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Coty (NYSE:COTY) Intrinsic Value: DCF (FCF Based)

: $5.19 (As of Today)
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As of today (2023-10-02), Coty's intrinsic value calculated from the Discounted Cash Flow model is $5.19.

Note: Discounted Cash Flow model is only suitable for predictable companies (Business Predictability Rank higher than 1-Star). If the company's predictability rank is 1-Star or Not Rated, result may not be accurate due to the low predictability of business and the data will not be stored into our database.

Coty's Predictability Rank is 1-Star. Thus, this page is only used for demonstration purposes and the DCF related results in the screener and portfolio will appear as zero.

Margin of Safety (FCF Based) using Discounted Cash Flow model for Coty is -106.94%.

The industry rank for Coty's Intrinsic Value: DCF (FCF Based) or its related term are showing as below:

COTY's Price-to-DCF (FCF Based) is not ranked *
in the Consumer Packaged Goods industry.
Industry Median: 1.45
* Ranked among companies with meaningful Price-to-DCF (FCF Based) only.

Coty Intrinsic Value: DCF (FCF Based) Historical Data

The historical data trend for Coty's Intrinsic Value: DCF (FCF Based) can be seen below:

* For Operating Data section: All numbers are indicated by the unit behind each term and all currency related amount are in USD.
* For other sections: All numbers are in millions except for per share data, ratio, and percentage. All currency related amount are indicated in the company's associated stock exchange currency.

* Premium members only.

Coty Annual Data
Trend Jun14 Jun15 Jun16 Jun17 Jun18 Jun19 Jun20 Jun21 Jun22 Jun23
Intrinsic Value: DCF (FCF Based)
Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only - - - - -

Coty Quarterly Data
Sep18 Dec18 Mar19 Jun19 Sep19 Dec19 Mar20 Jun20 Sep20 Dec20 Mar21 Jun21 Sep21 Dec21 Mar22 Jun22 Sep22 Dec22 Mar23 Jun23
Intrinsic Value: DCF (FCF Based) Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only - - - - -

Coty Intrinsic Value: DCF (FCF Based) Calculation

This is the intrinsic value calculated from the Discounted Cash Flow model with default parameters. In a discounted cash flow model, the future cash flow is estimated based on a cash flow growth rate and a discount rate. The cash flow of the future is discounted to its current value at the discount rate. All of the discounted future cash flow is added together to get the current intrinsic value of the company.

Usually a two-stage model is used when calculating a stock's intrinsic value using a discounted cash flow model. The first stage is called the growth stage; the second is called the terminal stage. In the growth stage the company grows at a faster rate. Because it cannot grow at that rate forever, a lower rate is used for the terminal stage.

GuruFocus DCF calculator is a two-stage model. The default values are defined as:

1. Discount Rate: d = 11%
A reasonable discount rate assumption should be at least the long term average return of the stock market, which can be estimated from risk free rate plus risk premium of stock market. We used the 10-Year Treasury Constant Maturity Rate as the risk free rate and rounded up to the nearest integer, then added a risk premium of 6% to get the estimated discount rate. Some investors use their expected rate of return, which is also reasonable. A typical discount rate can be anywhere between 6% - 20%.

2. Growth Rate in the growth stage: g1 = 5%
The Growth Rate in the growth stage is initially set as the default 10-Year FCF Growth Rate (Per Share). In cases where the 10-year growth rate is unavailable, it defaults to using the 5-Year FCF Growth Rate (Per Share). If both the 10-year and 5-year growth rates are unavailable, the system defaults to the 3-Year FCF Growth Rate (Per Share).
However, it's important to note that there is a growth rate range. If the calculated growth rate exceeds 20%, it will be capped at 20%. Conversely, if the calculated growth rate falls below 5%, it will be adjusted to 5% to maintain a reasonable range.
=> Coty's average Free Cash Flow Growth Rate in the past 3 years was 0.00%, which is less than 5%. GuruFocus defaults => Growth Rate: 5%

3. Years of Growth Stage: y1 = 10

4. Terminal Growth Rate: g2 = 4%

5. Years of Terminal Growth: y2 = 10

6. Free Cash Flow per Share: fcf = $0.450.
However, GuruFocus DCF calculator is actually a Discounted Earnings calculator, the EPS without NRI is used as the default. The reason we are doing this is we found that historically stock prices are more correlated with earnings than free cash flow.

All of the default settings can be changed and the results are calculated automatically.

Coty's Intrinsic Value: DCF (FCF Based) for today is calculated as

Intrinsic Value: DCF (FCF Based)=Free Cash Flow per Share*{[(1+g1)/(1+d)+(1+g1)^2/(1+d)^2+...+(1+g1)^10/(1+d)^10]
+(1+g1)^10/(1+d)^10*[(1+g2)/(1+d)+(1+g2)^2/(1+d)^2+...+(1+g2)^10/(1+d)^10]}

set x = (1+g1)/(1+d) = (1+0.05)/(1+0.11) = 0.94594594594595
and y = (1+g2)/(1+d) = (1+0.04)/(1+0.11) = 0.93693693693694

Intrinsic Value: DCF (FCF Based)=Free Cash Flow per Share*{[x+x^2+...+x^10]+x^10*[y+y^2+...+y^10]}
=Free Cash Flow per Share*[x*(1-x^10)/(1-x)+x^10*y*(1-y^10)/(1-y)]
=0.450*11.5406
=5.19

Margin of Safety (FCF Based)=(Intrinsic Value: DCF (FCF Based)-Current Price)/Intrinsic Value: DCF (FCF Based)
=(5.19-10.74)/5.19
=-106.94 %

* For Operating Data section: All numbers are indicated by the unit behind each term and all currency related amount are in USD.
* For other sections: All numbers are in millions except for per share data, ratio, and percentage. All currency related amount are indicated in the company's associated stock exchange currency.


