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United Parcel Service Intrinsic Value: DCF (FCF Based)

: $168.74 (As of Today)
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As of today (2022-08-12), United Parcel Service's intrinsic value calculated from the Discounted Cash Flow model is $168.74.

Note: Discounted Cash Flow model is only suitable for predictable companies (Business Predictability Rank higher than 1-Star). If the company's predictability rank is 1-Star or Not Rated, result may not be accurate due to the low predictability of business and the data will not be stored into our database.

United Parcel Service's Predictability Rank is 3-Stars.

Margin of Safety (FCF Based) using Discounted Cash Flow model for United Parcel Service is -20.65%.

The industry rank for United Parcel Service's Intrinsic Value: DCF (FCF Based) or its related term are showing as below:

UPS's Price-to-DCF (FCF Based) is ranked worse than
67.39% of 92 companies
in the Transportation industry
Industry Median: 0.89 vs UPS: 1.21

United Parcel Service Intrinsic Value: DCF (FCF Based) Historical Data

The historical data trend for United Parcel Service's Intrinsic Value: DCF (FCF Based) can be seen below:

* For Operating Data section: All numbers are indicated by the unit behind each term and all currency related amount are in USD.
* For other sections: All numbers are in millions except for per share data, ratio, and percentage. All currency related amount are indicated in the company's associated stock exchange currency.

* Premium members only.

United Parcel Service Annual Data
Trend Dec12 Dec13 Dec14 Dec15 Dec16 Dec17 Dec18 Dec19 Dec20 Dec21
Intrinsic Value: DCF (FCF Based)
Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only -58.24 - 38.37 - 181.85

United Parcel Service Quarterly Data
Sep17 Dec17 Mar18 Jun18 Sep18 Dec18 Mar19 Jun19 Sep19 Dec19 Mar20 Jun20 Sep20 Dec20 Mar21 Jun21 Sep21 Dec21 Mar22 Jun22
Intrinsic Value: DCF (FCF Based) Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only - - 181.85 170.39 168.74

United Parcel Service Intrinsic Value: DCF (FCF Based) Calculation

This is the intrinsic value calculated from the Discounted Cash Flow model with default parameters. In a discounted cash flow model, the future cash flow is estimated based on a cash flow growth rate and a discount rate. The cash flow of the future is discounted to its current value at the discount rate. All of the discounted future cash flow is added together to get the current intrinsic value of the company.

Usually a two-stage model is used when calculating a stock's intrinsic value using a discounted cash flow model. The first stage is called the growth stage; the second is called the terminal stage. In the growth stage the company grows at a faster rate. Because it cannot grow at that rate forever, a lower rate is used for the terminal stage.

GuruFocus DCF calculator is a two-stage model. The default values are defined as:

1. Discount Rate: d = 9%
A reasonable discount rate assumption should be at least the long term average return of the stock market, which can be estimated from risk free rate plus risk premium of stock market. We used the 10-Year Treasury Constant Maturity Rate as the risk free rate and rounded up to the nearest integer, then added a risk premium of 6% to get the estimated discount rate. Some investors use their expected rate of return, which is also reasonable. A typical discount rate can be anywhere between 6% - 20%.

2. Growth Rate in the growth stage: g1 = 5%
Growth Rate in the growth stage = average free cash flow growth rate in the past 10 years. If it is higher than 20%, we use 20%. If it is less than 5%, we use 5% instead. => For companies with Average Free Cash Flow Growth Rate in the past 10 years less than 5%, GuruFocus defaults => Growth Rate: 5%

3. Years of Growth Stage: y1 = 10

4. Terminal Growth Rate: g2 = 4%

5. Years of Terminal Growth: y2 = 10

6. Free Cash Flow per Share: fcf = $12.452.
However, GuruFocus DCF calculator is actually a Discounted Earnings calculator, the EPS without NRI is used as the default. The reason we are doing this is we found that historically stock prices are more correlated with earnings than free cash flow.

All of the default settings can be changed and the results are calculated automatically.

