GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » USA » NAS » Cheesecake Factory Inc (NAS:CAKE) » Definitions » Intrinsic Value: DCF (FCF Based)
Switch to:

Cheesecake Factory (NAS:CAKE) Intrinsic Value: DCF (FCF Based)

: $17.72 (As of Today)
View and export this data going back to 1983. Start your Free Trial

As of today (2023-05-29), Cheesecake Factory's intrinsic value calculated from the Discounted Cash Flow model is $17.72.

Note: Discounted Cash Flow model is only suitable for predictable companies (Business Predictability Rank higher than 1-Star). If the company's predictability rank is 1-Star or Not Rated, result may not be accurate due to the low predictability of business and the data will not be stored into our database.

Cheesecake Factory's Predictability Rank is 1-Star. Thus, this page is only used for demonstration purposes and the DCF related results in the screener and portfolio will appear as zero.

Margin of Safety (FCF Based) using Discounted Cash Flow model for Cheesecake Factory is -84.09%.

The industry rank for Cheesecake Factory's Intrinsic Value: DCF (FCF Based) or its related term are showing as below:

CAKE's Price-to-DCF (FCF Based) is not ranked *
in the Restaurants industry.
Industry Median: 1.21
* Ranked among companies with meaningful Price-to-DCF (FCF Based) only.

Cheesecake Factory Intrinsic Value: DCF (FCF Based) Historical Data

The historical data trend for Cheesecake Factory's Intrinsic Value: DCF (FCF Based) can be seen below:

* For Operating Data section: All numbers are indicated by the unit behind each term and all currency related amount are in USD.
* For other sections: All numbers are in millions except for per share data, ratio, and percentage. All currency related amount are indicated in the company's associated stock exchange currency.

* Premium members only.

Cheesecake Factory Annual Data
Trend Dec13 Dec14 Dec15 Dec16 Dec17 Dec18 Dec19 Dec20 Dec21 Dec22
Intrinsic Value: DCF (FCF Based)
Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only 61.57 48.40 - - -

Cheesecake Factory Quarterly Data
Jun18 Sep18 Dec18 Mar19 Jun19 Sep19 Dec19 Mar20 Jun20 Sep20 Dec20 Mar21 Jun21 Sep21 Dec21 Mar22 Jun22 Sep22 Dec22 Mar23
Intrinsic Value: DCF (FCF Based) Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only - - - - -

Cheesecake Factory Intrinsic Value: DCF (FCF Based) Calculation

This is the intrinsic value calculated from the Discounted Cash Flow model with default parameters. In a discounted cash flow model, the future cash flow is estimated based on a cash flow growth rate and a discount rate. The cash flow of the future is discounted to its current value at the discount rate. All of the discounted future cash flow is added together to get the current intrinsic value of the company.

Usually a two-stage model is used when calculating a stock's intrinsic value using a discounted cash flow model. The first stage is called the growth stage; the second is called the terminal stage. In the growth stage the company grows at a faster rate. Because it cannot grow at that rate forever, a lower rate is used for the terminal stage.

GuruFocus DCF calculator is a two-stage model. The default values are defined as:

1. Discount Rate: d = 10%
A reasonable discount rate assumption should be at least the long term average return of the stock market, which can be estimated from risk free rate plus risk premium of stock market. We used the 10-Year Treasury Constant Maturity Rate as the risk free rate and rounded up to the nearest integer, then added a risk premium of 6% to get the estimated discount rate. Some investors use their expected rate of return, which is also reasonable. A typical discount rate can be anywhere between 6% - 20%.

2. Growth Rate in the growth stage: g1 = 5%
Growth Rate in the growth stage = average free cash flow growth rate in the past 10 years. If it is higher than 20%, we use 20%. If it is less than 5%, we use 5% instead. => For companies with Average Free Cash Flow Growth Rate in the past 10 years less than 5%, GuruFocus defaults => Growth Rate: 5%

3. Years of Growth Stage: y1 = 10

4. Terminal Growth Rate: g2 = 4%

5. Years of Terminal Growth: y2 = 10

6. Free Cash Flow per Share: fcf = $1.419.
However, GuruFocus DCF calculator is actually a Discounted Earnings calculator, the EPS without NRI is used as the default. The reason we are doing this is we found that historically stock prices are more correlated with earnings than free cash flow.

All of the default settings can be changed and the results are calculated automatically.

Cheesecake Factory's Intrinsic Value: DCF (FCF Based) for today is calculated as

Intrinsic Value: DCF (FCF Based)=Free Cash Flow per Share*{[(1+g1)/(1+d)+(1+g1)^2/(1+d)^2+...+(1+g1)^10/(1+d)^10]
+(1+g1)^10/(1+d)^10*[(1+g2)/(1+d)+(1+g2)^2/(1+d)^2+...+(1+g2)^10/(1+d)^10]}

set x = (1+g1)/(1+d) = (1+0.05)/(1+0.1) = 0.95454545454545
and y = (1+g2)/(1+d) = (1+0.04)/(1+0.1) = 0.94545454545455

Intrinsic Value: DCF (FCF Based)=Free Cash Flow per Share*{[x+x^2+...+x^10]+x^10*[y+y^2+...+y^10]}
=Free Cash Flow per Share*[x*(1-x^10)/(1-x)+x^10*y*(1-y^10)/(1-y)]
=1.419*12.485
=17.72

Margin of Safety (FCF Based)=(Intrinsic Value: DCF (FCF Based)-Current Price)/Intrinsic Value: DCF (FCF Based)
=(17.72-32.62)/17.72
=-84.09 %

* For Operating Data section: All numbers are indicated by the unit behind each term and all currency related amount are in USD.
* For other sections: All numbers are in millions except for per share data, ratio, and percentage. All currency related amount are indicated in the company's associated stock exchange currency.


