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ZTO Express (Cayman)ZTO +0.48%96 Intrinsic Value: Projected FCF is $37.32 as of Sep. 20, 2026. GuruFocus rates ZTO with a GF Score™ of 96/100 and a GF Value™ of $28.27 (Modestly Undervalued). Among 733 Transportation companies, ZTO Express (Cayman) ranks better than 68.62% on this metric.
Since the intrinsic value calculations based on Discounted Cash Flow Intrinsic Value: DCF (FCF Based), or Discounted Earnings Intrinsic Value: DCF (Earnings Based) cannot be applied to companies without consistent revenue and earnings, GuruFocus developed a valuation model based on normalized Free Cash Flow and Book Value of the company. The details of how we calculate the intrinsic value of stocks are described in detail here.
The historical rank and industry rank for ZTO Express (Cayman)'s Intrinsic Value: Projected FCF or its related term are showing as below:
ZTO'
s Price-to-Projected-FCF Range Over the Past 10 Years
Min: 0.54 Med: 0.86 Max: 2.22
Current: 0.56
During the past 12 years, the highest Price-to-Intrinsic-Value-Projected-FCF of ZTO Express (Cayman) was 2.22. The lowest was 0.54. And the median was 0.86.
ZTO's Price-to-Projected-FCF is ranked better than 68.62% of 733
companies
in the Transportation industry
Industry Median: 0.86
vs ZTO: 0.56
The growth multiple is capped between 8.35 and 17.74.
Total Stockholders Equity weighting is more art than science and it should always be revisited in more detail when researching a company. Weightings from 0% to 100% to more than 100% are possible. 80% was chosen as a happy median after taking the above ideas into consideration.
ZTO Express (Cayman)'s Price-to-Intrinsic-Value-Projected-FCF for today is calculated as
Price-to-Intrinsic-Value-Projected-FCF
=
Share Price
/
Intrinsic Value: Projected FCF
=
20.96
/
37.082986355095
=
0.57
* For Operating Data section: All numbers are indicated by the unit behind each term and all currency related amount are in USD. * For other sections: All numbers are in millions except for per share data, ratio, and percentage. All currency related amount are indicated in the company's associated stock exchange currency.
ZTO Express (Cayman) Intrinsic Value: Projected FCF Related Terms
ZTO Express (Cayman) Intrinsic Value: Projected FCF Historical Data
* Premium members only.
The historical data trend for ZTO Express (Cayman)'s Intrinsic Value: Projected FCF can be seen below:
* For Operating Data section: All numbers are indicated by the unit behind each term and all currency related amount are in USD. * For other sections: All numbers are in millions except for per share data, ratio, and percentage. All currency related amount are indicated in the company's associated stock exchange currency.
ZTO vs CHRW, FDXF, JBHT: Intrinsic Value: Projected FCF Comparison
For the Integrated Freight & Logistics subindustry, ZTO Express (Cayman)'s Price-to-Projected-FCF, along with its competitors' market caps and Price-to-Projected-FCF data, can be viewed below:
* Competitive companies are chosen from companies within the same industry, with headquarter located in same country, with closest market capitalization; x-axis shows the market cap, and y-axis shows the term value; the bigger the dot, the larger the market cap. Note that "N/A" values will not show up in the chart.
ZTO Express (Cayman) Price-to-Projected-FCF vs Transportation Industry
For the Transportation industry and Industrials sector, ZTO Express (Cayman)'s Price-to-Projected-FCF distribution charts can be found below:
* The bar in red indicates where ZTO Express (Cayman)'s Price-to-Projected-FCF falls into.
Since the intrinsic value calculations based on Discounted Cash Flow Intrinsic Value: DCF (FCF Based), or Discounted Earnings Intrinsic Value: DCF (Earnings Based) cannot be applied to companies without consistent revenue and earnings, GuruFocus developed a valuation model based on normalized Free Cash Flow and Book Value of the company.
The details of how we calculate the intrinsic value of stocks are described in detail here.
This method smooths out the free cash flow over the past 6-7 years, multiplies the results by a growth multiple, and adds a portion of Total Stockholders Equity.
* For Operating Data section: All numbers are indicated by the unit behind each term and all currency related amount are in USD. * For other sections: All numbers are in millions except for per share data, ratio, and percentage. All currency related amount are indicated in the company's associated stock exchange currency.
What does a Intrinsic Value: Projected FCF of $37.32 mean?
ZTO Express (Cayman) (ZTO) has a Intrinsic Value: Projected FCF of $37.32 as of Sep. 20, 2026. Intrinsic Value: Projected FCF is the stock value based on a projected free cash flow model. View historical data on ZTO Express (Cayman) and its competitors. According to the industry distribution chart, ZTO Express (Cayman) ranks #230 out of 733 companies in the Transportation industry, placing it in the top 31.4%.
