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S&P Global Intrinsic Value: DCF (FCF Based)

: $374.58 (As of Today)
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As of today (2022-08-09), S&P Global's intrinsic value calculated from the Discounted Cash Flow model is $374.58.

Note: Discounted Cash Flow model is only suitable for predictable companies (Business Predictability Rank higher than 1-Star). If the company's predictability rank is 1-Star or Not Rated, result may not be accurate due to the low predictability of business and the data will not be stored into our database.

S&P Global's Predictability Rank is 3.5-Stars.

Margin of Safety (FCF Based) using Discounted Cash Flow model for S&P Global is -0.95%.

The industry rank for S&P Global's Intrinsic Value: DCF (FCF Based) or its related term are showing as below:

SPGI's Price-to-DCF (FCF Based) is ranked worse than
66.2% of 71 companies
in the Capital Markets industry
Industry Median: 0.64 vs SPGI: 1.01

S&P Global Intrinsic Value: DCF (FCF Based) Historical Data

The historical data trend for S&P Global's Intrinsic Value: DCF (FCF Based) can be seen below:

* For Operating Data section: All numbers are indicated by the unit behind each term and all currency related amount are in USD.
* For other sections: All numbers are in millions except for per share data, ratio, and percentage. All currency related amount are indicated in the company's associated stock exchange currency.

* Premium members only.

S&P Global Annual Data
Trend Dec12 Dec13 Dec14 Dec15 Dec16 Dec17 Dec18 Dec19 Dec20 Dec21
Intrinsic Value: DCF (FCF Based)
Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only - - - - 620.61

S&P Global Quarterly Data
Sep17 Dec17 Mar18 Jun18 Sep18 Dec18 Mar19 Jun19 Sep19 Dec19 Mar20 Jun20 Sep20 Dec20 Mar21 Jun21 Sep21 Dec21 Mar22 Jun22
Intrinsic Value: DCF (FCF Based) Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only - - 620.61 470.40 374.58

S&P Global Intrinsic Value: DCF (FCF Based) Calculation

This is the intrinsic value calculated from the Discounted Cash Flow model with default parameters. In a discounted cash flow model, the future cash flow is estimated based on a cash flow growth rate and a discount rate. The cash flow of the future is discounted to its current value at the discount rate. All of the discounted future cash flow is added together to get the current intrinsic value of the company.

Usually a two-stage model is used when calculating a stock's intrinsic value using a discounted cash flow model. The first stage is called the growth stage; the second is called the terminal stage. In the growth stage the company grows at a faster rate. Because it cannot grow at that rate forever, a lower rate is used for the terminal stage.

GuruFocus DCF calculator is a two-stage model. The default values are defined as:

1. Discount Rate: d = 9%
A reasonable discount rate assumption should be at least the long term average return of the stock market, which can be estimated from risk free rate plus risk premium of stock market. We used the 10-Year Treasury Constant Maturity Rate as the risk free rate and rounded up to the nearest integer, then added a risk premium of 6% to get the estimated discount rate. Some investors use their expected rate of return, which is also reasonable. A typical discount rate can be anywhere between 6% - 20%.

2. Growth Rate in the growth stage: g1 = 20%
Growth Rate in the growth stage = average free cash flow growth rate in the past 10 years. If it is higher than 20%, we use 20%. If it is less than 5%, we use 5% instead. => Average Free Cash Flow Growth Rate in the past 10 years was 20% which is NO less than 20% => Growth Rate: 20%

3. Years of Growth Stage: y1 = 10

4. Terminal Growth Rate: g2 = 4%

5. Years of Terminal Growth: y2 = 10

6. Free Cash Flow per Share: fcf = $9.855.
However, GuruFocus DCF calculator is actually a Discounted Earnings calculator, the EPS without NRI is used as the default. The reason we are doing this is we found that historically stock prices are more correlated with earnings than free cash flow.

All of the default settings can be changed and the results are calculated automatically.

S&P Global's Intrinsic Value: DCF (FCF Based) for today is calculated as

Intrinsic Value: DCF (FCF Based)=Free Cash Flow per Share*{[(1+g1)/(1+d)+(1+g1)^2/(1+d)^2+...+(1+g1)^10/(1+d)^10]
+(1+g1)^10/(1+d)^10*[(1+g2)/(1+d)+(1+g2)^2/(1+d)^2+...+(1+g2)^10/(1+d)^10]}

set x = (1+g1)/(1+d) = (1+0.2)/(1+0.09) = 1.1009174311927
and y = (1+g2)/(1+d) = (1+0.04)/(1+0.09) = 0.95412844036697

Intrinsic Value: DCF (FCF Based)=Free Cash Flow per Share*{[x+x^2+...+x^10]+x^10*[y+y^2+...+y^10]}
=Free Cash Flow per Share*[x*(1-x^10)/(1-x)+x^10*y*(1-y^10)/(1-y)]
=9.855*38.009
=374.58

Margin of Safety (FCF Based)=(Intrinsic Value: DCF (FCF Based)-Current Price)/Intrinsic Value: DCF (FCF Based)
=(374.58-378.12)/374.58
=-0.95 %

* For Operating Data section: All numbers are indicated by the unit behind each term and all currency related amount are in USD.
* For other sections: All numbers are in millions except for per share data, ratio, and percentage. All currency related amount are indicated in the company's associated stock exchange currency.


