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General Mills Intrinsic Value: DCF (FCF Based)

: $63.37 (As of Today)
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As of today (2022-06-26), General Mills's intrinsic value calculated from the Discounted Cash Flow model is $63.37.

Note: Discounted Cash Flow model is only suitable for predictable companies (Business Predictability Rank higher than 1-Star). If the company's predictability rank is 1-Star or Not Rated, result may not be accurate due to the low predictability of business and the data will not be stored into our database.

General Mills's Predictability Rank is 2.5-Stars.

Margin of Safety (FCF Based) using Discounted Cash Flow model for General Mills is -11.46%.

The industry rank for General Mills's Intrinsic Value: DCF (FCF Based) or its related term are showing as below:

GIS's Price-to-Intrinsic-Value-DCF (FCF Based) is ranked better than
61.36% of 176 companies
in the Consumer Packaged Goods industry
Industry Median: 1.49 vs GIS: 1.11

General Mills Intrinsic Value: DCF (FCF Based) Historical Data

The historical data trend for General Mills's Intrinsic Value: DCF (FCF Based) can be seen below:

* For Operating Data section: All numbers are indicated by the unit behind each term and all currency related amount are in USD.
* For other sections: All numbers are in millions except for per share data, ratio, and percentage. All currency related amount are indicated in the company's associated stock exchange currency.

* Premium members only.

General Mills Annual Data
Trend May12 May13 May14 May15 May16 May17 May18 May19 May20 May21
Intrinsic Value: DCF (FCF Based)
Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only 46.35 - - - 74.56

General Mills Quarterly Data
May17 Aug17 Nov17 Feb18 May18 Aug18 Nov18 Feb19 May19 Aug19 Nov19 Feb20 May20 Aug20 Nov20 Feb21 May21 Aug21 Nov21 Feb22
Intrinsic Value: DCF (FCF Based) Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only - 74.56 68.52 77.15 75.63

General Mills Intrinsic Value: DCF (FCF Based) Calculation

This is the intrinsic value calculated from the Discounted Cash Flow model with default parameters. In a discounted cash flow model, the future cash flow is estimated based on a cash flow growth rate and a discount rate. The cash flow of the future is discounted to its current value at the discount rate. All of the discounted future cash flow is added together to get the current intrinsic value of the company.

Usually a two-stage model is used when calculating a stock's intrinsic value using a discounted cash flow model. The first stage is called the growth stage; the second is called the terminal stage. In the growth stage the company grows at a faster rate. Because it cannot grow at that rate forever, a lower rate is used for the terminal stage.

GuruFocus DCF calculator is a two-stage model. The default values are defined as:

1. Discount Rate: d = 10%
A reasonable discount rate assumption should be at least the long term average return of the stock market, which can be estimated from risk free rate plus risk premium of stock market. We used the 10-Year Treasury Constant Maturity Rate as the risk free rate and rounded up to the nearest integer, then added a risk premium of 6% to get the estimated discount rate. Some investors use their expected rate of return, which is also reasonable. A typical discount rate can be anywhere between 6% - 20%.

2. Growth Rate in the growth stage: g1 = 8.50%
Growth Rate in the growth stage = average free cash flow growth rate in the past 10 years. If it is higher than 20%, we use 20%. If it is less than 5%, we use 5% instead. => Average Free Cash Flow Growth Rate in the past 10 years was 8.50% which is less than 20% and higher than 5% => Growth Rate: 8.50%

3. Years of Growth Stage: y1 = 10

4. Terminal Growth Rate: g2 = 4%

5. Years of Terminal Growth: y2 = 10

6. Free Cash Flow per Share: fcf = $4.019.
However, GuruFocus DCF calculator is actually a Discounted Earnings calculator, the EPS without NRI is used as the default. The reason we are doing this is we found that historically stock prices are more correlated with earnings than free cash flow.

All of the default settings can be changed and the results are calculated automatically.

General Mills's Intrinsic Value: DCF (FCF Based) for today is calculated as

Intrinsic Value: DCF (FCF Based)=Free Cash Flow per Share*{[(1+g1)/(1+d)+(1+g1)^2/(1+d)^2+...+(1+g1)^10/(1+d)^10]
+(1+g1)^10/(1+d)^10*[(1+g2)/(1+d)+(1+g2)^2/(1+d)^2+...+(1+g2)^10/(1+d)^10]}

set x = (1+g1)/(1+d) = (1+0.085)/(1+0.1) = 0.98636363636364
and y = (1+g2)/(1+d) = (1+0.04)/(1+0.1) = 0.94545454545455

Intrinsic Value: DCF (FCF Based)=Free Cash Flow per Share*{[x+x^2+...+x^10]+x^10*[y+y^2+...+y^10]}
=Free Cash Flow per Share*[x*(1-x^10)/(1-x)+x^10*y*(1-y^10)/(1-y)]
=4.019*15.7664
=63.37

Margin of Safety (FCF Based)=(Intrinsic Value: DCF (FCF Based)-Current Price)/Intrinsic Value: DCF (FCF Based)
=(63.37-70.63)/63.37
=-11.46 %

* For Operating Data section: All numbers are indicated by the unit behind each term and all currency related amount are in USD.
* For other sections: All numbers are in millions except for per share data, ratio, and percentage. All currency related amount are indicated in the company's associated stock exchange currency.