Is ZTO Express (Cayman)'s Intrinsic Value: Projected FCF too high?
ZTO Express (Cayman)'s current Intrinsic Value: Projected FCF is $37.32. The Transportation industry median Intrinsic Value: Projected FCF is 0.86. ZTO Express (Cayman)'s value of $37.32 is 4239.5% above this industry median. Based on the distribution chart, ZTO Express (Cayman) ranks #230 out of 733 companies in the Transportation industry, which is above the industry midpoint. Overall, ZTO Express (Cayman) has a GF Score™ of 96/100 and is considered Modestly Undervalued, reflecting its overall financial health beyond just this single metric.
How does ZTO Express (Cayman)'s Intrinsic Value: Projected FCF compare to CHRW and FDXF?
According to the Transportation industry distribution chart, ZTO Express (Cayman) ranks #230 out of 733 companies for Intrinsic Value: Projected FCF. This puts ZTO Express (Cayman) in the upper half of its industry. The industry median Intrinsic Value: Projected FCF is 0.86. ZTO Express (Cayman)'s value of $37.32 is 4239.5% above this benchmark. See the competitive comparison table and distribution chart on this page for a detailed peer-by-peer breakdown.
What is a good Intrinsic Value: Projected FCF for a Transportation company?
The median Intrinsic Value: Projected FCF among Transportation companies is 0.86, based on 733 companies in the industry. Companies in the top quartile (top 25%) have a Intrinsic Value: Projected FCF significantly above this median, while those in the bottom quartile fall well below. However, Intrinsic Value: Projected FCF should not be evaluated in isolation — investors should consider it alongside profitability, growth, and financial strength metrics. ZTO Express (Cayman)'s current Intrinsic Value: Projected FCF of $37.32 is 4239.5% above the industry median. Use the industry distribution chart on this page to see where any company falls relative to its peers.
What does a high Intrinsic Value: Projected FCF mean?
A high Intrinsic Value: Projected FCF can signal that a stock is expensive relative to its fundamentals. Intrinsic Value: Projected FCF is the stock value based on a projected free cash flow model. View historical data on ZTO Express (Cayman) and its competitors. For the Transportation industry, the median Intrinsic Value: Projected FCF is 0.86 — values significantly above this may indicate overvaluation, while values below may suggest a bargain or underlying issues. ZTO Express (Cayman)'s current Intrinsic Value: Projected FCF is $37.32. However, context matters — high-growth companies often justify higher valuations. Always evaluate alongside other metrics like GF Score™ and GF Value™.
Is ZTO Express (Cayman) stock overvalued right now?
Based on GuruFocus' analysis, ZTO Express (Cayman) (ZTO) is currently considered Modestly Undervalued. The stock's GF Value™ is $28.27, compared to a current price of $20.96 — trading 25.9% below its estimated fair value. The current Intrinsic Value: Projected FCF is $37.32 and 4239.5% above the Transportation industry median of 0.86. ZTO Express (Cayman)'s overall GF Score™ is 96/100. Investors should evaluate multiple metrics — including profitability, growth, and financial strength — before making a decision.
How is Intrinsic Value: Projected FCF calculated?
Intrinsic Value: Projected FCF is calculated from a company's financial statements. For ZTO Express (Cayman) (ZTO), the current Intrinsic Value: Projected FCF is $37.32 as of Sep. 20, 2026. GuruFocus calculates this using data sourced from SEC filings and annual reports. See the calculation section and 30-year financial data on this page for the full breakdown.
Is ZTO Express (Cayman) (ZTO) Overvalued in 2026?
Based on GuruFocus' analysis, ZTO Express (Cayman) stock appears to be undervalued.
The current stock price of $20.96 is trading 25.9% below its estimated GF Value™ of $28.27.
GuruFocus considers ZTO Express (Cayman) to be Modestly Undervalued.
Key valuation signals for ZTO:
Intrinsic Value: Projected FCF: $37.32
GF Value™: $28.27 vs. price of $20.96 (25.9% below fair value)
Industry Position: 4239.5% above the Transportation median (#230 of 733)
No single metric tells the full story. See the ZTO stock analysis page for a complete view including 30-year financials, guru trades, and insider activity.
ZTO Express is China's largest express delivery company by parcel volume, with a volume share of 19.4% in 2024. It operates a network partner model where it provides line-haul transportation and sorting services, while its local network partners provide first-mile pickup and last-mile delivery services under the ZTO brand name. Headquartered in Shanghai, the company was founded in 2002 by Meisong Lai, who remains chair, CEO, and its major shareholder with 78% voting rights as of March 31, 2025. ZTO's strategic shareholder is leading China e-commerce company Alibaba Group with around an 8.9% interest.
96GF Score
Get the complete analysis for ZTO
Intrinsic Value: Projected FCF is just one metric. See GF Value™, 30-year financials, guru trades, warning signs, and more.
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