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MercadoLibre Intrinsic Value: DCF (FCF Based)

: $-16.43 (As of Today)
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As of today (2021-11-28), MercadoLibre's intrinsic value calculated from the Discounted Cash Flow model is $-16.43.

Note: Discounted Cash Flow model is only suitable for predictable companies (Business Predictability Rank higher than 1-Star). If the company's predictability rank is 1-Star or Not Rated, result may not be accurate due to the low predictability of business and the data will not be stored into our database.

MercadoLibre's Predictability Rank is 1-Star. Thus, this page is only used for demonstration purposes and the DCF related results in the screener and portfolio will appear as zero.

Margin of Safety (FCF Based) using Discounted Cash Flow model for MercadoLibre is N/A.


MercadoLibre Intrinsic Value: DCF (FCF Based) Historical Data

The historical data trend for MercadoLibre's Intrinsic Value: DCF (FCF Based) can be seen below:

* For Operating Data section: All numbers are indicated by the unit behind each term and all currency related amount are in USD.
* For other sections: All numbers are in millions except for per share data, ratio, and percentage. All currency related amount are indicated in the company's associated stock exchange currency.

* Premium members only.

MercadoLibre Annual Data
Trend Dec11 Dec12 Dec13 Dec14 Dec15 Dec16 Dec17 Dec18 Dec19 Dec20
Intrinsic Value: DCF (FCF Based)
Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only 97.15 - - - -

MercadoLibre Quarterly Data
Dec16 Mar17 Jun17 Sep17 Dec17 Mar18 Jun18 Sep18 Dec18 Mar19 Jun19 Sep19 Dec19 Mar20 Jun20 Sep20 Dec20 Mar21 Jun21 Sep21
Intrinsic Value: DCF (FCF Based) Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only - - - - -

MercadoLibre Intrinsic Value: DCF (FCF Based) Calculation

This is the intrinsic value calculated from the Discounted Cash Flow model with default parameters. In a discounted cash flow model, the future cash flow is estimated based on a cash flow growth rate and a discount rate. The cash flow of the future is discounted to its current value at the discount rate. All of the discounted future cash flow is added together to get the current intrinsic value of the company.

Usually a two-stage model is used when calculating a stock's intrinsic value using a discounted cash flow model. The first stage is called the growth stage; the second is called the terminal stage. In the growth stage the company grows at a faster rate. Because it cannot grow at that rate forever, a lower rate is used for the terminal stage.

GuruFocus DCF calculator is a two-stage model. The default values are defined as:

1. Discount Rate: d = 8%
A reasonable discount rate assumption should be at least the long term average return of the stock market, which can be estimated from risk free rate plus risk premium of stock market. We used the 10-Year Treasury Constant Maturity Rate as the risk free rate and rounded up to the nearest integer, then added a risk premium of 6% to get the estimated discount rate. Some investors use their expected rate of return, which is also reasonable. A typical discount rate can be anywhere between 6% - 20%.

2. Growth Rate in the growth stage: g1 = 20%
Growth Rate in the growth stage = average free cash flow growth rate in the past 10 years. If it is higher than 20%, we use 20%. If it is less than 5%, we use 5% instead. => Average Free Cash Flow Growth Rate in the past 10 years was 20% which is NO less than 20% => Growth Rate: 20%

3. Years of Growth Stage: y1 = 10

4. Terminal Growth Rate: g2 = 4%

5. Years of Terminal Growth: y2 = 10

6. Free Cash Flow per Share: fcf = $-0.39.
However, GuruFocus DCF calculator is actually a Discounted Earnings calculator, the EPS without NRI is used as the default. The reason we are doing this is we found that historically stock prices are more correlated with earnings than free cash flow.

All of the default settings can be changed and the results are calculated automatically.

MercadoLibre's Intrinsic Value: DCF (FCF Based) for today is calculated as

Intrinsic Value: DCF (FCF Based)=Free Cash Flow per Share*{[(1+g1)/(1+d)+(1+g1)^2/(1+d)^2+...+(1+g1)^10/(1+d)^10]
+(1+g1)^10/(1+d)^10*[(1+g2)/(1+d)+(1+g2)^2/(1+d)^2+...+(1+g2)^10/(1+d)^10]}

set x = (1+g1)/(1+d) = (1+0.2)/(1+0.08) = 1.1111111111111
and y = (1+g2)/(1+d) = (1+0.04)/(1+0.08) = 0.96296296296296

Intrinsic Value: DCF (FCF Based)=Free Cash Flow per Share*{[x+x^2+...+x^10]+x^10*[y+y^2+...+y^10]}
=Free Cash Flow per Share*[x*(1-x^10)/(1-x)+x^10*y*(1-y^10)/(1-y)]
=-0.39*42.1207
=-16.43

Margin of Safety (FCF Based)=(Intrinsic Value: DCF (FCF Based)-Current Price)/Intrinsic Value: DCF (FCF Based)
=(-16.43-1258.71)/-16.43
=N/A

* For Operating Data section: All numbers are indicated by the unit behind each term and all currency related amount are in USD.
* For other sections: All numbers are in millions except for per share data, ratio, and percentage. All currency related amount are indicated in the company's associated stock exchange currency.


