Cheesecake Factory (NAS:CAKE) Intrinsic Value: DCF (Earnings Based)

: $11.74 (As of Today)

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As of today (2023-06-08), Cheesecake Factory's intrinsic value calculated from the Discounted Earnings model is $11.74.

Note: Discounted Earnings model is only suitable for predictable companies (Business Predictability Rank higher than 1-Star). If the company's predictability rank is 1-Star or Not Rated, result may not be accurate due to the low predictability of business and the data will not be stored into our database.

Cheesecake Factory's Predictability Rank is 1-Star. Thus, this page is only used for demonstration purposes and the DCF related results in the screener and portfolio will appear as zero.

Margin of Safety (Earnings Based) using Discounted Earnings model for Cheesecake Factory is -185.95%.

The historical rank and industry rank for Cheesecake Factory's Intrinsic Value: DCF (Earnings Based) or its related term are showing as below:

During the past 13 years, the highest Price-to-Intrinsic-Value-DCF (Earnings Based) Ratio of Cheesecake Factory was 1.83. The lowest was 0.43. And the median was 0.98.

CAKE's Price-to-DCF (Earnings Based) is not ranked ^*
in the Restaurants industry.
Industry Median: 1.91
* Ranked among companies with meaningful Price-to-DCF (Earnings Based) only.

Cheesecake Factory Intrinsic Value: DCF (Earnings Based) Historical Data

The historical data trend for Cheesecake Factory's Intrinsic Value: DCF (Earnings Based) can be seen below:

* For Operating Data section: All numbers are indicated by the unit behind each term and all currency related amount are in USD.
* For other sections: All numbers are in millions except for per share data, ratio, and percentage. All currency related amount are indicated in the company's associated stock exchange currency.

* Premium members only.

Cheesecake Factory Annual Data

Trend

Dec13

Dec14

Dec15

Dec16

Dec17

Dec18

Dec19

Dec20

Dec21

Dec22

Intrinsic Value: DCF (Earnings Based)

51.67

65.69

Cheesecake Factory Quarterly Data
	Jun18	Sep18	Dec18	Mar19	Jun19	Sep19	Dec19	Mar20	Jun20	Sep20	Dec20	Mar21	Jun21	Sep21	Dec21	Mar22	Jun22	Sep22	Dec22	Mar23
Intrinsic Value: DCF (Earnings Based)																-	-	-	-	-

Cheesecake Factory Intrinsic Value: DCF (Earnings Based) Calculation

This is the intrinsic value calculated from the Discounted Earnings model with default parameters. The calculation method is the same as Discounted Cash Flow model except earnings are used in the calculation instead of free cash flow. This is the default method of calculation with GuruFocus DCF calculator.

Usually a two-stage model is used in calculating the intrinsic value with discounted cash flow model. The first stage is called growth stage; the second is called the terminal stage. In the growth stage the company grows at a faster rate. Because it cannot grow at that rate forever, a lower rate is used for the terminal stage.

GuruFocus DCF calculator is a two-stage model. The default values are defined as:

1. Discount Rate: d = 10%
A reasonable discount rate assumption should be at least the long term average return of the stock market, which can be estimated from risk free rate plus risk premium of stock market. We used the 10-Year Treasury Constant Maturity Rate as the risk free rate and rounded up to the nearest integer, then added a risk premium of 6% to get the estimated discount rate. Some investors use their expected rate of return, which is also reasonable. A typical discount rate can be anywhere between 6% - 20%.

2. Growth Rate in the growth stage: g1 = 5%
Growth Rate in the growth stage = average earnings growth rate in the past 10 years. If it is higher than 20%, we use 20%. If it is less than 5%, we use 5% instead. => For companies with Average Earnings Growth Rate in the past 10 years less than 5%, GuruFocus defaults => Growth Rate: 5%

3. Years of Growth Stage: y1 = 10

4. Terminal Growth Rate: g2 = 4%

5. Years of Terminal Growth: y2 = 10

6. EPS without NRI: eps without nri = $0.940.
GuruFocus DCF calculator is actually a Discounted Earnings calculator, EPS without NRI is used as the default. The reason we are doing this is we found that historically stock prices are more correlated with earnings than free cash flow.

All of the default settings can be changed and the results are calculated automatically.

Cheesecake Factory's Intrinsic Value: DCF (Earnings Based) for today is calculated as:

Intrinsic Value: DCF (Earnings Based)	=	EPS without NRI	*	{[(1+g1)/(1+d)	+	(1+g1)^2/(1+d)^2	+	...	+	(1+g1)^10/(1+d)^10]
	+	(1+g1)^10/(1+d)^10	*	[(1+g2)/(1+d)	+	(1+g2)^2/(1+d)^2	+	...	+	(1+g2)^10/(1+d)^10]}

set x = (1+g1)/(1+d) = (1+0.05)/(1+0.1) = 0.95454545454545
and y = (1+g2)/(1+d) = (1+0.04)/(1+0.1) = 0.94545454545455

Intrinsic Value: DCF (Earnings Based)

EPS without NRI

{[x

x^2

...

