostics for two-thirds of diagnostic-related sales.
76GF Score
Get the complete analysis for XSWX:RO
Intrinsic Value: Projected FCF is just one metric. See GF Value™, 30-year financials, guru trades, warning signs, and more.
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