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Evolution Petroleum (AMEX:EPM) Intrinsic Value: Projected FCF

: $6.84 (As of Today)
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Since the intrinsic value calculations based on Discounted Cash Flow Intrinsic Value: DCF (FCF Based), or Discounted Earnings Intrinsic Value: DCF (Earnings Based) cannot be applied to companies without consistent revenue and earnings, GuruFocus developed a valuation model based on normalized Free Cash Flow and Book Value of the company. The details of how we calculate the intrinsic value of stocks are described in detail here.

As of today (2024-03-03), Evolution Petroleum's Intrinsic Value: Projected FCF is $6.84. The stock price of Evolution Petroleum is $5.83. Therefore, Evolution Petroleum's Price-to-Intrinsic-Value-Projected-FCF of today is 0.9.

The historical rank and industry rank for Evolution Petroleum's Intrinsic Value: Projected FCF or its related term are showing as below:

EPM' s Price-to-Projected-FCF Range Over the Past 10 Years
Min: 0.41   Med: 1.49   Max: 15.15
Current: 0.85

During the past 13 years, the highest Price-to-Intrinsic-Value-Projected-FCF of Evolution Petroleum was 15.15. The lowest was 0.41. And the median was 1.49.

EPM's Price-to-Projected-FCF is ranked better than
50.07% of 679 companies
in the Oil & Gas industry
Industry Median: 0.85 vs EPM: 0.85

Evolution Petroleum Intrinsic Value: Projected FCF Historical Data

The historical data trend for Evolution Petroleum's Intrinsic Value: Projected FCF can be seen below:

* For Operating Data section: All numbers are indicated by the unit behind each term and all currency related amount are in USD.
* For other sections: All numbers are in millions except for per share data, ratio, and percentage. All currency related amount are indicated in the company's associated stock exchange currency.

* Premium members only.

Evolution Petroleum Annual Data
Trend Jun14 Jun15 Jun16 Jun17 Jun18 Jun19 Jun20 Jun21 Jun22 Jun23
Intrinsic Value: Projected FCF
Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only 6.53 4.68 3.13 4.28 7.18

Evolution Petroleum Quarterly Data
Mar19 Jun19 Sep19 Dec19 Mar20 Jun20 Sep20 Dec20 Mar21 Jun21 Sep21 Dec21 Mar22 Jun22 Sep22 Dec22 Mar23 Jun23 Sep23 Dec23
Intrinsic Value: Projected FCF Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only 5.95 7.68 7.18 6.92 6.84

Competitive Comparison

For the Oil & Gas E&P subindustry, Evolution Petroleum's Price-to-Projected-FCF, along with its competitors' market caps and Price-to-Projected-FCF data, can be viewed below:

* Competitive companies are chosen from companies within the same industry, with headquarter located in same country, with closest market capitalization; x-axis shows the market cap, and y-axis shows the term value; the bigger the dot, the larger the market cap. Note that "N/A" values will not show up in the chart.


Evolution Petroleum Price-to-Projected-FCF Distribution

For the Oil & Gas industry and Energy sector, Evolution Petroleum's Price-to-Projected-FCF distribution charts can be found below:

* The bar in red indicates where Evolution Petroleum's Price-to-Projected-FCF falls into.



Evolution Petroleum Intrinsic Value: Projected FCF Calculation

Since the intrinsic value calculations based on Discounted Cash Flow Intrinsic Value: DCF (FCF Based), or Discounted Earnings Intrinsic Value: DCF (Earnings Based) cannot be applied to companies without consistent revenue and earnings, GuruFocus developed a valuation model based on normalized Free Cash Flow and Book Value of the company.

The details of how we calculate the intrinsic value of stocks are described in detail here.

This method smooths out the free cash flow over the past 6-7 years, multiplies the results by a growth multiple, and adds a portion of Total Stockholders Equity.

Intrinsic Value: Projected FCF = ( Growth Multiple * Free Cash Flow (6 year avg) + 0.8 * Total Stockholders Equity (most recent) ) / Shares Outstanding (Diluted Average)

In the case of negative Total Stockholders Equity, the following formula is used (see Explanation section below for the reason):

Intrinsic Value: Projected FCF = ( Growth Multiple * Free Cash Flow (6 year avg) + Total Stockholders Equity (most recent) / 0.8 ) / Shares Outstanding (Diluted Average)


Add all the Free Cash Flow together and divide 6 will get Evolution Petroleum's Free Cash Flow(6 year avg) = $10.45.

