Market Cap : 177.43 B | Enterprise Value : 187.82 B | PE Ratio : 16.40 | PB Ratio : 10.91 |
---|
NYSE:UPS has been successfully added to your Stock Email Alerts list.
You can manage your stock email alerts here.
NYSE:UPS has been removed from your Stock Email Alerts list.
Please enter Portfolio Name for new portfolio.
As of today (2022-08-11), United Parcel Service's intrinsic value calculated from the Discounted Earnings model is $238.91.
Note: Discounted Earnings model is only suitable for predictable companies (Business Predictability Rank higher than 1-Star). If the company's predictability rank is 1-Star or Not Rated, result may not be accurate due to the low predictability of business and the data will not be stored into our database.
United Parcel Service's Predictability Rank is 3-Stars.
Margin of Safety (Earnings Based) using Discounted Earnings model for United Parcel Service is 14.10%.
The historical rank and industry rank for United Parcel Service's Intrinsic Value: DCF (Earnings Based) or its related term are showing as below:
During the past 13 years, the highest Price-to-Intrinsic-Value-DCF (Earnings Based) Ratio of United Parcel Service was 1.47. The lowest was 0.56. And the median was 1.08.
UPS's Price-to-DCF (Earnings Based) is ranked worse thanThe historical data trend for United Parcel Service's Intrinsic Value: DCF (Earnings Based) can be seen below:
* For Operating Data section: All numbers are indicated by the unit behind each term and all currency related amount are in USD.
* For other sections: All numbers are in millions except for per share data, ratio, and percentage. All currency related amount are indicated in the company's associated stock exchange currency.
This is the intrinsic value calculated from the Discounted Earnings model with default parameters. The calculation method is the same as Discounted Cash Flow model except earnings are used in the calculation instead of free cash flow. This is the default method of calculation with GuruFocus DCF calculator.
Usually a two-stage model is used in calculating the intrinsic value with discounted cash flow model. The first stage is called growth stage; the second is called the terminal stage. In the growth stage the company grows at a faster rate. Because it cannot grow at that rate forever, a lower rate is used for the terminal stage.
GuruFocus DCF calculator is a two-stage model. The default values are defined as:
1. Discount Rate: d = 9%
A reasonable discount rate assumption should be at least the long term average return of the stock market, which can be estimated from risk free rate plus risk premium of stock market. We used the 10-Year Treasury Constant Maturity Rate as the risk free rate and rounded up to the nearest integer, then added a risk premium of 6% to get the estimated discount rate. Some investors use their expected rate of return, which is also reasonable. A typical discount rate can be anywhere between 6% - 20%.
2. Growth Rate in the growth stage: g1 = 10.10%
Growth Rate in the growth stage = average earnings growth rate in the past 10 years. If it is higher than 20%, we use 20%. If it is less than 5%, we use 5% instead. =>
Average Earnings Growth Rate in the past 10 years was 10.10% which is less than 20% and higher than 5% => Growth Rate: 10.10%
3. Years of Growth Stage: y1 = 10
4. Terminal Growth Rate: g2 = 4%
5. Years of Terminal Growth: y2 = 10
6. EPS without NRI: eps without nri = $12.450.
GuruFocus DCF calculator is actually a Discounted Earnings calculator, the Earnings Per Share without NRI is used as the default. The reason we are doing this is we found that historically stock prices are more correlated with earnings than free cash flow.
All of the default settings can be changed and the results are calculated automatically.
