General Mills (NYSE:GIS) Intrinsic Value: DCF (Earnings Based)

: $62.64 (As of Today)

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As of today (2023-03-22), General Mills's intrinsic value calculated from the Discounted Earnings model is $62.64.

Note: Discounted Earnings model is only suitable for predictable companies (Business Predictability Rank higher than 1-Star). If the company's predictability rank is 1-Star or Not Rated, result may not be accurate due to the low predictability of business and the data will not be stored into our database.

General Mills's Predictability Rank is 2-Stars.

Margin of Safety (Earnings Based) using Discounted Earnings model for General Mills is -29.42%.

The historical rank and industry rank for General Mills's Intrinsic Value: DCF (Earnings Based) or its related term are showing as below:

GIS' s Price-to-DCF (Earnings Based) Range Over the Past 10 Years
Min: 0.66 Med: 1.06 Max: 1.97
Current: 1.29

During the past 13 years, the highest Price-to-Intrinsic-Value-DCF (Earnings Based) Ratio of General Mills was 1.97. The lowest was 0.66. And the median was 1.06.

GIS's Price-to-DCF (Earnings Based) is ranked worse than
67.52% of 234 companies
in the Consumer Packaged Goods industry
Industry Median: 0.85 vs GIS: 1.29

General Mills Intrinsic Value: DCF (Earnings Based) Historical Data

The historical data trend for General Mills's Intrinsic Value: DCF (Earnings Based) can be seen below:

* For Operating Data section: All numbers are indicated by the unit behind each term and all currency related amount are in USD.
* For other sections: All numbers are in millions except for per share data, ratio, and percentage. All currency related amount are indicated in the company's associated stock exchange currency.

* Premium members only.

General Mills Annual Data

Trend

May13

May14

May15

May16

May17

May18

May19

May20

May21

May22

Intrinsic Value: DCF (Earnings Based)

55.72

62.80

General Mills Quarterly Data
	Feb18	May18	Aug18	Nov18	Feb19	May19	Aug19	Nov19	Feb20	May20	Aug20	Nov20	Feb21	May21	Aug21	Nov21	Feb22	May22	Aug22	Nov22
Intrinsic Value: DCF (Earnings Based)																53.50	55.27	62.80	62.12	62.64

General Mills Intrinsic Value: DCF (Earnings Based) Calculation

This is the intrinsic value calculated from the Discounted Earnings model with default parameters. The calculation method is the same as Discounted Cash Flow model except earnings are used in the calculation instead of free cash flow. This is the default method of calculation with GuruFocus DCF calculator.

Usually a two-stage model is used in calculating the intrinsic value with discounted cash flow model. The first stage is called growth stage; the second is called the terminal stage. In the growth stage the company grows at a faster rate. Because it cannot grow at that rate forever, a lower rate is used for the terminal stage.

GuruFocus DCF calculator is a two-stage model. The default values are defined as:

1. Discount Rate: d = 10%
A reasonable discount rate assumption should be at least the long term average return of the stock market, which can be estimated from risk free rate plus risk premium of stock market. We used the 10-Year Treasury Constant Maturity Rate as the risk free rate and rounded up to the nearest integer, then added a risk premium of 6% to get the estimated discount rate. Some investors use their expected rate of return, which is also reasonable. A typical discount rate can be anywhere between 6% - 20%.

2. Growth Rate in the growth stage: g1 = 5.70%
Growth Rate in the growth stage = average earnings growth rate in the past 10 years. If it is higher than 20%, we use 20%. If it is less than 5%, we use 5% instead. => Average Earnings Growth Rate in the past 10 years was 5.70% which is less than 20% and higher than 5% => Growth Rate: 5.70%

3. Years of Growth Stage: y1 = 10

4. Terminal Growth Rate: g2 = 4%

5. Years of Terminal Growth: y2 = 10

6. EPS without NRI: eps without nri = $4.790.
GuruFocus DCF calculator is actually a Discounted Earnings calculator, EPS without NRI is used as the default. The reason we are doing this is we found that historically stock prices are more correlated with earnings than free cash flow.

All of the default settings can be changed and the results are calculated automatically.

General Mills's Intrinsic Value: DCF (Earnings Based) for today is calculated as:

Intrinsic Value: DCF (Earnings Based)	=	EPS without NRI	*	{[(1+g1)/(1+d)	+	(1+g1)^2/(1+d)^2	+	...	+	(1+g1)^10/(1+d)^10]
	+	(1+g1)^10/(1+d)^10	*	[(1+g2)/(1+d)	+	(1+g2)^2/(1+d)^2	+	...	+	(1+g2)^10/(1+d)^10]}

set x = (1+g1)/(1+d) = (1+0.057)/(1+0.1) = 0.96090909090909
and y = (1+g2)/(1+d) = (1+0.04)/(1+0.1) = 0.94545454545455

Intrinsic Value: DCF (Earnings Based)

EPS without NRI

{[x

x^2

...

x^10]

x^10

y^2

...

y^10]}

EPS without NRI

(1-x^10)

(1-x)

x^10

(1-y^10)

(1-y)]

4.790

13.0777

62.64

Margin of Safety % (DCF Earnings Based)	=	(Intrinsic Value: DCF (Earnings Based)	-	Current Price)	/	Intrinsic Value: DCF (Earnings Based)
	=	(62.64	-	81.07)	/	62.64
	=	-29.42 %

General Mills (NYSE:GIS) Intrinsic Value: DCF (Earnings Based) Explanation

Unlike valuation methods such as Net Current Asset Value, Tangible Book Value per Share, Graham Number, Median Ratio etc, discounted Cash Flow model evaluates the companies based on their future earnings power instead of their assets.