Evolution Petroleum's Intrinsic Value: Projected FCF for today is calculated as

Intrinsic Value: Projected FCF=(Growth Multiple*Free Cash Flow (6 year avg)+Total Stockholders Equity (Dec23)*0.8)/Shares Outstanding (Diluted Average)
=(14.862653310476*10.44544+87.439*0.8)/32.900
=6.84

* For Operating Data section: All numbers are indicated by the unit behind each term and all currency related amount are in USD.
* For other sections: All numbers are in millions except for per share data, ratio, and percentage. All currency related amount are indicated in the company's associated stock exchange currency.


Evolution Petroleum  (AMEX:EPM) Intrinsic Value: Projected FCF Explanation

The growth multiple is capped between 8.35 and 17.74.

Total Stockholders Equity weighting is more art than science and it should always be revisited in more detail when researching a company. Weightings from 0% to 100% to more than 100% are possible. 80% was chosen as a happy median after taking the above ideas into consideration.

Evolution Petroleum's Price-to-Intrinsic-Value-Projected-FCF for today is calculated as

Price-to-Intrinsic-Value-Projected-FCF=Share Price/Intrinsic Value: Projected FCF
=5.83/6.8449286746315
=0.85

* For Operating Data section: All numbers are indicated by the unit behind each term and all currency related amount are in USD.
* For other sections: All numbers are in millions except for per share data, ratio, and percentage. All currency related amount are indicated in the company's associated stock exchange currency.


Evolution Petroleum Intrinsic Value: Projected FCF Related Terms

Thank you for viewing the detailed overview of Evolution Petroleum's Intrinsic Value: Projected FCF provided by GuruFocus.com. Please click on the following links to see related term pages.


Evolution Petroleum (AMEX:EPM) Business Description

Industry
Traded in Other Exchanges
Address
1155 Dairy Ashford Road, Suite 425, Houston, TX, USA, 77079
Evolution Petroleum Corp is an independent oil and gas company operating in the US. It is engaged primarily in the acquisition, exploitation, and development of properties for the production of crude oil and natural gas, onshore in the United States. The company's revenues are primarily generated from its crude oil, natural gas and NGL production from the Jonah Field in Sublette County, Wyoming; the Williston Basin in North Dakota; the Barnett Shale located in North Texas; the Hamilton Dome Field in Wyoming; and the Delhi Field in Northeast Louisiana. The revenue generated by the company includes royalty, mineral and working interests.
Executives
John Mark Bunch officer: COO 1155 DAIRY ASHFORD RD., SUITE 425, HOUSTON TX 77079
Kelly Beatty officer: Principal Accounting Officer 1155 DAIRY ASHFORD RD., SUITE 425, HOUSTON TX 77079
Myra C Bierria director 1155 DAIRY ASHFORD, SUITE 425, HOUSTON TX 77079
Ryan Stash officer: SVP & CFO 1155 DAIRY ASHFORD ROAD, SUITE 425, HOUSTON TX 77079
Roderick A. Schultz officer: Chief Accounting Officer 4621 PINERIDGE STREET, HOUSTON TX 77009
Marjorie Anne Hargrave director 999 18TH STREET, SUITE 1925N, DENVER CO 80202
Jason E. Brown officer: President & CEO 1000 LOUISIANA, SUITE 6700, HOUSTON TX 77002
Marran H. Ogilvie director 599 LEXINGTON AVENUE, NEW YORK NY 10022
David Joe officer: VP, Chief Admin. Officer 2500 CITYWEST BLVD., SUITE 1300, HOUSTON TX 77042
Jvl Advisors, L.l.c. 10 percent owner 10,000 MEMORIAL DRIVE, SUITE 550, HOUSTON TX 77024
Randall D Keys officer: President, CFO & Treasurer 3 HICKORY SHADOWS DR, HOUSTON TX 77055
Peninsula Capital Management Inc director 235 PINE STREET, SUITE 1600, SAN FRANCISCO CA 94104
Kelly William Loyd director 10000 MEMORIAL DRIVE, SUITE 550, HOUSTON TX 77024
William Dozier director 3000 SAGE #1312, HOUSTON TX 77056
Gene G Stoever director 5415 GRAYSTONE LANE, HOUSTON TX 77069