Coty  (NYSE:COTY) Intrinsic Value: DCF (FCF Based) Explanation

Unlike valuation methods such as Net Current Asset Value, Tangible Book per Share, Graham Number, Median PS Value etc, discounted Cash Flow model evaluates the companies based on their future earnings power instead of their assets.


Be Aware

What you need to know about the DCF model:

1. The DCF model evaluates a company based on its future earnings power
2. Growth is taken into account; therefore a faster growth company is worth more if everything else is the same.
3. Since we are projecting future growth, it is assumed that the company will grow at the same rate as it did during the past 10 years. Therefore this model works better for the companies that have relatively consistent performance.
4. The DCF model works poorly for inconsistent performers such as cyclicals.
5. What discount rate should you use? Your expected return from the investment is a good discount rate assumption.
6. A larger margin of safety should be required for companies with less predictable businesses.

You can screen for stocks that trade below their Intrinsic Value: DCF (FCF Based) and Intrinsic Value: DCF (Earnings Based) with the GuruFocus All-in-One Screener. Companies with a high Predictability Rank that trade at a discount to their Intrinsic Value: DCF (FCF Based) and Intrinsic Value: DCF (Earnings Based) can be found in the screen of Undervalued Predictable Companies.


Coty Intrinsic Value: DCF (FCF Based) Related Terms

Thank you for viewing the detailed overview of Coty's Intrinsic Value: DCF (FCF Based) provided by GuruFocus.com. Please click on the following links to see related term pages.


Coty (NYSE:COTY) Business Description

Coty logo
Traded in Other Exchanges
Address
350 Fifth Avenue, New York, NY, USA, 10118
Coty Inc is a global beauty firm that sells fragrance, color cosmetics, and skin and body care. It licenses brands such as Calvin Klein, Hugo Boss, Gucci, Burberry, and Davidoff for its prestige portfolio. Coty's most popular color cosmetic brands are CoverGirl, Max Factor, Rimmel, Sally Hansen, and Kylie. Coty also holds a minority stake in a salon and retail haircare business, including brands Wella, Clairol, OPI, and GHD. The company has two reportable segments such as Prestige and Consumer Beauty. It generates majority of its revenue from Prestige segment.
Executives
Priya Srinivasan officer: Chief People & Purpose Officer 350 FIFTH AVENUE, NEW YORK NY 10118
Rochet Lubomira director 6425 HALL OF FAME LANE, FRISCO TX 75034
Laurent Mercier officer: Chief Financial Officer 350 FIFTH AVENUE, NEW YORK NY 10118
Anna Adeola Makanju director 350 FIFTH AVENUE, NEW YORK NY 10118
Maria Asunicion Aramburuzabala director PASEO DE LOS TAMARINDOS 400, TORRE B PISO 25, MEXICO DF O5 0000
Johannes P Huth director
Sue Nabi director, officer: Chief Executive Officer 350 FIFTH AVENUE, NEW YORK NY 10118
Bayern Anna Von officer: Chief Corp. Affairs Officer 350 FIFTH AVENUE, NEW YORK NY 10118
Nancy G. Ford director C/O KOHLBERG KRAVIS ROBERTS & CO. L.P., 9 WEST 57TH STREET, SUITE 4200, NEW YORK NY 10019
George R Roberts 10 percent owner C/O KOHLBERG KRAVIS ROBERTS & CO. L.P., 2800 SAND HILL ROAD, MENLO PARK CA 94025
Kkr Rainbow Aggregator L.p. 10 percent owner C/O KOHLBERG KRAVIS ROBERTS & CO. L.P., 9 WEST 57TH STREET, SUITE 4200, NEW YORK NY 10019
Kkr Rainbow Aggregator Gp Llc 10 percent owner C/O KOHLBERG KRAVIS ROBERTS & CO. L.P., 9 WEST 57TH STREET, SUITE 4200, NEW YORK NY 10019
Kkr Europe V S.a R.l. 10 percent owner C/O KOHLBERG KRAVIS ROBERTS & CO. L.P., 9 WEST 57TH STREET, SUITE 4200, NEW YORK NY 10019
Kkr Associates Europe V Scsp 10 percent owner C/O KOHLBERG KRAVIS ROBERTS & CO. L.P., 9 WEST 57TH STREET, SUITE 4200, NEW YORK NY 10019
Kkr Europe V Holdings Ltd 10 percent owner C/O KOHLBERG KRAVIS ROBERTS & CO. L.P., 9 WEST 57TH STREET, SUITE 4200, NEW YORK NY 10019