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Marriott Vacations Worldwide (Marriott Vacations Worldwide) Intrinsic Value: DCF (Dividends Based) : $140.76 (As of Apr. 27, 2024)


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What is Marriott Vacations Worldwide Intrinsic Value: DCF (Dividends Based)?

As of today (2024-04-27), Marriott Vacations Worldwide's intrinsic value calculated from the Discounted Dividend model is $140.76.

Note: Discounted Dividend model is only suitable for companies who have a consistant distribution history. If the company's dividends does not remain steady over a long period, results may not be accurate due to the low consistency. The model is also only suitable for predictable companies (Business Predictability Rank higher than 1-Star) with dividend payments. If the company's Predictability Rank is 1-Star or Not Rated, or if the company does not pay dividend, the data will not be stored into our database.

Marriott Vacations Worldwide's Predictability Rank is 1-Star. Thus, this page is only used for demonstration purposes and the DCF related results in the screener and portfolio will appear as zero.

Margin of Safety % (DCF Dividends Based) using Discounted Dividend Model for Marriott Vacations Worldwide is 28.34%.

The historical rank and industry rank for Marriott Vacations Worldwide's Intrinsic Value: DCF (Dividends Based) or its related term are showing as below:

VAC's Price-to-DCF (Dividends Based) is not ranked *
in the Travel & Leisure industry.
Industry Median: 1.035
* Ranked among companies with meaningful Price-to-DCF (Dividends Based) only.

Marriott Vacations Worldwide Intrinsic Value: DCF (Dividends Based) Historical Data

The historical data trend for Marriott Vacations Worldwide's Intrinsic Value: DCF (Dividends Based) can be seen below:

* For Operating Data section: All numbers are indicated by the unit behind each term and all currency related amount are in USD.
* For other sections: All numbers are in millions except for per share data, ratio, and percentage. All currency related amount are indicated in the company's associated stock exchange currency.

* Premium members only.

Marriott Vacations Worldwide Intrinsic Value: DCF (Dividends Based) Chart

Marriott Vacations Worldwide Annual Data
Trend Dec14 Dec15 Dec16 Dec17 Dec18 Dec19 Dec20 Dec21 Dec22 Dec23
Intrinsic Value: DCF (Dividends Based)
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Marriott Vacations Worldwide Quarterly Data
Mar19 Jun19 Sep19 Dec19 Mar20 Jun20 Sep20 Dec20 Mar21 Jun21 Sep21 Dec21 Mar22 Jun22 Sep22 Dec22 Mar23 Jun23 Sep23 Dec23
Intrinsic Value: DCF (Dividends Based) Get a 7-Day Free Trial Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only - - - - -

Competitive Comparison of Marriott Vacations Worldwide's Intrinsic Value: DCF (Dividends Based)

For the Resorts & Casinos subindustry, Marriott Vacations Worldwide's Price-to-DCF (Dividends Based), along with its competitors' market caps and Price-to-DCF (Dividends Based) data, can be viewed below:

* Competitive companies are chosen from companies within the same industry, with headquarter located in same country, with closest market capitalization; x-axis shows the market cap, and y-axis shows the term value; the bigger the dot, the larger the market cap. Note that "N/A" values will not show up in the chart.


Marriott Vacations Worldwide's Price-to-DCF (Dividends Based) Distribution in the Travel & Leisure Industry

For the Travel & Leisure industry and Consumer Cyclical sector, Marriott Vacations Worldwide's Price-to-DCF (Dividends Based) distribution charts can be found below:

* The bar in red indicates where Marriott Vacations Worldwide's Price-to-DCF (Dividends Based) falls into.



Marriott Vacations Worldwide Intrinsic Value: DCF (Dividends Based) Calculation

This is the intrinsic value calculated from the Discounted Dividend Model with default parameters. The calculation method is the same as Discounted Cash Flow model except adjusted dividend are used in the calculation instead of free cash flow. This is the default method of calculation with GuruFocus DCF calculator.

