Focused on building reliable datasets, financial models, and research tools for value-minded investors. Committed to turning complex data into practical guidance for value-investing and long-term wealth.
Dr. Charlie Tian is the founder and CEO of GuruFocus.com, a leading global investment research platform established in 2004. With a Ph.D. in physics, Dr. Tian transitioned from science to finance, applying a data-driven, disciplined approach to value investing.
Roche Holding AGXSWX:RO +0.83%76 Forward Rate of Return (Yacktman) % is 2.98% as of Dec. 2025, which is 58% below its 10-year median of 7.04. GuruFocus rates XSWX:RO with a GF Score™ of 76/100 and a GF Value™ of CHF268.94 (Modestly Overvalued). The stock has 7 warning signs investors should review. Among 635 Drug Manufacturers companies, Roche Holding AG ranks worse than 57.95% on this metric.
Yacktman defines forward rate of return as the normalized free cash flow yield plus real growth plus inflation. Roche Holding AG's forward rate of return for was 2.98%.
The historical rank and industry rank for Roche Holding AG's Forward Rate of Return (Yacktman) % or its related term are showing as below:
XSWX:RO'
s Forward Rate of Return (Yacktman) % Range Over the Past 10 Years
Min: 1.26 Med: 7.04 Max: 13.07
Current: 2.86
During the past 13 years, Roche Holding AG's highest Forward Rate of Return was 13.07. The lowest was 1.26. And the median was 7.04.
XSWX:RO's Forward Rate of Return (Yacktman) % is ranked worse than 57.95% of 635
companies
in the Drug Manufacturers industry
Industry Median: 6.45
vs XSWX:RO: 2.86
Unlike the Earnings Yield %, the Forward Rate of Return uses the normalized Free Cash Flow of the past five years, and considers growth. The forward rate of return can be thought of as the return that investors buying the stock today can expect from it in the future.
Roche Holding AG (XSWX:RO) Forward Rate of Return (Yacktman) % Explanation
Unlike the Earnings Yield, the Forward Rate of Return uses the normalized Free Cash Flow of the past five years, and considers growth. The forward rate of return can be thought of as the return that investors buying the stock today can expect from it in the future.
For the growth part of the Forward Rate of Return calculation, GuruFocus uses the 5-year average growth rate of EBITDA per share as the growth rate, and the growth rate is always capped at 20%. For the Free Cash Flow we use per share data averaged over five years. The reason we use five years is to make it comparable to the growth rate.
Be Aware
In the Forward Rate of Return calculation, the growth rate is added directly to today's free cash flow yield. Therefore the calculation is reliable only if the company can grow at the same rate in the future as it did in the past. Investors should pay close attention to this when researching growth stocks. A more accurate measurement for return is Return on Capital.
Roche Holding AG Forward Rate of Return (Yacktman) % Related Terms
Roche Holding AG Forward Rate of Return (Yacktman) % Historical Data
* Premium members only.
The historical data trend for Roche Holding AG's Forward Rate of Return (Yacktman) % can be seen below:
* For Operating Data section: All numbers are indicated by the unit behind each term and all currency related amount are in USD. * For other sections: All numbers are in millions except for per share data, ratio, and percentage. All currency related amount are indicated in the company's associated stock exchange currency.
Roche Holding AG Forward Rate of Return (Yacktman) % Chart
XSWX:RO vs LLY, JNJ, ABBV: Forward Rate of Return (Yacktman) % Comparison
For the Drug Manufacturers - General subindustry, Roche Holding AG's Forward Rate of Return (Yacktman) %, along with its competitors' market caps and Forward Rate of Return (Yacktman) % data, can be viewed below:
* Competitive companies are chosen from companies within the same industry, with headquarter located in same country, with closest market capitalization; x-axis shows the market cap, and y-axis shows the term value; the bigger the dot, the larger the market cap. Note that "N/A" values will not show up in the chart.
