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ALK (Alaska Air Group) Beneish M-Score : -2.22 (As of Mar. 15, 2025)


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What is Alaska Air Group Beneish M-Score?

The zones of discrimination for M-Score is as such:

An M-Score of equal or less than -1.78 suggests that the company is unlikely to be a manipulator.
An M-Score of greater than -1.78 signals that the company is likely to be a manipulator.

Good Sign:

Beneish M-Score -2.22 no higher than -1.78, which implies that the company is unlikely to be a manipulator.

The historical rank and industry rank for Alaska Air Group's Beneish M-Score or its related term are showing as below:

ALK' s Beneish M-Score Range Over the Past 10 Years
Min: -3.44   Med: -2.42   Max: 6.25
Current: -2.22

During the past 13 years, the highest Beneish M-Score of Alaska Air Group was 6.25. The lowest was -3.44. And the median was -2.42.


Alaska Air Group Beneish M-Score Historical Data

The historical data trend for Alaska Air Group's Beneish M-Score can be seen below:

* For Operating Data section: All numbers are indicated by the unit behind each term and all currency related amount are in USD.
* For other sections: All numbers are in millions except for per share data, ratio, and percentage. All currency related amount are indicated in the company's associated stock exchange currency.

* Premium members only.

Alaska Air Group Beneish M-Score Chart

Alaska Air Group Annual Data
Trend Dec15 Dec16 Dec17 Dec18 Dec19 Dec20 Dec21 Dec22 Dec23 Dec24
Beneish M-Score
Get a 7-Day Free Trial Premium Member Only Premium Member Only -2.26 -3.12 -2.73 -2.36 -2.22

Alaska Air Group Quarterly Data
Mar20 Jun20 Sep20 Dec20 Mar21 Jun21 Sep21 Dec21 Mar22 Jun22 Sep22 Dec22 Mar23 Jun23 Sep23 Dec23 Mar24 Jun24 Sep24 Dec24
Beneish M-Score Get a 7-Day Free Trial Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only -2.36 -2.57 -2.57 -2.02 -2.22

Competitive Comparison of Alaska Air Group's Beneish M-Score

For the Airlines subindustry, Alaska Air Group's Beneish M-Score, along with its competitors' market caps and Beneish M-Score data, can be viewed below:

* Competitive companies are chosen from companies within the same industry, with headquarter located in same country, with closest market capitalization; x-axis shows the market cap, and y-axis shows the term value; the bigger the dot, the larger the market cap. Note that "N/A" values will not show up in the chart.


Alaska Air Group's Beneish M-Score Distribution in the Transportation Industry

For the Transportation industry and Industrials sector, Alaska Air Group's Beneish M-Score distribution charts can be found below:

* The bar in red indicates where Alaska Air Group's Beneish M-Score falls into.



Alaska Air Group Beneish M-Score Calculation

The M-score was created by Professor Messod Beneish. Instead of measuring the bankruptcy risk (Altman Z-Score) or business trend (Piotroski F-Score), M-score can be used to detect the risk of earnings manipulation. This is the original research paper on M-score.

The M-Score Variables:

The M-score of Alaska Air Group for today is based on a combination of the following eight different indices:

M=-4.84+0.92 * DSRI+0.528 * GMI+0.404 * AQI+0.892 * SGI+0.115 * DEPI
=-4.84+0.92 * 1.2944+0.528 * 0.9932+0.404 * 1.2498+0.892 * 1.1256+0.115 * 0.976
-0.172 * SGAI+4.679 * TATA-0.327 * LVGI
-0.172 * 1.0233+4.679 * -0.037434-0.327 * 1.1309
=-2.22

* For Operating Data section: All numbers are indicated by the unit behind each term and all currency related amount are in USD.
* For other sections: All numbers are in millions except for per share data, ratio, and percentage. All currency related amount are indicated in the company's associated stock exchange currency.

