ICF International (NAS:ICFI) Intrinsic Value: DCF (Dividends Based)

: $10.17 (As of Today)

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As of today (2023-03-28), ICF International's intrinsic value calculated from the Discounted Dividend model is $10.17.

Note: Discounted Dividend model is only suitable for companies who have a consistant distribution history with more than 5 years. If the company's dividends does not remain steady over a long period, results may not be accurate due to the low consistency. The model is also only suitable for predictable companies (Business Predictability Rank higher than 1-Star). If the company's Predictability Rank is 1-Star or Not Rated, the data will not be stored into our database.

ICF International's Predictability Rank is 5-Stars.

Margin of Safety % (DCF Dividends Based) using Discounted Dividend Model for ICF International is -950.64%.

The historical rank and industry rank for ICF International's Intrinsic Value: DCF (Dividends Based) or its related term are showing as below:

ICFI' s Price-to-DCF (Dividends Based) Range Over the Past 10 Years
Min: 3.65 Med: 6 Max: 9.74
Current: 10.45

During the past 13 years, the highest Price-to-Intrinsic-Value-DCF (Dividends Based) Ratio of ICF International was 9.74. The lowest was 3.65. And the median was 6.00.

ICFI's Price-to-DCF (Dividends Based) is ranked worse than
99.23% of 130 companies
in the Business Services industry
Industry Median: 1.93 vs ICFI: 10.45

ICF International Intrinsic Value: DCF (Dividends Based) Historical Data

The historical data trend for ICF International's Intrinsic Value: DCF (Dividends Based) can be seen below:

* For Operating Data section: All numbers are indicated by the unit behind each term and all currency related amount are in USD.
* For other sections: All numbers are in millions except for per share data, ratio, and percentage. All currency related amount are indicated in the company's associated stock exchange currency.

* Premium members only.

ICF International Annual Data

Trend

Dec13

Dec14

Dec15

Dec16

Dec17

Dec18

Dec19

Dec20

Dec21

Dec22

Intrinsic Value: DCF (Dividends Based)

12.21

15.26

20.35

15.26

10.17

ICF International Quarterly Data
	Mar18	Jun18	Sep18	Dec18	Mar19	Jun19	Sep19	Dec19	Mar20	Jun20	Sep20	Dec20	Mar21	Jun21	Sep21	Dec21	Mar22	Jun22	Sep22	Dec22
Intrinsic Value: DCF (Dividends Based)																15.26	12.21	12.21	10.17	10.17

Competitive Comparison

For the Consulting Services subindustry, ICF International's Intrinsic Value: DCF (Dividends Based), along with its competitors' market caps and Intrinsic Value: DCF (Dividends Based) data, can be viewed below:

* Competitive companies are chosen from companies within the same industry, with headquarter located in same country, with closest market capitalization; x-axis shows the market cap, and y-axis shows the term value; the bigger the dot, the larger the market cap. Note that "N/A" values will not show up in the chart.

Annual Data Quarterly Data

ICF International Intrinsic Value: DCF (Dividends Based) Distribution

For the Business Services industry and Industrials sector, ICF International's Intrinsic Value: DCF (Dividends Based) distribution charts can be found below:

* The bar in red indicates where ICF International's Intrinsic Value: DCF (Dividends Based) falls in comparison to its industry or sector. The grey bar indicates the Intrinsic Value: DCF (Dividends Based)'s extreme value range as defined by GuruFocus.

ICF International Intrinsic Value: DCF (Dividends Based) Calculation

This is the intrinsic value calculated from the Discounted Dividend Model with default parameters. H-Model formula is applied here, in which dividends are used in the calculation with two stage of dividend growth. The calculation for H-Model DDM valuation shows as below.

The H-model formula consists of two parts. The first component of the equation adds the value from the high growth rate period, which is called growth stage. The second component of the formula considers the value of the stock based on the long-term growth rate, which is called the terminal stage. It ignores the high growth rate period. In the growth stage, the dividends of company grows at a faster rate. As it cannot grow at that rate forever, a lower rate is used for the terminal stage.

GuruFocus DDM calculator is a two-stage model. The default values are defined as:

1. Discount Rate: d = 10%
A reasonable discount rate assumption should be at least the long term average return of the stock market, which can be estimated from risk free rate plus risk premium of stock market. We used the 10-Year Treasury Constant Maturity Rate as the risk free rate and rounded up to the nearest integer, then added a risk premium of 6% to get the estimated discount rate. Some investors use their expected rate of return, which is also reasonable. A typical discount rate can be anywhere between 6% - 20%.

2. Dividend Growth Rate in the growth stage: g1 = 5%
Growth Rate in the growth stage = average dividend growth rate in the past 5 years. If it is higher than 20%, we use 20%. If it is less than 5%, we use 5% instead. => Average Dividend Growth Rate in the past 5 years was 0.00% which is lower than 5%, GuruFocus defaults => Growth Rate: 5%

3. Years of Growth Stage: y1 = 10

4. Terminal Growth Rate: g2 = 4%

5. Dividends per Share: dividends per share = $0.560.
GuruFocus DCF calculator applies H-Model to the calculation here, using dividends per share TTM as the default.