Roche Holding AG Forward Rate of Return (Yacktman) % vs Drug Manufacturers Industry
For the Drug Manufacturers industry and Healthcare sector, Roche Holding AG's Forward Rate of Return (Yacktman) % distribution charts can be found below:
* The bar in red indicates where Roche Holding AG's Forward Rate of Return (Yacktman) % falls into.
Roche Holding AG Forward Rate of Return (Yacktman) % Calculation
Forward Rate of Return is a concept that Don Yacktman uses in his investment approach. Yacktman explained the forward rate of return concept in detail in his interview with GuruFocus. Yacktman defines forward rate of return as the normalized free cash flow yield plus real growth plus inflation. He said in the interview (March 2012, when the S&P 500 was at about 1400):
If the business is stable, this calculation is fairly straightforward. For instance, on the S&P 500 we would normalize earnings. We would then calculate what percentage of those earnings are not reinvested in the underlying businesses and are therefore free. Historically, for the S&P 500, this has been just under 50% of earnings. Currently, we expect the S&P to earn about 70 on a normalized basis, a number which is far below reported earnings due to our adjusting for record high profit margins. $70 X ½ / 1400 gives you a normalized free cash flow yield of approximately 2.5%.
The historical real growth rate of the S&P 500 (companies) is about 1.5%. Assuming an inflation rate of 2.5%, the forward rate of return on an investment in the S&P 500 is about 6.5% today (2.5% free cash flow yield plus 1.5% real growth plus 2.5% inflation).
* For Operating Data section: All numbers are indicated by the unit behind each term and all currency related amount are in USD. * For other sections: All numbers are in millions except for per share data, ratio, and percentage. All currency related amount are indicated in the company's associated stock exchange currency.
What does a Forward Rate of Return (Yacktman) % of 2.98% mean?
Roche Holding AG (XSWX:RO) has a Forward Rate of Return (Yacktman) % of 2.98% as of Dec. 2025. Yacktman's forward rate of return equals the sum of normalized free-cash-flow yield plus earnings growth. View historical data on Roche Holding AG and its competitors. This is 58% below median its historical median of 7.04. Over the past decade, Roche Holding AG's Forward Rate of Return (Yacktman) % has ranged from 1.26 to 13.07. According to the industry distribution chart, Roche Holding AG ranks #368 out of 635 companies in the Drug Manufacturers industry, placing it in the top 58%.
Is Roche Holding AG's Forward Rate of Return (Yacktman) % too high?
Roche Holding AG's current Forward Rate of Return (Yacktman) % of 2.98% is 58% below median its 10-year median of 7.04. Over the past 10 years, this metric has ranged from a low of 1.26 to a high of 13.07. The Drug Manufacturers industry median Forward Rate of Return (Yacktman) % is 6.45. Roche Holding AG's value of 2.98% is 53.8% below this industry median. Based on the distribution chart, Roche Holding AG ranks #368 out of 635 companies in the Drug Manufacturers industry, which is below the industry midpoint. Overall, Roche Holding AG has a GF Score™ of 76/100 and is considered Modestly Overvalued, reflecting its overall financial health beyond just this single metric.
How does Roche Holding AG's Forward Rate of Return (Yacktman) % compare to LLY and JNJ?
According to the Drug Manufacturers industry distribution chart, Roche Holding AG ranks #368 out of 635 companies for Forward Rate of Return (Yacktman) %. This places Roche Holding AG in the lower half of its industry. The industry median Forward Rate of Return (Yacktman) % is 6.45. Roche Holding AG's value of 2.98% is 53.8% below this benchmark. Historically, Roche Holding AG's own Forward Rate of Return (Yacktman) % has ranged from 1.26 to 13.07 over the past decade. While the company's 10-year median is 7.04 vs. the industry median of 6.45, Roche Holding AG has consistently been below the industry average. See the competitive comparison table and distribution chart on this page for a detailed peer-by-peer breakdown.