Cheesecake Factory  (NAS:CAKE) Intrinsic Value: DCF (FCF Based) Explanation

Unlike valuation methods such as Net Current Asset Value, Tangible Book per Share, Graham Number, Median PS Value etc, discounted Cash Flow model evaluates the companies based on their future earnings power instead of their assets.


Be Aware

What you need to know about the DCF model:

1. The DCF model evaluates a company based on its future earnings power
2. Growth is taken into account; therefore a faster growth company is worth more if everything else is the same.
3. Since we are projecting future growth, it is assumed that the company will grow at the same rate as it did during the past 10 years. Therefore this model works better for the companies that have relatively consistent performance.
4. The DCF model works poorly for inconsistent performers such as cyclicals.
5. What discount rate should you use? Your expected return from the investment is a good discount rate assumption.
6. A larger margin of safety should be required for companies with less predictable businesses.

You can screen for stocks that trade below their Intrinsic Value: DCF (FCF Based) and Intrinsic Value: DCF (Earnings Based) with the GuruFocus All-in-One Screener. Companies with a high Predictability Rank that trade at a discount to their Intrinsic Value: DCF (FCF Based) and Intrinsic Value: DCF (Earnings Based) can be found in the screen of Undervalued Predictable Companies.


Cheesecake Factory Intrinsic Value: DCF (FCF Based) Related Terms

Thank you for viewing the detailed overview of Cheesecake Factory's Intrinsic Value: DCF (FCF Based) provided by GuruFocus.com. Please click on the following links to see related term pages.


Cheesecake Factory (NAS:CAKE) Business Description

Cheesecake Factory logo
Traded in Other Exchanges
Address
26901 Malibu Hills Road, Calabasas Hills, CA, USA, 91301
Cheesecake Factory owns and operates restaurants in the United States and Canada under brands that include The Cheesecake Factory, North Italia, and a collection within the Fox Restaurants Concepts subsidiary. The company's international presence, in the Middle East and Mexico, is through licensing agreements with third parties. The company also has a bakery division that produces cheesecakes and other baked products for sale in its restaurants, international licensees, and third-party bakery customers. The company has four operating business segments: The Cheesecake Factory restaurants, North Italia, other FRC, and Flower Child. Most of the company's revenue comes from The Cheesecake Factory restaurants segment.
Executives
Adam S. Gordon director 26901 MALIBU HILLS ROAD, CALABASAS CA 91301
Khanh Collins director 22825 QUEENSBRIDGE DRIVE, ASHBURN VA 20148
Paul D. Ginsberg director C/O ROARK CAPITAL, 1180 PEACHTREE STREET NE, SUITE 2500, ATLANTA GA 30309
Rc Cake Holdings Llc 10 percent owner 1180 PEACHTREE STREET NE, SUITE 2500, ATLANTA GA 30309
Janice L. Meyer director 26901 MALIBU HILLS ROAD, CALABASAS CA 91301
Scarlett May officer: EVP, General Counsel 26901 MALIBU HILLS ROAD, CALABASAS HILLS CA 91301
Keith Carango officer: President (Subsidiary) 26901 MALIBU HILLS ROAD, CALABASAS HILLS CA 91301
Edie A Ames director C/O MORTONS RESTATURANT GROUP, INC., 325 LASALLE STREET, SUITE 500, CHICAGO IL 60610
Doug Benn officer: Executive VP, CFO C/O INNOVATIVE RESTAURANTS CONCEPT INC, 1640 POWERS FERRY RD BLDG 2 STE 300, MARIETTA GA 30067-9400
David M Gordon officer: President C/O THE CHEESECAKE FACTORY INCORPORATED, 26901 MALIBU HILLS DRIVE, CALABASAS HILLS CA 91301
Douglas L Schmick director 720 SW WASHINGTON STREET, SUITE 550, PORTLAND OR 97205
Laurence B Mindel director IL FORNAIO AMERICA CORP, 770 TAMAPAIS DR STE 400, CORTE MADERA CA 94925
Herbert Simon director 115 W WASHINGTON ST, INDIANAPOLIS IN 46204
Michael E Jannini officer: President C/O 26901 MALIBU HILLS DRIVE, CALABASAS HILLS CA 91301
David Bruce Pittaway director 150 E 58TH ST, STE 3700, NEW YORK NY 10155

Cheesecake Factory (NAS:CAKE) Headlines

Other Sources