All of the default settings can be changed in the DCF calculator and the results are calculated automatically.

ICF International's Intrinsic Value: DCF (Dividends Based) for today is calculated as:

Intrinsic Value: DCF (Dividends Based)

Dividends per Share

( g1

g2 )

( d

g2 )

y1 / 2

Dividends per Share

( 1

g2 )

( d

g2 )

0.560

(0.05

0.04)

(0.1

0.04)

10 / 2

0.560

( 1

0.04)

(0.1

0.04)

10.17

Margin of Safety % (DCF Dividends Based)	=	(Intrinsic Value: DCF (Dividends Based)	-	Current Price)	/	Intrinsic Value: DCF (Dividends Based)
	=	(10.17	-	106.85)	/	10.17
	=	-950.64 %

ICF International (NAS:ICFI) Intrinsic Value: DCF (Dividends Based) Explanation

Unlike valuation methods such as Net Current Asset Value, Tangible Book per Share, Graham Number, Median PS Value etc, discounted Dividends model evaluates the companies based on their power of future dividend distribution instead of their assets.

Be Aware

What you need to know about Discounted Dividends model:

1. The Discounted Dividends model evaluates a company based on its future dividends distribution power
2. Dividend growth is taken into account; therefore a company with a higher dividend growth rate is worth more if everything else is the same.
3. Since we are projecting future growth, it is assumed that the company will grow at the same rate as it did during the past 5 years. Therefore this model works better for the companies with consistently steady dividends distributed.
4. The Discounted Dividends model works poorly for inconsistent dividends distributor like high growth companies.
5. Your expected return from the investment is a reasonable discount rate assumption.
6. A larger margin of safety should be required for companies with less dividends distributed.

You can screen for stocks that trade below their Intrinsic Value: DCF (FCF Based) and Intrinsic Value: DCF (Earnings Based) and Intrinsic Value: DCF (Dividends Based) with the GuruFocus All-in-One Screener. Companies with a high Predictability Rank that trade at a discount to their Intrinsic Value: DCF (FCF Based) and Intrinsic Value: DCF (Earnings Based) can be found in the screen of Undervalued Predictable Companies.

ICF International Intrinsic Value: DCF (Dividends Based) Related Terms

Thank you for viewing the detailed overview of ICF International's Intrinsic Value: DCF (Dividends Based) provided by GuruFocus.com. Please click on the following links to see related term pages.

ICF International (NAS:ICFI) Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Industrials » Business Services » ICF International Inc (NAS:ICFI) » Definitions » Intrinsic Value: DCF (Dividends Based)

Comparable Companies

Traded in Other Exchanges

G6V:Germany

Address

9300 Lee Highway, Fairfax, VA, USA, 22031

Website

https://www.icf.com

ICF International Inc provides professional services and technology-based solutions to government and commercial clients, including management, marketing, technology, and policy consulting and implementation services. Its services primarily support clients that operate in four key markets that include Energy, Environment, and Infrastructure, Health, Education, and Social Programs, Safety and Security and Consumer and Financial. The Company's major clients are United States federal government departments and agencies.

Executives

Anne F Choate	officer: Executive Vice President	9300 LEE HIGHWAY, FAIRFAX VA 22031
Barry M Broadus	officer: Chief Financial Officer	9300 LEE HIGHWAY, FAIRFAX VA 22031
Michelle A Williams	director	9300 LEE HIGHWAY, FAIRFAX VA 22031
Lee Rodney Mark Jr.	officer: Executive Vice President	9300 LEE HIGHWAY, FAIRFAX VA 22031
Scott B Salmirs	director	551 FIFTH AVE, SUITE 300, NEW YORK NY 10176
Donald J Terreri	officer: VP & Principal Acct. Officer	9300 LEE HIGHWAY, FAIRFAX VA 22031
Marilyn C Crouther	director	9300 LEE HIGHWAY, FAIRFAX VA 22031
Bettina Garcia Welsh	officer: Chief Financial Officer	9300 LEE HIGHWAY, FAIRFAX VA 22031
Theresa D Golinvaux	officer: SVP & Principal Acct. Officer	9300 LEE HIGHWAY, FAIRFAX VA 20131
Randall Mehl	director	8620 N DEAN CIR, RIVER HILLS WI 53217
Van Handel Michael J	director	MANPOWERGROUP INC., 100 MANPOWER PLACE, MILWAUKEE WI 53212
Sergio J Ostria	officer: Executive Vice President	9300 LEE HIGHWAY, FAIRFAX VA 22031
Phillip Eck	officer: VP & Principal Acct Officer	9300 LEE HIGHWAY, FAIRFAX VA 22031
Richard Dewayne Taylor	officer: SVP & Principal Acct. Officer	9300 LEE HIGHWAY, FAIRFAX VA 22031
Sanjay Gupta	director	2775 SANDERS ROAD, NORTHBROOK IL 60062