This Year (Dec24) TTM:Last Year (Dec23) TTM:
Total Receivables was $558 Mil.
Revenue was 3534 + 3072 + 2897 + 2232 = $11,735 Mil.
Gross Profit was 531 + 699 + 738 + 150 = $2,118 Mil.
Total Current Assets was $3,760 Mil.
Total Assets was $19,768 Mil.
Property, Plant and Equipment(Net PPE) was $12,077 Mil.
Depreciation, Depletion and Amortization(DDA) was $583 Mil.
Selling, General, & Admin. Expense(SGA) was $349 Mil.
Total Current Liabilities was $6,145 Mil.
Long-Term Debt & Capital Lease Obligation was $5,736 Mil.
Net Income was 71 + 236 + 220 + -132 = $395 Mil.
Non Operating Income was -71 + -78 + -146 + -34 = $-329 Mil.
Cash Flow from Operations was 274 + 318 + 580 + 292 = $1,464 Mil.
Total Receivables was $383 Mil.
Revenue was 2553 + 2839 + 2838 + 2196 = $10,426 Mil.
Gross Profit was 326 + 636 + 786 + 121 = $1,869 Mil.
Total Current Assets was $2,705 Mil.
Total Assets was $14,613 Mil.
Property, Plant and Equipment(Net PPE) was $9,583 Mil.
Depreciation, Depletion and Amortization(DDA) was $451 Mil.
Selling, General, & Admin. Expense(SGA) was $303 Mil.
Total Current Liabilities was $4,459 Mil.
Long-Term Debt & Capital Lease Obligation was $3,307 Mil.




1. DSRI = Days Sales in Receivables Index

Measured as the ratio of Revenue in Total Receivables in year t to year t-1.

A large increase in DSR could be indicative of revenue inflation.

DSRI=(Receivables_t / Revenue_t) / (Receivables_t-1 / Revenue_t-1)
=(558 / 11735) / (383 / 10426)
=0.04755 / 0.036735
=1.2944

2. GMI = Gross Margin Index

Measured as the ratio of gross margin in year t-1 to gross margin in year t.

Gross margin has deteriorated when this index is above 1. A firm with poorer prospects is more likely to manipulate earnings.

GMI=GrossMargin_t-1 / GrossMargin_t
=(GrossProfit_t-1 / Revenue_t-1) / (GrossProfit_t / Revenue_t)
=(1869 / 10426) / (2118 / 11735)
=0.179263 / 0.180486
=0.9932

3. AQI = Asset Quality Index

AQI is the ratio of asset quality in year t to year t-1.

Asset quality is measured as the ratio of non-current assets other than Property, Plant and Equipment to Total Assets.

AQI=(1 - (CurrentAssets_t + PPE_t) / TotalAssets_t) / (1 - (CurrentAssets_t-1 + PPE_t-1) / TotalAssets_t-1)
=(1 - (3760 + 12077) / 19768) / (1 - (2705 + 9583) / 14613)
=0.198857 / 0.159105
=1.2498

4. SGI = Sales Growth Index

Ratio of Revenue in year t to sales in year t-1.

Sales growth is not itself a measure of manipulation. However, growth companies are likely to find themselves under pressure to manipulate in order to keep up appearances.

SGI=Sales_t / Sales_t-1
=Revenue_t / Revenue_t-1
=11735 / 10426
=1.1256

5. DEPI = Depreciation Index

Measured as the ratio of the rate of Depreciation, Depletion and Amortization in year t-1 to the corresponding rate in year t.

DEPI greater than 1 indicates that assets are being depreciated at a slower rate. This suggests that the firm might be revising useful asset life assumptions upwards, or adopting a new method that is income friendly.

DEPI=(Depreciation_t-1 / (Depreciaton_t-1 + PPE_t-1)) / (Depreciation_t / (Depreciaton_t + PPE_t))
=(451 / (451 + 9583)) / (583 / (583 + 12077))
=0.044947 / 0.046051
=0.976

Note: If the Depreciation, Depletion and Amortization data is not available, we assume that the depreciation rate is constant and set the Depreciation Index to 1.

6. SGAI = Sales, General and Administrative expenses Index

The ratio of Selling, General, & Admin. Expense(SGA) to Sales in year t relative to year t-1.

SGA expenses index > 1 means that the company is becoming less efficient in generate sales.

SGAI=(SGA_t / Sales_t) / (SGA_t-1 /Sales_t-1)
=(349 / 11735) / (303 / 10426)
=0.02974 / 0.029062
=1.0233

7. LVGI = Leverage Index

The ratio of total debt to Total Assets in year t relative to yeat t-1.