Usually a two-stage model is used in calculating the intrinsic value with discounted cash flow model. The first stage is called growth stage; the second is called the terminal stage. In the growth stage the company grows at a faster rate. Because it cannot grow at that rate forever, a lower rate is used for the terminal stage.

GuruFocus DDM calculator is a two-stage model. The default values are defined as:

1. Discount Rate: d = 11%
A reasonable discount rate assumption should be at least the long term average return of the stock market, which can be estimated from risk free rate plus risk premium of stock market. GuruFocus uses 10-Year Treasury Constant Maturity Rate as the risk-free rate and rounded up to the nearest integer. It is updated daily. The current risk-free rate is 4.66%. Please go to Economic Indicators page for more information. Please note that we use the 10-Year Treasury Constant Maturity Rate of the country/region where the company is headquartered. If the data for that country/region is not available, then we will use the 10-Year Treasury Constant Maturity Rate of the United States as default. Then we added a risk premium of 6% to get the estimated discount rate. Some investors use their expected rate of return, which is also reasonable. A typical discount rate can be anywhere between 6% - 20%.

2. Dividend Growth Rate in the growth stage: g1 = 13.70%
The Growth Rate in the growth stage is initially set as the default 10-Year Dividend Growth Rate. In cases where the 10-year growth rate is unavailable, it defaults to using the 5-Year Dividend Growth Rate. If both the 10-year and 5-year growth rates are unavailable, the system defaults to the 3-Year Dividend Growth Rate.
However, it's important to note that there is a growth rate range. If the calculated growth rate exceeds 20%, it will be capped at 20%. Conversely, if the calculated growth rate falls below 5%, it will be adjusted to 5% to maintain a reasonable range.
=> Marriott Vacations Worldwide's average Dividend Growth Rate in the past 5 years was 13.70%, which is between 5% and 20%. => GuruFocus defaults => Growth Rate: 13.70%

3. Years of Growth Stage: y1 = 10

4. Terminal Growth Rate: g2 = 4%

5. Dividends per Share: adjusted dividends per share = $6.8715.
GuruFocus uses adjusted dividends per share by default to ensure that the valuation reflects the total value of the company, as the actual dividend is only a portion of the total value.

All of the default settings can be changed in the DCF calculator and the results are calculated automatically.

Marriott Vacations Worldwide's Intrinsic Value: DCF (Dividends Based) for today is calculated as:

Intrinsic Value: DCF (Dividends Based)=Dividends per Share*{[(1+g1)/(1+d)+(1+g1)^2/(1+d)^2+...+(1+g1)^10/(1+d)^10]
+(1+g1)^10/(1+d)^10*[(1+g2)/(1+d)+(1+g2)^2/(1+d)^2+...+(1+g2)^10/(1+d)^10]}

set x = (1+g1)/(1+d) = (1+0.137)/(1+0.11) = 1.0243243243243
and y = (1+g2)/(1+d) = (1+0.04)/(1+0.11) = 0.93693693693694

Intrinsic Value: DCF (Dividends Based)=Dividends per Share*{[x+x^2+...+x^10]+x^10*[y+y^2+...+y^10]}
=Dividends per Share*[x*(1-x^10)/(1-x)+x^10*y*(1-y^10)/(1-y)]
=6.8715*20.4843
=140.76

Margin of Safety % (DCF Dividends Based) = (Intrinsic Value: DCF (Dividends Based)-Current Price) /Intrinsic Value: DCF (Dividends Based)
= (140.76 - 100.87) / 140.76
= 28.34 %

* For Operating Data section: All numbers are indicated by the unit behind each term and all currency related amount are in USD.
* For other sections: All numbers are in millions except for per share data, ratio, and percentage. All currency related amount are indicated in the company's associated stock exchange currency.


Marriott Vacations Worldwide  (NYSE:VAC) Intrinsic Value: DCF (Dividends Based) Explanation

Unlike valuation methods such as Net Current Asset Value, Tangible Book per Share, Graham Number, Median PS Value etc, discounted Dividends model evaluates the companies based on their power of future dividend distribution instead of their assets.