Be Aware

What you need to know about Discounted Earnings model:

1. The Discounted Earnings model evaluates a company based on its future earnings power
2. Growth is taken into account; therefore a faster growth company is worth more if everything else is the same.
3. Since we are projecting future growth, it is assumed that the company will grow at the same rate as it did during the past 10 years. Therefore this model works better for the companies that are relatively consistent performers.
4. The Discounted Earnings model works poorly for inconsistent performers like cyclicals.
5. Your expected return from the investment is a reasonable discount rate assumption.
6. A larger margin of safety should be required for companies with less predictable businesses.

You can screen for stocks that trade below their Intrinsic Value: DCF (FCF Based) and Intrinsic Value: DCF (Earnings Based) with the GuruFocus All-in-One Screener. Companies with a high Predictability Rank that trade at a discount to their Intrinsic Value: DCF (FCF Based) and Intrinsic Value: DCF (Earnings Based) can be found in the screen of Undervalued Predictable Companies.

General Mills Intrinsic Value: DCF (Earnings Based) Related Terms

Thank you for viewing the detailed overview of General Mills's Intrinsic Value: DCF (Earnings Based) provided by GuruFocus.com. Please click on the following links to see related term pages.

General Mills (NYSE:GIS) Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Consumer Defensive » Consumer Packaged Goods » General Mills Inc (NYSE:GIS) » Definitions » Intrinsic Value: DCF (Earnings Based)

Comparable Companies

Traded in Other Exchanges

GIS:Mexico GRM:Germany G1MI34:Brazil

Address

Number One General Mills Boulevard, Minneapolis, MN, USA, 55426

Website

https://www.generalmills.com

General Mills is a leading global packaged food company that produces snacks, cereal, convenient meals, yogurt, dough, baking mixes and ingredients, pet food, and superpremium ice cream. Its largest brands are Nature Valley, Cheerios, Old El Paso, Yoplait, Pillsbury, Betty Crocker, BLUE, and Haagen-Dazs. In fiscal 2022, 77% of its revenue was derived from the United States, although the company also operates in Canada, Europe, Australia, Asia, and Latin America. While most of General Mills' products are sold through retail stores to consumers, the company also sells products into the food-service channel and the commercial baking industry.

Executives

C Kim Goodwin	director	C/O AKAMAI TECHNOLOGIES, INC., 8 CAMBRIDGE CENTER, CAMBRIDGE MA 02142
Karen Wilson Thissen	officer: General Counsel & Secretary	1098 AMERIPRISE FINANCIAL CENTER, MINNEAPOLIS MN 55474
Paul Joseph Gallagher	officer: Chief Supply Chain Officer	1 GENERAL MILLS BLVD, MINNEAPOLIS MN 55426
Jaime Montemayor	officer: Chief Technology Officer	NUMBER ONE GENERAL MILLS BLVD, MINNEAPOLIS MN 55426
Mark A Pallot	officer: Chief Accounting Officer	NUMBER ONE GENERAL MILLS BLVD, MINNEAPOLIS MN 55426
Jo Ann Jenkins	director	2211 SOUTH 47TH STREET, PHOENIX AZ 85034
Dana M Mcnabb	officer: Group President	NUMBER ONE GENERAL MILLS BLVD, MINNEAPOLIS MN 55426
Elizabeth Cahill Lempres	director	TWO COMMERCE SQUARE, 2001 MARKET STREET, SUITE 3600, PHILADELPHIA PA 19103
Sean N Walker	officer: Group President	NUMBER ONE GENERAL MILLS BLVD, MINNEAPOLIS MN 55426
Diane L Neal	director
Jodi J Benson	officer: Chief Innovation Officer	GENERAL MILLS, INC., ONE GENERAL MILLS BLVD, MINNEAPOLIS MN 55426
Maria Sastre	director	C/O DARDEN RESTAURANTS, INC., 1000 DARDEN CENTER DRIVE, ORLANDO FL 32837
Bishop William W Jr	officer: Group President	C/O BLUE BUFFALO PET PRODUCTS, INC., 11 RIVER ROAD, WILTON CT 06897
Kofi A Bruce	officer: Vice President	GENERAL MILLS, INC., ONE GENERAL MILLS BLVD., MINNEAPOLIS MN 55426
Ivan Pollard	officer: Senior Vice President	GENERAL MILLS, INC., ONE GENERAL MILLS BLVD., MINNEAPOLIS MN 55426