What is a good Forward Rate of Return (Yacktman) % for a Drug Manufacturers company?
The median Forward Rate of Return (Yacktman) % among Drug Manufacturers companies is 6.45, based on 635 companies in the industry. Companies in the top quartile (top 25%) have a Forward Rate of Return (Yacktman) % significantly above this median, while those in the bottom quartile fall well below. However, Forward Rate of Return (Yacktman) % should not be evaluated in isolation — investors should consider it alongside profitability, growth, and financial strength metrics. Roche Holding AG's current Forward Rate of Return (Yacktman) % of 2.98% is 53.8% below the industry median. Use the industry distribution chart on this page to see where any company falls relative to its peers.
What does a high Forward Rate of Return (Yacktman) % mean?
A high Forward Rate of Return (Yacktman) % can signal that a stock is expensive relative to its fundamentals. Yacktman's forward rate of return equals the sum of normalized free-cash-flow yield plus earnings growth. View historical data on Roche Holding AG and its competitors. For the Drug Manufacturers industry, the median Forward Rate of Return (Yacktman) % is 6.45 — values significantly above this may indicate overvaluation, while values below may suggest a bargain or underlying issues. Roche Holding AG's current Forward Rate of Return (Yacktman) % is 2.98%, which is 58% below median its own 10-year median of 7.04. However, context matters — high-growth companies often justify higher valuations. Always evaluate alongside other metrics like GF Score™ and GF Value™.
Is Roche Holding AG stock overvalued right now?
Based on GuruFocus' analysis, Roche Holding AG (XSWX:RO) is currently considered Modestly Overvalued. The stock's GF Value™ is CHF268.94, compared to a current price of CHF339.60 — trading 26.3% above its estimated fair value. The current Forward Rate of Return (Yacktman) % is 2.98%, which is 58% below median its 10-year median of 7.04 and 53.8% below the Drug Manufacturers industry median of 6.45. Roche Holding AG's overall GF Score™ is 76/100 with 7 warning signs to review. Investors should evaluate multiple metrics — including profitability, growth, and financial strength — before making a decision.
How is Forward Rate of Return (Yacktman) % calculated?
Forward Rate of Return (Yacktman) % is calculated from a company's financial statements. For Roche Holding AG (XSWX:RO), the current Forward Rate of Return (Yacktman) % is 2.98% as of Dec. 2025. GuruFocus calculates this using data sourced from SEC filings and annual reports. See the calculation section and 30-year financial data on this page for the full breakdown.
Is Roche Holding AG (XSWX:RO) Overvalued in 2026?
Based on GuruFocus' analysis, Roche Holding AG stock appears to be overvalued.
The current stock price of CHF339.60 is trading 26.3% above its estimated GF Value™ of CHF268.94.
GuruFocus considers Roche Holding AG to be Modestly Overvalued.
Key valuation signals for XSWX:RO:
Forward Rate of Return (Yacktman) %: 2.98% (58% below median its 10-year median of 7.04)
GF Value™: CHF268.94 vs. price of CHF339.60 (26.3% above fair value)
Industry Position: 53.8% below the Drug Manufacturers median (#368 of 635)
No single metric tells the full story. See the XSWX:RO stock analysis page for a complete view including 30-year financials, guru trades, and insider activity.
Roche is a Swiss biopharmaceutical and diagnostic company. The firm's bestselling pharmaceutical products include a variety of oncology therapies from acquired partner Genentech, and its diagnostics group was bolstered by the acquisition of Ventana in 2008. Oncology products account for 40% of pharmaceutical sales, and centralized and point-of-care diagnostics for two-thirds of diagnostic-related sales.
76GF Score
Get the complete analysis for XSWX:RO
Forward Rate of Return (Yacktman) % is just one metric. See GF Value™, 30-year financials, guru trades, warning signs, and more.
Quick Browse
Personalize
Premium Gurus 
Create New Portfolio
XSWX:RO has been successfully added to your 