United Parcel Service's Intrinsic Value: DCF (Earnings Based) for today is calculated as:
Intrinsic Value: DCF (Earnings Based) | = | Earnings per Share (Diluted) | * | {[(1+g1)/(1+d) | + | (1+g1)^2/(1+d)^2 | + | ... | + | (1+g1)^10/(1+d)^10] |
+ | (1+g1)^10/(1+d)^10 | * | [(1+g2)/(1+d) | + | (1+g2)^2/(1+d)^2 | + | ... | + | (1+g2)^10/(1+d)^10]} |
set x = (1+g1)/(1+d) = (1+0.101)/(1+0.09) = 1.0100917431193
and y = (1+g2)/(1+d) = (1+0.04)/(1+0.09) = 0.95412844036697
Intrinsic Value: DCF (Earnings Based) | = | Earnings per Share (Diluted) | * | {[x | + | x^2 | + | ... | + | x^10] | + | x^10 | * | [y | + | y^2 | + | ... | + | y^10]} |
= | Earnings per Share (Diluted) | * | [x | * | (1-x^10) | / | (1-x) | + | x^10 | * | y | * | (1-y^10) | / | (1-y)] | |||||
= | 12.450 | * | 19.1898 | |||||||||||||||||
= | 238.91 |
Margin of Safety % (DCF Earnings Based) | = | (Intrinsic Value: DCF (Earnings Based) | - | Current Price) | / | Intrinsic Value: DCF (Earnings Based) |
= | (238.91 | - | 205.23) | / | 238.91 | |
= | 14.10 % |
* For Operating Data section: All numbers are indicated by the unit behind each term and all currency related amount are in USD.
* For other sections: All numbers are in millions except for per share data, ratio, and percentage. All currency related amount are indicated in the company's associated stock exchange currency.
Unlike valuation methods such as Net Current Asset Value, Tangible Book Value per Share, Graham Number, Median Ratio etc, discounted Cash Flow model evaluates the companies based on their future earnings power instead of their assets.
What you need to know about Discounted Earnings model:
1. The Discounted Earnings model evaluates a company based on its future earnings powerYou can screen for stocks that trade below their Intrinsic Value: DCF (FCF Based) and Intrinsic Value: DCF (Earnings Based) with the GuruFocus All-in-One Screener. Companies with a high Predictability Rank that trade at a discount to their Intrinsic Value: DCF (FCF Based) and Intrinsic Value: DCF (Earnings Based) can be found in the screen of Undervalued Predictable Companies.
Thank you for viewing the detailed overview of United Parcel Service's Intrinsic Value: DCF (Earnings Based) provided by GuruFocus.com. Please click on the following links to see related term pages.
Ford Darrell L | officer: Chief Human Resources Officer | 55 GLENLAKE PARKWAY, NE ATLANTA GA 30328 |
Johnson Kathleen E | director | 55 GLENLAKE PARKWAY, NE ATLANTA GA 30328 |
Stokes Russell | director | 5 NECCO STREET BOSTON MA 02210 |
Hewett Wayne M. | director | 5 WESTBROOK CORPORATE CENTER WESTCHESTER IL 60154 |
Boratto Eva C | director | 55 GLENLAKE PARKWAY, NE ATLANTA GA 30328 |
Lane Laura J | officer: Chief Corp Affairs & Comms Off | 55 GLENLAKE PARKWAY, NE ATLANTA GA 30328 |
Hwang Angela | director | 235 EAST 42ND STREET ATTN: CORPORATE SECRETARY NEW YORK NY 10017 |
Newman Brian | officer: Chief Financial Officer | 55 GLENLAKE PARKWAY, NE ATLANTA GA 30328 |
Thomas Charlene A | officer: Chief Human Resources Officer | 55 GLENLAKE PARKWAY, NE ATLANTA GA 30328 |
Tome Carol B | director | 55 GLENLAKE PARKWAY, NE ATLANTA GA 30328 |
Markham Rudy | director | 55 GLENLAKE PARKWAY NE ATLANTA GA 30328 |
Burns Michael J | director | POSTFACH STEIZENSTRASSE 4 CH-8152 GLATTBRUGG ZURICH SWITZERLAND V8 00000 |
Stankey John T | director | 208 S. AKARD ST. DALLAS TX 75202 |
Johnson William R | director | UNITED PARCEL SERVICE, INC. 55 GLENLAKE PARKWAY, NE ATLANTA GA 30328 |
Moison Franck J | director | C/O COLGATE PALMOLIVE CO 300 PARK AVE 15TH FL NEW YORK NY 10022 |
Other Sources
By Zacks 2022-03-10
By Zacks 2022-04-05
By Zacks 2022-03-09
By tipranks.com 2022-04-04
By Zacks 2022-03-03
By Zacks 2022-03-04
By Zacks 2022-04-01
By Zacks 2022-03-24
By Zacks 2022-03-29
By Zacks 2022-03-04
By tipranks.com 2022-04-05
By tipranks.com 2022-03-29
By Zacks 2022-03-03