S&P Global  (NYSE:SPGI) Intrinsic Value: DCF (FCF Based) Explanation

Unlike valuation methods such as Net Current Asset Value, Tangible Book per Share, Graham Number, Median PS Value etc, discounted Cash Flow model evaluates the companies based on their future earnings power instead of their assets.


Be Aware

What you need to know about the DCF model:

1. The DCF model evaluates a company based on its future earnings power
2. Growth is taken into account; therefore a faster growth company is worth more if everything else is the same.
3. Since we are projecting future growth, it is assumed that the company will grow at the same rate as it did during the past 10 years. Therefore this model works better for the companies that have relatively consistent performance.
4. The DCF model works poorly for inconsistent performers such as cyclicals.
5. What discount rate should you use? Your expected return from the investment is a good discount rate assumption.
6. A larger margin of safety should be required for companies with less predictable businesses.

You can screen for stocks that trade below their Intrinsic Value: DCF (FCF Based) and Intrinsic Value: DCF (Earnings Based) with the GuruFocus All-in-One Screener. Companies with a high Predictability Rank that trade at a discount to their Intrinsic Value: DCF (FCF Based) and Intrinsic Value: DCF (Earnings Based) can be found in the screen of Undervalued Predictable Companies.


S&P Global Intrinsic Value: DCF (FCF Based) Related Terms

Thank you for viewing the detailed overview of S&P Global's Intrinsic Value: DCF (FCF Based) provided by GuruFocus.com. Please click on the following links to see related term pages.


S&P Global Business Description

S&P Global logo
Address
55 Water Street, New York, NY, USA, 10041
S&P Global provides data and benchmarks to capital and commodity market participants. In 2021 and excluding IHS Markit, S&P Ratings was over 45% of the firm's revenue and over 55% of the firm's operating income. S&P Ratings is the largest credit rating agency in the world. The firm's other segments include Market Intelligence, Indices, and Platts. Market Intelligence provides desktop tools and other data solutions to investment banks, corporations, and other entities. Indices provides benchmarks for financial markets and is monetized through subscriptions, asset-based fees, and transaction-based royalties. Platts provides benchmarks to commodity markets, principally petroleum.
Executives
Evans Gay Huey director SHIPPING & RECEIVING CENTER 16930 PARK ROW DR. HOUSTON TX 77084
Esculier Jacques director C/O AMERICAN STANDARD COMPANIES INC ONE CENTENNIAL AVENUE PISCATAWAY NJ 08855
Moore Sally officer: EVP, Strategic Alliances 55 WATER STREET NEW YORK NY 10041
Kansler Adam Jason officer: President, Market Intelligence C/O MARKIT LTD, 4TH FL, ROPEMAKER PLACE 25 ROPEMAKER STREET LONDON X0 EC2Y 9LY
Tavernier Edouard officer: Head of Global Transportation C/O IHS MARKIT LTD., 4TH FLOOR ROPEMAKER PLACE, 25 ROPEMAKER STREET LONDON, ENGLAND X0 EC2Y 9LY
Kelly Robert P director ONE MELLON CENTER PITTSBURGH PA 15258-0001
Mcwhinney Deborah D director PO BOX 40 EAST BROADWAY BUTTE MT 59701
Washington Gregory N director 55 WATER STREET 45TH FLOOR NEW YORK NY 10041
Saha Saugata officer: President, S&P Global Platts 55 WATER STREET NEW YORK NY 10041
Livingston Ian Paul director 55 WATER STREET NEW YORK NY 10041
Draper Daniel E officer: CEO, S&P Dow Jones Indices 55 WATER STREET NEW YORK NY 10041
William Amelio J. director C/O CHC GROUP LTD. 190 ELGIN AVENUE, GEORGE TOWN GRAND CAYMAN E9 KY1-9005
Craig Christopher officer: SVP and Controller 55 WATER STREET LEGAL DEPARTMENT NEW YORK NY 10041
Manis Dimitra officer: Chief People Officer 55 WATER STREET S&P GLOBAL, 45TH FLOOR NEW YORK NY 10041
Leroux Monique F. director S&P GLOBAL INC. 55 WATER STREET NEW YORK NY 10041

S&P Global Headlines

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