x^10]

x^10

y^2

...

y^10]}

EPS without NRI

(1-x^10)

(1-x)

x^10

(1-y^10)

(1-y)]

0.940

12.485

11.74

Margin of Safety % (DCF Earnings Based)	=	(Intrinsic Value: DCF (Earnings Based)	-	Current Price)	/	Intrinsic Value: DCF (Earnings Based)
	=	(11.74	-	33.57)	/	11.74
	=	-185.95 %

Cheesecake Factory (NAS:CAKE) Intrinsic Value: DCF (Earnings Based) Explanation

Unlike valuation methods such as Net Current Asset Value, Tangible Book Value per Share, Graham Number, Median Ratio etc, discounted Cash Flow model evaluates the companies based on their future earnings power instead of their assets.

Be Aware

What you need to know about Discounted Earnings model:

1. The Discounted Earnings model evaluates a company based on its future earnings power
2. Growth is taken into account; therefore a faster growth company is worth more if everything else is the same.
3. Since we are projecting future growth, it is assumed that the company will grow at the same rate as it did during the past 10 years. Therefore this model works better for the companies that are relatively consistent performers.
4. The Discounted Earnings model works poorly for inconsistent performers like cyclicals.
5. Your expected return from the investment is a reasonable discount rate assumption.
6. A larger margin of safety should be required for companies with less predictable businesses.

You can screen for stocks that trade below their Intrinsic Value: DCF (FCF Based) and Intrinsic Value: DCF (Earnings Based) with the GuruFocus All-in-One Screener. Companies with a high Predictability Rank that trade at a discount to their Intrinsic Value: DCF (FCF Based) and Intrinsic Value: DCF (Earnings Based) can be found in the screen of Undervalued Predictable Companies.

Cheesecake Factory Intrinsic Value: DCF (Earnings Based) Related Terms

Thank you for viewing the detailed overview of Cheesecake Factory's Intrinsic Value: DCF (Earnings Based) provided by GuruFocus.com. Please click on the following links to see related term pages.

Cheesecake Factory (NAS:CAKE) Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Consumer Cyclical » Restaurants » Cheesecake Factory Inc (NAS:CAKE) » Definitions » Intrinsic Value: DCF (Earnings Based)

Comparable Companies

Traded in Other Exchanges

CAKE:Mexico CF2:Germany

Address

26901 Malibu Hills Road, Calabasas Hills, CA, USA, 91301

Website

https://www.thecheesecakefactory.com

Cheesecake Factory owns and operates restaurants in the United States and Canada under brands that include The Cheesecake Factory, North Italia, and a collection within the Fox Restaurants Concepts subsidiary. The company's international presence, in the Middle East and Mexico, is through licensing agreements with third parties. The company also has a bakery division that produces cheesecakes and other baked products for sale in its restaurants, international licensees, and third-party bakery customers. The company has four operating business segments: The Cheesecake Factory restaurants, North Italia, other FRC, and Flower Child. Most of the company's revenue comes from The Cheesecake Factory restaurants segment.

Executives

Adam S. Gordon	director	26901 MALIBU HILLS ROAD, CALABASAS CA 91301
Khanh Collins	director	22825 QUEENSBRIDGE DRIVE, ASHBURN VA 20148
Paul D. Ginsberg	director	C/O ROARK CAPITAL, 1180 PEACHTREE STREET NE, SUITE 2500, ATLANTA GA 30309
Rc Cake Holdings Llc	10 percent owner	1180 PEACHTREE STREET NE, SUITE 2500, ATLANTA GA 30309
Janice L. Meyer	director	26901 MALIBU HILLS ROAD, CALABASAS CA 91301
Scarlett May	officer: EVP, General Counsel	26901 MALIBU HILLS ROAD, CALABASAS HILLS CA 91301
Keith Carango	officer: President (Subsidiary)	26901 MALIBU HILLS ROAD, CALABASAS HILLS CA 91301
Edie A Ames	director	C/O MORTONS RESTATURANT GROUP, INC., 325 LASALLE STREET, SUITE 500, CHICAGO IL 60610
Doug Benn	officer: Executive VP, CFO	C/O INNOVATIVE RESTAURANTS CONCEPT INC, 1640 POWERS FERRY RD BLDG 2 STE 300, MARIETTA GA 30067-9400
David M Gordon	officer: President	C/O THE CHEESECAKE FACTORY INCORPORATED, 26901 MALIBU HILLS DRIVE, CALABASAS HILLS CA 91301
Douglas L Schmick	director	720 SW WASHINGTON STREET, SUITE 550, PORTLAND OR 97205
Laurence B Mindel	director	IL FORNAIO AMERICA CORP, 770 TAMAPAIS DR STE 400, CORTE MADERA CA 94925
Herbert Simon	director	115 W WASHINGTON ST, INDIANAPOLIS IN 46204
Michael E Jannini	officer: President	C/O 26901 MALIBU HILLS DRIVE, CALABASAS HILLS CA 91301
David Bruce Pittaway	director	150 E 58TH ST, STE 3700, NEW YORK NY 10155