An LVGI > 1 indicates an increase in leverage

LVGI=((LTD_t + CurrentLiabilities_t) / TotalAssets_t) / ((LTD_t-1 + CurrentLiabilities_t-1) / TotalAssets_t-1)
=((5736 + 6145) / 19768) / ((3307 + 4459) / 14613)
=0.601022 / 0.531445
=1.1309

8. TATA = Total Accruals to Total Assets

Total accruals calculated as the change in working capital accounts other than cash less depreciation.

TATA=(IncomefromContinuingOperations_t - CashFlowsfromOperations_t) / TotalAssets_t
=(NetIncome_t - NonOperatingIncome_t - CashFlowsfromOperations_t) / TotalAssets_t
=(395 - -329 - 1464) / 19768
=-0.037434

An M-Score of equal or less than -1.78 suggests that the company is unlikely to be a manipulator. An M-Score of greater than -1.78 signals that the company is likely to be a manipulator.

Alaska Air Group has a M-score of -2.22 suggests that the company is unlikely to be a manipulator.


Alaska Air Group Beneish M-Score Related Terms

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Alaska Air Group Business Description

Traded in Other Exchanges
Address
19300 International Boulevard, Seattle, WA, USA, 98188
Alaska Air Group Inc operates two airlines, Alaska and Horizon in three operating segments. The Alaska Airlines segment includes scheduled air transportation on Alaska's Boeing and Airbus jet aircraft for passengers and cargo throughout the U.S., and in parts of Mexico, and Costa Rica. The Regional segment includes Horizon's and other third-party carriers' scheduled air transportation for passengers across a shorter distance network within the U.S. and Canada under capacity purchase agreements (CPA). The Hawaiian Airlines segment includes scheduled air transportation on Hawaiian's Boeing and Airbus aircraft for passengers and cargo. It earns revenues from Passenger tickets, including ticket breakage and net of taxes and fees, Passenger ancillary and Mileage Plan passenger revenue.
Executives
Von Muehlen Constance E officer: EVP AND COO C/O ALASKA AIR GROUP, INC., 19300 INTERNATIONAL BLVD, SEATTLE WA 98188
Shane R Tackett officer: SR VP REV/E-COMMERCE C/O ALASKA AIRLINES, INC., 19300 INTERNATIONAL BLVD, SEATTLE WA 98188
Andrea L Schneider officer: VP PEOPLE ALASKA AIR GROUP, INC., 19300 INTERNATIONAL BLVD, SEATTLE WA 98188
Kyle B Levine officer: VP LEGAL ALASKA AIR GROUP, INC., 19300 INTERNATIONAL BLVD, SEATTLE WA 98188
Andrew R Harrison officer: VP/PLNG & REV MGMT C/O ALASKA AIR GROUP, INC., 19300 INTERNATIONAL BLVD, SEATTLE WA 98188
Joseph A Sprague officer: VP/MARKETING C/O ALASKA AIRLINES, INC., 19300 INTERNATIONAL BLVD, SEATTLE WA 98188
Benito Minicucci officer: EXEC VP/OPS AND COO C/O ALASKA AIRLINES, INC., 19300 INTERNATIONAL BLVD SO, SEATTLE WA 98188
Emily Halverson officer: PRINCIPAL ACCOUNTING OFFICER C/O ALASKA AIR GROUP, INC., 19300 INTERNATIONAL BLVD, SEATTLE WA 98188
Jason M Berry officer: President, Horizon Air C/O ALASKA AIR GROUP, INC., 19300 INTERNATIONAL BLVD., SEATTLE WA 98188
J Kenneth Thompson director ALASKA AIR GROUP, 19300 PACIFIC HIGHWAY SOUTH, SEATTLE WA 98188
Dhiren R. Fonseca director C/O NORTHWEST RETAIL PARTNERS, LTD., 224 WESTLAKE AVE N, SUITE 500, SEATTLE WA 98109
Adrienne Rochelle Lofton director C/O ALASKA AIR GROUP, INC., 19300 INTERNATIONAL BLVD, SEATTLE WA 98188
Daniel Kevin Elwell director C/O ALASKA AIR GROUP, INC., 19300 INTERNATIONAL BLVD, SEATTLE WA 98188
Knight Jessie J Jr director 4329 FOX BROOK LANE, CHARLOTTE NC 28211
Susan J Li director ALASKA AIR GROUP, INC., 19300 INTERNATIONAL BLVD, SEATTLE WA 98188