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Apple Intrinsic Value: Projected FCF

: $53.39 (As of Today)
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Since the intrinsic value calculations based on Discounted Cash Flow Intrinsic Value: DCF (FCF Based), or Discounted Earnings Intrinsic Value: DCF (Earnings Based) cannot be applied to companies without consistent revenue and earnings, GuruFocus developed a valuation model based on normalized Free Cash Flow and Book Value of the company. The details of how we calculate the intrinsic value of stocks are described in detail here.

As of today (2021-04-16), Apple's Intrinsic Value: Projected FCF is $53.39. The stock price of Apple is $134.160000. Therefore, Apple's Price-to-Intrinsic-Value-Projected-FCF of today is 2.5.

NAS:AAPL' s Price-to-Intrinsic-Value-Projected-FCF Range Over the Past 10 Years
Min: 0.67   Med: 1.4   Max: 5.67
Current: 2.51
0.67
5.67

During the past 13 years, the highest Price-to-Intrinsic-Value-Projected-FCF of Apple was 5.67. The lowest was 0.67. And the median was 1.40.

NAS:AAPL's Price-to-Intrinsic-Value-Projected-FCF is ranked lower than
70% of the 1573 Companies
in the Hardware industry.

( Industry Median: 1.47 vs. NAS:AAPL: 2.51 )

Apple Intrinsic Value: Projected FCF Historical Data

* All numbers are in millions except for per share data and ratio. All numbers are indicated in the company's associated stock exchange currency.

* Premium members only.

Apple Annual Data
Sep11 Sep12 Sep13 Sep14 Sep15 Sep16 Sep17 Sep18 Sep19 Sep20
Intrinsic Value: Projected FCF Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only 37.18 41.51 46.03 48.58 47.25

Apple Quarterly Data
Mar16 Jun16 Sep16 Dec16 Mar17 Jun17 Sep17 Dec17 Mar18 Jun18 Sep18 Dec18 Mar19 Jun19 Sep19 Dec19 Mar20 Jun20 Sep20 Dec20
Intrinsic Value: Projected FCF Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only 52.56 51.45 49.51 47.25 53.39
Competitive Comparison
* Competitive companies are chosen from companies within the same industry, with headquarter located in same country, with closest market capitalization; x-axis shows the market cap, and y-axis shows the term value; the bigger the dot, the larger the market cap.

Apple Intrinsic Value: Projected FCF Distribution

* The bar in red indicates where Apple's Intrinsic Value: Projected FCF falls into.


Apple Intrinsic Value: Projected FCF Calculation

Since the intrinsic value calculations based on Discounted Cash Flow Intrinsic Value: DCF (FCF Based), or Discounted Earnings Intrinsic Value: DCF (Earnings Based) cannot be applied to companies without consistent revenue and earnings, GuruFocus developed a valuation model based on normalized Free Cash Flow and Book Value of the company.

The details of how we calculate the intrinsic value of stocks are described in detail here.

This method smooths out the free cash flow over the past 6-7 years, multiplies the results by a growth multiple, and adds a portion of Total Stockholders Equity.

Intrinsic Value: Projected FCF = ( Growth Multiple * Free Cash Flow (6 year avg) + 0.8 * Total Stockholders Equity (most recent) ) / Shares Outstanding (Diluted Average)

In the case of negative Total Stockholders Equity, the following formula is used (see Explanation section below for the reason):

Intrinsic Value: Projected FCF = ( Growth Multiple * Free Cash Flow (6 year avg) + Total Stockholders Equity (most recent) / 0.8 ) / Shares Outstanding (Diluted Average)


Add all the Free Cash Flow together and divide 6 will get Apple's Free Cash Flow(6 year avg) = $65,071.04.

Apple's Intrinsic Value: Projected FCF for today is calculated as

Intrinsic Value: Projected FCF=(Growth Multiple*Free Cash Flow (6 year avg)+Total Stockholders Equity (Dec20)*0.8)/Shares Outstanding (Diluted Average)
=(13.228282734574*65071.04+66224*0.8)/17113.688
=53.39

* All numbers are in millions except for per share data and ratio. All numbers are indicated in the company's associated stock exchange currency.

Apple  (NAS:AAPL) Intrinsic Value: Projected FCF Explanation

The growth multiple is capped between 8.35 and 17.74.

Total Stockholders Equity weighting is more art than science and it should always be revisited in more detail when researching a company. Weightings from 0% to 100% to more than 100% are possible. 80% was chosen as a happy median after taking the above ideas into consideration.

Apple's Price-to-Intrinsic-Value-Projected-FCF for today is calculated as

Price-to-Intrinsic-Value-Projected-FCF=Share Price/Intrinsic Value: Projected FCF
=134.160000/53.393360621787
=2.51

* All numbers are in millions except for per share data and ratio. All numbers are indicated in the company's associated stock exchange currency.

Apple Intrinsic Value: Projected FCF Related Terms

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