GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » USA » NYSE » General Mills Inc (NYSE:GIS) » Definitions » Intrinsic Value: DCF (Earnings Based)
Switch to:

General Mills (NYSE:GIS) Intrinsic Value: DCF (Earnings Based)

: $62.64 (As of Today)
View and export this data going back to 1952. Start your Free Trial

As of today (2023-03-22), General Mills's intrinsic value calculated from the Discounted Earnings model is $62.64.

Note: Discounted Earnings model is only suitable for predictable companies (Business Predictability Rank higher than 1-Star). If the company's predictability rank is 1-Star or Not Rated, result may not be accurate due to the low predictability of business and the data will not be stored into our database.

General Mills's Predictability Rank is 2-Stars.

Margin of Safety (Earnings Based) using Discounted Earnings model for General Mills is -29.42%.

The historical rank and industry rank for General Mills's Intrinsic Value: DCF (Earnings Based) or its related term are showing as below:

GIS' s Price-to-DCF (Earnings Based) Range Over the Past 10 Years
Min: 0.66   Med: 1.06   Max: 1.97
Current: 1.29

During the past 13 years, the highest Price-to-Intrinsic-Value-DCF (Earnings Based) Ratio of General Mills was 1.97. The lowest was 0.66. And the median was 1.06.

GIS's Price-to-DCF (Earnings Based) is ranked worse than
67.52% of 234 companies
in the Consumer Packaged Goods industry
Industry Median: 0.85 vs GIS: 1.29

General Mills Intrinsic Value: DCF (Earnings Based) Historical Data

The historical data trend for General Mills's Intrinsic Value: DCF (Earnings Based) can be seen below:

* For Operating Data section: All numbers are indicated by the unit behind each term and all currency related amount are in USD.
* For other sections: All numbers are in millions except for per share data, ratio, and percentage. All currency related amount are indicated in the company's associated stock exchange currency.

* Premium members only.

General Mills Annual Data
Trend May13 May14 May15 May16 May17 May18 May19 May20 May21 May22
Intrinsic Value: DCF (Earnings Based)
Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only - - - 55.72 62.80

General Mills Quarterly Data
Feb18 May18 Aug18 Nov18 Feb19 May19 Aug19 Nov19 Feb20 May20 Aug20 Nov20 Feb21 May21 Aug21 Nov21 Feb22 May22 Aug22 Nov22
Intrinsic Value: DCF (Earnings Based) Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only 53.50 55.27 62.80 62.12 62.64

General Mills Intrinsic Value: DCF (Earnings Based) Calculation

This is the intrinsic value calculated from the Discounted Earnings model with default parameters. The calculation method is the same as Discounted Cash Flow model except earnings are used in the calculation instead of free cash flow. This is the default method of calculation with GuruFocus DCF calculator.

Usually a two-stage model is used in calculating the intrinsic value with discounted cash flow model. The first stage is called growth stage; the second is called the terminal stage. In the growth stage the company grows at a faster rate. Because it cannot grow at that rate forever, a lower rate is used for the terminal stage.

GuruFocus DCF calculator is a two-stage model. The default values are defined as:

1. Discount Rate: d = 10%
A reasonable discount rate assumption should be at least the long term average return of the stock market, which can be estimated from risk free rate plus risk premium of stock market. We used the 10-Year Treasury Constant Maturity Rate as the risk free rate and rounded up to the nearest integer, then added a risk premium of 6% to get the estimated discount rate. Some investors use their expected rate of return, which is also reasonable. A typical discount rate can be anywhere between 6% - 20%.

2. Growth Rate in the growth stage: g1 = 5.70%
Growth Rate in the growth stage = average earnings growth rate in the past 10 years. If it is higher than 20%, we use 20%. If it is less than 5%, we use 5% instead. => Average Earnings Growth Rate in the past 10 years was 5.70% which is less than 20% and higher than 5% => Growth Rate: 5.70%

3. Years of Growth Stage: y1 = 10

4. Terminal Growth Rate: g2 = 4%

5. Years of Terminal Growth: y2 = 10

6. EPS without NRI: eps without nri = $4.790.
GuruFocus DCF calculator is actually a Discounted Earnings calculator, EPS without NRI is used as the default. The reason we are doing this is we found that historically stock prices are more correlated with earnings than free cash flow.

All of the default settings can be changed and the results are calculated automatically.

General Mills's Intrinsic Value: DCF (Earnings Based) for today is calculated as:

Intrinsic Value: DCF (Earnings Based)=EPS without NRI*{[(1+g1)/(1+d)+(1+g1)^2/(1+d)^2+...+(1+g1)^10/(1+d)^10]
+(1+g1)^10/(1+d)^10*[(1+g2)/(1+d)+(1+g2)^2/(1+d)^2+...+(1+g2)^10/(1+d)^10]}

set x = (1+g1)/(1+d) = (1+0.057)/(1+0.1) = 0.96090909090909
and y = (1+g2)/(1+d) = (1+0.04)/(1+0.1) = 0.94545454545455

Intrinsic Value: DCF (Earnings Based)=EPS without NRI*{[x+x^2+...+x^10]+x^10*[y+y^2+...+y^10]}
=EPS without NRI*[x*(1-x^10)/(1-x)+x^10*y*(1-y^10)/(1-y)]
=4.790*13.0777
=62.64

Margin of Safety % (DCF Earnings Based)=(Intrinsic Value: DCF (Earnings Based)-Current Price)/Intrinsic Value: DCF (Earnings Based)
=(62.64-81.07)/62.64
=-29.42 %

* For Operating Data section: All numbers are indicated by the unit behind each term and all currency related amount are in USD.
* For other sections: All numbers are in millions except for per share data, ratio, and percentage. All currency related amount are indicated in the company's associated stock exchange currency.