United Parcel Service's Intrinsic Value: DCF (FCF Based) for today is calculated as

Intrinsic Value: DCF (FCF Based)=Free Cash Flow per Share*{[(1+g1)/(1+d)+(1+g1)^2/(1+d)^2+...+(1+g1)^10/(1+d)^10]
+(1+g1)^10/(1+d)^10*[(1+g2)/(1+d)+(1+g2)^2/(1+d)^2+...+(1+g2)^10/(1+d)^10]}

set x = (1+g1)/(1+d) = (1+0.05)/(1+0.09) = 0.96330275229358
and y = (1+g2)/(1+d) = (1+0.04)/(1+0.09) = 0.95412844036697

Intrinsic Value: DCF (FCF Based)=Free Cash Flow per Share*{[x+x^2+...+x^10]+x^10*[y+y^2+...+y^10]}
=Free Cash Flow per Share*[x*(1-x^10)/(1-x)+x^10*y*(1-y^10)/(1-y)]
=12.452*13.5514
=168.74

Margin of Safety (FCF Based)=(Intrinsic Value: DCF (FCF Based)-Current Price)/Intrinsic Value: DCF (FCF Based)
=(168.74-203.585)/168.74
=-20.65 %

* For Operating Data section: All numbers are indicated by the unit behind each term and all currency related amount are in USD.
* For other sections: All numbers are in millions except for per share data, ratio, and percentage. All currency related amount are indicated in the company's associated stock exchange currency.


United Parcel Service  (NYSE:UPS) Intrinsic Value: DCF (FCF Based) Explanation

Unlike valuation methods such as Net Current Asset Value, Tangible Book per Share, Graham Number, Median PS Value etc, discounted Cash Flow model evaluates the companies based on their future earnings power instead of their assets.


Be Aware

What you need to know about the DCF model:

1. The DCF model evaluates a company based on its future earnings power
2. Growth is taken into account; therefore a faster growth company is worth more if everything else is the same.
3. Since we are projecting future growth, it is assumed that the company will grow at the same rate as it did during the past 10 years. Therefore this model works better for the companies that have relatively consistent performance.
4. The DCF model works poorly for inconsistent performers such as cyclicals.
5. What discount rate should you use? Your expected return from the investment is a good discount rate assumption.
6. A larger margin of safety should be required for companies with less predictable businesses.

You can screen for stocks that trade below their Intrinsic Value: DCF (FCF Based) and Intrinsic Value: DCF (Earnings Based) with the GuruFocus All-in-One Screener. Companies with a high Predictability Rank that trade at a discount to their Intrinsic Value: DCF (FCF Based) and Intrinsic Value: DCF (Earnings Based) can be found in the screen of Undervalued Predictable Companies.


United Parcel Service Intrinsic Value: DCF (FCF Based) Related Terms

Thank you for viewing the detailed overview of United Parcel Service's Intrinsic Value: DCF (FCF Based) provided by GuruFocus.com. Please click on the following links to see related term pages.


United Parcel Service Business Description

United Parcel Service logo
Address
55 Glenlake Parkway, N.E. Atlanta, Atlanta, GA, USA, 30328
As the world's largest parcel delivery company, UPS manages a massive fleet of more than 500 planes and 100,000 vehicles, along with many hundreds of sorting facilities, to deliver an average of about 25 million packages per day to residences and businesses across the globe. UPS' domestic U.S. package operations generate 62% of total revenue while international package makes up 20%. Air and ocean freight forwarding, truckload brokerage, and contract logistics make up the remainder.
Executives
Ford Darrell L officer: Chief Human Resources Officer 55 GLENLAKE PARKWAY, NE ATLANTA GA 30328
Johnson Kathleen E director 55 GLENLAKE PARKWAY, NE ATLANTA GA 30328
Stokes Russell director 5 NECCO STREET BOSTON MA 02210
Hewett Wayne M. director 5 WESTBROOK CORPORATE CENTER WESTCHESTER IL 60154
Boratto Eva C director 55 GLENLAKE PARKWAY, NE ATLANTA GA 30328
Lane Laura J officer: Chief Corp Affairs & Comms Off 55 GLENLAKE PARKWAY, NE ATLANTA GA 30328
Hwang Angela director 235 EAST 42ND STREET ATTN: CORPORATE SECRETARY NEW YORK NY 10017
Newman Brian officer: Chief Financial Officer 55 GLENLAKE PARKWAY, NE ATLANTA GA 30328
Thomas Charlene A officer: Chief Human Resources Officer 55 GLENLAKE PARKWAY, NE ATLANTA GA 30328
Tome Carol B director 55 GLENLAKE PARKWAY, NE ATLANTA GA 30328
Markham Rudy director 55 GLENLAKE PARKWAY NE ATLANTA GA 30328
Burns Michael J director POSTFACH STEIZENSTRASSE 4 CH-8152 GLATTBRUGG ZURICH SWITZERLAND V8 00000
Stankey John T director 208 S. AKARD ST. DALLAS TX 75202
Johnson William R director UNITED PARCEL SERVICE, INC. 55 GLENLAKE PARKWAY, NE ATLANTA GA 30328
Moison Franck J director C/O COLGATE PALMOLIVE CO 300 PARK AVE 15TH FL NEW YORK NY 10022

United Parcel Service Headlines

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