General Mills  (NYSE:GIS) Intrinsic Value: DCF (FCF Based) Explanation

Unlike valuation methods such as Net Current Asset Value, Tangible Book per Share, Graham Number, Median PS Value etc, discounted Cash Flow model evaluates the companies based on their future earnings power instead of their assets.


Be Aware

What you need to know about the DCF model:

1. The DCF model evaluates a company based on its future earnings power
2. Growth is taken into account; therefore a faster growth company is worth more if everything else is the same.
3. Since we are projecting future growth, it is assumed that the company will grow at the same rate as it did during the past 10 years. Therefore this model works better for the companies that have relatively consistent performance.
4. The DCF model works poorly for inconsistent performers such as cyclicals.
5. What discount rate should you use? Your expected return from the investment is a good discount rate assumption.
6. A larger margin of safety should be required for companies with less predictable businesses.

You can screen for stocks that trade below their Intrinsic Value: DCF (FCF Based) and Intrinsic Value: DCF (Earnings Based) with the GuruFocus All-in-One Screener. Companies with a high Predictability Rank that trade at a discount to their Intrinsic Value: DCF (FCF Based) and Intrinsic Value: DCF (Earnings Based) can be found in the screen of Undervalued Predictable Companies.


General Mills Intrinsic Value: DCF (FCF Based) Related Terms

Thank you for viewing the detailed overview of General Mills's Intrinsic Value: DCF (FCF Based) provided by GuruFocus.com. Please click on the following links to see related term pages.


General Mills Business Description

General Mills logo
Industry
Address
Number One General Mills Boulevard, Minneapolis, MN, USA, 55426
General Mills is a leading global packaged food company that produces snacks, cereal, convenient meals, yogurt, dough, baking mixes and ingredients, pet food, and superpremium ice cream. Its largest brands are Nature Valley, Cheerios, Old El Paso, Yoplait, Pillsbury, Betty Crocker, BLUE, and Haagen-Dazs. In fiscal 2021, 75% of its revenue was derived from the United States, although the company also operates in Canada, Europe, Australia, Asia, and Latin America. While most of General Mills' products are sold through retail stores to consumers, the company also sells products into the food-service channel and the commercial baking industry.
Executives
Walker Sean N officer: Group President NUMBER ONE GENERAL MILLS BLVD MINNEAPOLIS MN 55426
Church John R officer: Chief SC & GBS Officer ONE GENERAL MILLS BLVD MINNEAPOLIS MN 55426
Nudi Jonathon officer: Group President GENERAL MILLS, INC. ONE GENERAL MILLS BLVD MINNEAPOLIS MN 55426
Henry Maria director C/O THE HILLSHIRE BRANDS COMPANY 3500 LACEY ROAD DOWNERS GROVE IL 60515
Neal Diane L director PUBLIC "-//W3C//DTD HTML 4.0 Transitional//EN"> Ownership Information: NEAL DIANE L a.header:link {color: #3b4fae; font-weight: bold; text-decoration: underline;} a.header:visited {color: #3b4fae; font-weight: bold; text-decoration: underline;} a.header:hover {color: #191970;}
Jenkins Jo Ann director 2211 SOUTH 47TH STREET PHOENIX AZ 85034
Lempres Elizabeth Cahill director TWO COMMERCE SQUARE 2001 MARKET STREET, SUITE 3600 PHILADELPHIA PA 19103
Uribe Jorge A. director 5 WESTBROOK CORPORATE CENTER WESTCHESTER IL 60154
Cordani David director CIGNA CORPORATION 900 COTTAGE GROVE ROAD BLOOMFIELD CT 06002
Odland Stephen A director ONE GENERAL MILLS BLVD M03-08 MINNEAPOLIS MN 55426
Clark R Kerry director C/O THE PROCTER & GAMBLE COMPANY ONE PROCTER & GAMBLE PLAZA CINCINNATI OH 45202
Sastre Maria director C/O DARDEN RESTAURANTS, INC. 1000 DARDEN CENTER DRIVE ORLANDO FL 32837
Sprunk Eric D director ONE BOWERMAN DRIVE BEAVERTON OR 97005
Ferguson Roger W. Jr. director INTERNATIONAL FLAVORS & FRAGRANCES INC. 521 WEST 57TH STREET NEW YORK NY 10019
Ogrady Shawn P officer: Group President ONE GENERAL MILLS BLVD MINNEAPOLIS MN 55426

General Mills Headlines

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