General Mills  (NYSE:GIS) Intrinsic Value: DCF (Earnings Based) Explanation

Unlike valuation methods such as Net Current Asset Value, Tangible Book Value per Share, Graham Number, Median Ratio etc, discounted Cash Flow model evaluates the companies based on their future earnings power instead of their assets.


Be Aware

What you need to know about Discounted Earnings model:

1. The Discounted Earnings model evaluates a company based on its future earnings power
2. Growth is taken into account; therefore a faster growth company is worth more if everything else is the same.
3. Since we are projecting future growth, it is assumed that the company will grow at the same rate as it did during the past 10 years. Therefore this model works better for the companies that are relatively consistent performers.
4. The Discounted Earnings model works poorly for inconsistent performers like cyclicals.
5. Your expected return from the investment is a reasonable discount rate assumption.
6. A larger margin of safety should be required for companies with less predictable businesses.

You can screen for stocks that trade below their Intrinsic Value: DCF (FCF Based) and Intrinsic Value: DCF (Earnings Based) with the GuruFocus All-in-One Screener. Companies with a high Predictability Rank that trade at a discount to their Intrinsic Value: DCF (FCF Based) and Intrinsic Value: DCF (Earnings Based) can be found in the screen of Undervalued Predictable Companies.


General Mills Intrinsic Value: DCF (Earnings Based) Related Terms

Thank you for viewing the detailed overview of General Mills's Intrinsic Value: DCF (Earnings Based) provided by GuruFocus.com. Please click on the following links to see related term pages.


General Mills (NYSE:GIS) Business Description

General Mills logo
Traded in Other Exchanges
Address
Number One General Mills Boulevard, Minneapolis, MN, USA, 55426
General Mills is a leading global packaged food company that produces snacks, cereal, convenient meals, yogurt, dough, baking mixes and ingredients, pet food, and superpremium ice cream. Its largest brands are Nature Valley, Cheerios, Old El Paso, Yoplait, Pillsbury, Betty Crocker, BLUE, and Haagen-Dazs. In fiscal 2022, 77% of its revenue was derived from the United States, although the company also operates in Canada, Europe, Australia, Asia, and Latin America. While most of General Mills' products are sold through retail stores to consumers, the company also sells products into the food-service channel and the commercial baking industry.
Executives
C Kim Goodwin director C/O AKAMAI TECHNOLOGIES, INC., 8 CAMBRIDGE CENTER, CAMBRIDGE MA 02142
Karen Wilson Thissen officer: General Counsel & Secretary 1098 AMERIPRISE FINANCIAL CENTER, MINNEAPOLIS MN 55474
Paul Joseph Gallagher officer: Chief Supply Chain Officer 1 GENERAL MILLS BLVD, MINNEAPOLIS MN 55426
Jaime Montemayor officer: Chief Technology Officer NUMBER ONE GENERAL MILLS BLVD, MINNEAPOLIS MN 55426
Mark A Pallot officer: Chief Accounting Officer NUMBER ONE GENERAL MILLS BLVD, MINNEAPOLIS MN 55426
Jo Ann Jenkins director 2211 SOUTH 47TH STREET, PHOENIX AZ 85034
Dana M Mcnabb officer: Group President NUMBER ONE GENERAL MILLS BLVD, MINNEAPOLIS MN 55426
Elizabeth Cahill Lempres director TWO COMMERCE SQUARE, 2001 MARKET STREET, SUITE 3600, PHILADELPHIA PA 19103
Sean N Walker officer: Group President NUMBER ONE GENERAL MILLS BLVD, MINNEAPOLIS MN 55426
Diane L Neal director
Jodi J Benson officer: Chief Innovation Officer GENERAL MILLS, INC., ONE GENERAL MILLS BLVD, MINNEAPOLIS MN 55426
Maria Sastre director C/O DARDEN RESTAURANTS, INC., 1000 DARDEN CENTER DRIVE, ORLANDO FL 32837
Bishop William W Jr officer: Group President C/O BLUE BUFFALO PET PRODUCTS, INC., 11 RIVER ROAD, WILTON CT 06897
Kofi A Bruce officer: Vice President GENERAL MILLS, INC., ONE GENERAL MILLS BLVD., MINNEAPOLIS MN 55426
Ivan Pollard officer: Senior Vice President GENERAL MILLS, INC., ONE GENERAL MILLS BLVD., MINNEAPOLIS MN 55426

General Mills (NYSE:GIS) Headlines