Be Aware

What you need to know about Discounted Dividends model:

1. The Discounted Dividends model evaluates a company based on its future dividends distribution power
2. Dividend growth is taken into account; therefore a company with a higher dividend growth rate is worth more if everything else is the same.
3. Since we are projecting future growth, it is assumed that the company will grow at the same rate as it did during the past 10 years. Therefore this model works better for the companies with consistently steady dividends distributed.
4. The Discounted Dividends model works poorly for inconsistent dividends distributor like high growth companies.
5. Your expected return from the investment is a reasonable discount rate assumption.
6. A larger margin of safety should be required for companies with less dividends distributed.

You can screen for stocks that trade below their Intrinsic Value: DCF (FCF Based) and Intrinsic Value: DCF (Earnings Based) and Intrinsic Value: DCF (Dividends Based) with the GuruFocus All-in-One Screener. Companies with a high Predictability Rank that trade at a discount to their Intrinsic Value: DCF (FCF Based) and Intrinsic Value: DCF (Earnings Based) can be found in the screen of Undervalued Predictable Companies.


Marriott Vacations Worldwide Intrinsic Value: DCF (Dividends Based) Related Terms

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Marriott Vacations Worldwide (Marriott Vacations Worldwide) Business Description

Traded in Other Exchanges
Address
9002 San Marco Court, Orlando, FL, USA, 32819
Marriott Vacations Worldwide Corp functions in the United States leisure industry. It owns and manages a cluster of resorts and accommodation facilities under trademarks like Marriott Vacation Club, Grand Residencies, and The Ritz-Carlton Destination Club predominantly in the United States. Some of its properties are also spread across Europe and Asia Pacific. Marriott's major revenue components include the sale of vacation ownership products such as luxurious vacation packages. In addition, it offers purchase money financing to the end users of its core services. The company operates in two reportable segments: Vacation Ownership and Exchange & Third-Party Management. The majority of revenue is derived from the Vacation Ownership segment.
Executives
Jason P Marino officer: EVP, Chief Financial Officer 9002 SAN MARCO COURT, ORLANDO FL 32819
Anthony E Terry officer: EVP, CFO 9002 SAN MARCO COURT, ORLANDO FL 32819
Geller John E Jr officer: Exec. VP and CFO 6649 WESTWOOD BLVD., ORLANDO FL 32821
Raman Bukkapatnam officer: EVP & CIO 9002 SAN MARCO COURT, ORLANDO FL 32819
Dwight D. Smith officer: Sr. VP & CIO 6649 WESTWOOD BLVD., ORLANDO FL 32821
Stephanie Sobeck Butera officer: EVP & COO of HVO 9002 SAN MARCO CT, ORLANDO FL 32819
Michael E. Yonker officer: Sr. VP & Chief HR Officer 6649 WESTWOOD BLVD., ORLANDO FL 32821
Lizabeth Kane-hanan officer: Exec. VP & Chief Growth & Inv. 6649 WESTWOOD BLVD., ORLANDO FL 32821
Kathleen A. Pighini officer: SVP and CAO 9002 SAN MARCO COURT, ORLANDO FL 32819
Jonice Gray Tucker director 9002 SAN MARCO COURT, ORLANDO FL 32819
R. Lee Cunningham officer: Exec VP & COO-N.Am & Carribean 6649 WESTWOOD BLVD., ORLANDO FL 32821
Melquiades R. Martinez director 450 SOUTH ORANGE AVENUE, SUITE 250, ORLANDO FL 32801-3443
Hunter James H. Iv officer: Exec. VP & General Counsel 6649 WESTWOOD BLVD., ORLANDO FL 32821
Brian E. Miller officer: ExecVP-Sales,Marketing&ServOp 6649 WESTWOOD BLVD., ORLANDO FL 32821
Stephen P Weisz director, officer: President & CEO 6649 WESTWOOD BLVD., ORLANDO FL 32821