MercadoLibre  (NAS:MELI) Intrinsic Value: DCF (FCF Based) Explanation

Unlike valuation methods such as Net Current Asset Value, Tangible Book per Share, Graham Number, Median PS Value etc, discounted Cash Flow model evaluates the companies based on their future earnings power instead of their assets.


Be Aware

What you need to know about the DCF model:

1. The DCF model evaluates a company based on its future earnings power
2. Growth is taken into account; therefore a faster growth company is worth more if everything else is the same.
3. Since we are projecting future growth, it is assumed that the company will grow at the same rate as it did during the past 10 years. Therefore this model works better for the companies that have relatively consistent performance.
4. The DCF model works poorly for inconsistent performers such as cyclicals.
5. What discount rate should you use? Your expected return from the investment is a good discount rate assumption.
6. A larger margin of safety should be required for companies with less predictable businesses.

You can screen for stocks that trade below their Intrinsic Value: DCF (FCF Based) and Intrinsic Value: DCF (Earnings Based) with the GuruFocus All-in-One Screener. Companies with a high Predictability Rank that trade at a discount to their Intrinsic Value: DCF (FCF Based) and Intrinsic Value: DCF (Earnings Based) can be found in the screen of Undervalued Predictable Companies.


MercadoLibre Intrinsic Value: DCF (FCF Based) Related Terms

Thank you for viewing the detailed overview of MercadoLibre's Intrinsic Value: DCF (FCF Based) provided by GuruFocus.com. Please click on the following links to see related term pages.


MercadoLibre Business Description

MercadoLibre logo
Industry
Consumer Cyclical » Retail - Cyclical NAICS : 454110 SIC : 5961
Address
Pasaje Posta 4789, 6th Floor, Buenos Aires, ARG, C1430EKG
Founded in 1999, MercadoLibre's commerce segment (representing 64% of net revenue in 2020) includes online marketplaces in more than a dozen Latin American countries, display and paid search advertising capabilities (MercadoClics), online store management services (MercadoShops), and third-party logistics solutions (MercadoEnvios). Its fintech segment includes an online/offline payment-processing platform (MercadoPago), mobile wallet platform, credit solutions for buyers/sellers, and asset management offerings (Mercado Fondo). The company derives more than 95% of its revenue from Brazil, Argentina, and Mexico.
Executives
Aguzin Alejandro Nicolas director ARIAS 3751, 7TH FLOOR BUENOS AIRES C1 C1430DNN
Calemzuk Emiliano director C/O MERCADOLIBRE, INC. TRONADOR 4890, 8TH FLOOR BUENOS AIRES C1 C1430DNN
Segal Susan director PUBLIC "-//W3C//DTD HTML 4.0 Transitional//EN"> Ownership Information: SEGAL SUSAN a.header:link {color: #3b4fae; font-weight: bold; text-decoration: underline;} a.header:visited {color: #3b4fae; font-weight: bold; text-decoration: underline;} a.header:hover {color: #191970;}
Vazquez Mario director TRONADOR 4890, 8TH FLOOR BUENOS AIRES C1 430DNN
Malka Meyer director C/O MERCADOLIBRE, INC. ARIAS 3751, 7TH FLOOR BUENOS AIRES C1 C1C1430CRG
Sallouti Roberto Balls director ARIAS 3751, 7TH FLOOR BUENOS AIRES C1 C1 C1430CRG
Galperin Marcos director, officer: President and CEO C/O MERCADOLIBRE, INC. TRONADOR 4890, 8TH FLOOR BUENOS AIRES C1 C1430DNN
Tolda Stelleo officer: Executive VP and COO C/O MERCADOLIBRE, INC. TRONADOR 4890, 8TH FLOOR BUENOS AIRES C1 C1430DNN
Ebay Inc 10 percent owner 2025 HAMILTON AVENUE SAN JOSE CA 95125
Rabinovich Daniel officer: EVP-Chief Technology Officer ARIAS 3751, 7TH FLOOR BUENOS AIRES C1 C1430CRG
Melamud Marcelo officer: VP - Chief Accounting Officer TRONADOR 4890, 8TH FLOOR BUENOS AIRES C1 C1430DNN
Spence A Michael director 121 INNOVATION DR STE 200 IRVINE CA 92612
Arnt Pedro officer: Executive VP and CFO ARIAS 3751, 7TH FLOOR BUENOS AIRES C1 C1430CRG
Osvaldo Gimenez officer: Executive VP - Payments TRONADOR 4890, 8TH FLOOR BUENOS AIRES C1 C1430DNN
Olivan Javier director 62 RIDGE VIEW DRIVE ATHERTON X1 94027

MercadoLibre Headlines

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