Metcash (ASX:MTS) Intrinsic Value: Projected FCF

Metcash Annual Data
	Trend	Apr14	Apr15	Apr16	Apr17	Apr18	Apr19	Apr20	Apr21	Apr22	Apr23
Intrinsic Value: Projected FCF							3.31	3.42	3.22	3.69	5.18

Metcash Semi-Annual Data
	Apr14	Oct14	Apr15	Oct15	Apr16	Oct16	Apr17	Oct17	Apr18	Oct18	Apr19	Oct19	Apr20	Oct20	Apr21	Oct21	Apr22	Oct22	Apr23	Oct23
Intrinsic Value: Projected FCF																-	3.69	-	5.18	-

For the Food Distribution subindustry, Metcash's Price-to-Projected-FCF, along with its competitors' market caps and Price-to-Projected-FCF data, can be viewed below:

* Competitive companies are chosen from companies within the same industry, with headquarter located in same country, with closest market capitalization; x-axis shows the market cap, and y-axis shows the term value; the bigger the dot, the larger the market cap. Note that "N/A" values will not show up in the chart.

For the Retail - Defensive industry and Consumer Defensive sector, Metcash's Price-to-Projected-FCF distribution charts can be found below:

* The bar in red indicates where Metcash's Price-to-Projected-FCF falls into.

Metcash Intrinsic Value: Projected FCF Calculation

Since the intrinsic value calculations based on Discounted Cash Flow Intrinsic Value: DCF (FCF Based), or Discounted Earnings Intrinsic Value: DCF (Earnings Based) cannot be applied to companies without consistent revenue and earnings, GuruFocus developed a valuation model based on normalized Free Cash Flow and Book Value of the company.

The details of how we calculate the intrinsic value of stocks are described in detail here.

This method smooths out the free cash flow over the past 6-7 years, multiplies the results by a growth multiple, and adds a portion of Total Stockholders Equity.

Intrinsic Value: Projected FCF = ( Growth Multiple * Free Cash Flow (6 year avg) + 0.8 * Total Stockholders Equity (most recent) ) / Shares Outstanding (Diluted Average)

In the case of negative Total Stockholders Equity, the following formula is used (see Explanation section below for the reason):

Intrinsic Value: Projected FCF = ( Growth Multiple * Free Cash Flow (6 year avg) + Total Stockholders Equity (most recent) / 0.8 ) / Shares Outstanding (Diluted Average)

Add all the Free Cash Flow together and divide 6 will get Metcash's Free Cash Flow(6 year avg) = A$280.33.

Metcash's Intrinsic Value: Projected FCF for today is calculated as

* For Operating Data section: All numbers are indicated by the unit behind each term and all currency related amount are in USD.
* For other sections: All numbers are in millions except for per share data, ratio, and percentage. All currency related amount are indicated in the company's associated stock exchange currency.

Metcash  (ASX:MTS) Intrinsic Value: Projected FCF Explanation

The growth multiple is capped between 8.35 and 17.74.

Total Stockholders Equity weighting is more art than science and it should always be revisited in more detail when researching a company. Weightings from 0% to 100% to more than 100% are possible. 80% was chosen as a happy median after taking the above ideas into consideration.

Metcash's Price-to-Intrinsic-Value-Projected-FCF for today is calculated as

* For Operating Data section: All numbers are indicated by the unit behind each term and all currency related amount are in USD.
* For other sections: All numbers are in millions except for per share data, ratio, and percentage. All currency related amount are indicated in the company's associated stock exchange currency.

Metcash Intrinsic Value: Projected FCF Related Terms

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Metcash (ASX:MTS) Business Description