ALK (Alaska Air Group) Beneish M-Score: -2.45 (As of Jun. 24, 2026)


ALK Alaska Air Group Inc ALK
81 GF Score
Price $51.68
GF Value $63.00
Valuation Modestly Undervalued
! 7 Warning Signs
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What is Alaska Air Group Beneish M-Score?

Alaska Air Group ALK +5.01% 81 Beneish M-Score is -2.45 as of Jun. 24, 2026. GuruFocus rates ALK with a GF Score™ of 81/100 and a GF Value™ of $63.00 (Modestly Undervalued). The stock has 7 warning signs investors should review. Among 966 Transportation companies, Alaska Air Group ranks worse than 61.59% on this metric.

The zones of discrimination for M-Score is as such:

An M-Score of equal or less than -1.78 suggests that the company is unlikely to be a manipulator.
An M-Score of greater than -1.78 signals that the company is likely to be a manipulator.

Good Sign:

Beneish M-Score -2.45 no higher than -1.78, which implies that the company is unlikely to be a manipulator.

The historical rank and industry rank for Alaska Air Group's Beneish M-Score or its related term are showing as below:

ALK' s Beneish M-Score Range Over the Past 10 Years
Min: -3.12   Med: -2.46   Max: 8.17
Current: -2.45

During the past 13 years, the highest Beneish M-Score of Alaska Air Group was 8.17. The lowest was -3.12. And the median was -2.46.


Alaska Air Group Beneish M-Score Historical Data

* Premium members only.

The historical data trend for Alaska Air Group's Beneish M-Score can be seen below:

* For Operating Data section: All numbers are indicated by the unit behind each term and all currency related amount are in USD.
* For other sections: All numbers are in millions except for per share data, ratio, and percentage. All currency related amount are indicated in the company's associated stock exchange currency.

Alaska Air Group Beneish M-Score Chart

Alaska Air Group Annual Data
Trend Dec16 Dec17 Dec18 Dec19 Dec20 Dec21 Dec22 Dec23 Dec24 Dec25
Beneish M-Score
Get a 7-Day Free Trial Premium Member Only Premium Member Only -3.12 -2.73 -2.36 -2.22 -2.53

Alaska Air Group Quarterly Data
Jun21 Sep21 Dec21 Mar22 Jun22 Sep22 Dec22 Mar23 Jun23 Sep23 Dec23 Mar24 Jun24 Sep24 Dec24 Mar25 Jun25 Sep25 Dec25 Mar26
Beneish M-Score Get a 7-Day Free Trial Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only -2.21 -1.79 -2.46 -2.53 -2.45

ALK vs CPA, SKYW, ALGT: Beneish M-Score Comparison

For the Airlines subindustry, Alaska Air Group's Beneish M-Score, along with its competitors' market caps and Beneish M-Score data, can be viewed below:

* Competitive companies are chosen from companies within the same industry, with headquarter located in same country, with closest market capitalization; x-axis shows the market cap, and y-axis shows the term value; the bigger the dot, the larger the market cap. Note that "N/A" values will not show up in the chart.


Alaska Air Group Beneish M-Score vs Transportation Industry

For the Transportation industry and Industrials sector, Alaska Air Group's Beneish M-Score distribution charts can be found below:

* The bar in red indicates where Alaska Air Group's Beneish M-Score falls into.


ALK
81GF Score
Alaska Air Group Inc ALK
Beneish M-Score is just one metric. See GF Score™, valuation, warning signs, and more.
View Full Analysis

Alaska Air Group Beneish M-Score Calculation

The M-score was created by Professor Messod Beneish. Instead of measuring the bankruptcy risk (Altman Z-Score) or business trend (Piotroski F-Score), M-score can be used to detect the risk of earnings manipulation. This is the original research paper on M-score.

The M-Score Variables:

The M-score of Alaska Air Group for today is based on a combination of the following eight different indices:

M=-4.84+0.92 * DSRI+0.528 * GMI+0.404 * AQI+0.892 * SGI+0.115 * DEPI
=-4.84+0.92 * 0.9717+0.528 * 1.3185+0.404 * 0.9886+0.892 * 1.1394+0.115 * 0.8899
-0.172 * SGAI+4.679 * TATA-0.327 * LVGI
-0.172 * 0.9579+4.679 * -0.046556-0.327 * 1.0385
=-2.45

* For Operating Data section: All numbers are indicated by the unit behind each term and all currency related amount are in USD.
* For other sections: All numbers are in millions except for per share data, ratio, and percentage. All currency related amount are indicated in the company's associated stock exchange currency.

This Year (Mar26) TTM:Last Year (Mar25) TTM:
Total Receivables was $630 Mil.
Revenue was 3300 + 3632 + 3766 + 3704 = $14,402 Mil.
Gross Profit was 158 + 503 + 575 + 685 = $1,921 Mil.
Total Current Assets was $3,017 Mil.
Total Assets was $20,298 Mil.
Property, Plant and Equipment(Net PPE) was $13,315 Mil.
Depreciation, Depletion and Amortization(DDA) was $805 Mil.
Selling, General, & Admin. Expense(SGA) was $406 Mil.
Total Current Liabilities was $7,056 Mil.
Long-Term Debt & Capital Lease Obligation was $5,958 Mil.
Net Income was -193 + 21 + 73 + 172 = $73 Mil.
Non Operating Income was -26 + -45 + -62 + -60 = $-193 Mil.
Cash Flow from Operations was 421 + 185 + 229 + 376 = $1,211 Mil.
Total Receivables was $569 Mil.
Revenue was 3137 + 3534 + 3072 + 2897 = $12,640 Mil.
Gross Profit was 255 + 531 + 699 + 738 = $2,223 Mil.
Total Current Assets was $3,721 Mil.
Total Assets was $19,818 Mil.
Property, Plant and Equipment(Net PPE) was $12,180 Mil.
Depreciation, Depletion and Amortization(DDA) was $651 Mil.
Selling, General, & Admin. Expense(SGA) was $372 Mil.
Total Current Liabilities was $6,700 Mil.
Long-Term Debt & Capital Lease Obligation was $5,535 Mil.




1. DSRI = Days Sales in Receivables Index

Measured as the ratio of Revenue in Total Receivables in year t to year t-1.

A large increase in DSR could be indicative of revenue inflation.

DSRI=(Receivables_t / Revenue_t) / (Receivables_t-1 / Revenue_t-1)
=(630 / 14402) / (569 / 12640)
=0.043744 / 0.045016
=0.9717

2. GMI = Gross Margin Index

Measured as the ratio of gross margin in year t-1 to gross margin in year t.

Gross margin has deteriorated when this index is above 1. A firm with poorer prospects is more likely to manipulate earnings.

GMI=GrossMargin_t-1 / GrossMargin_t
=(GrossProfit_t-1 / Revenue_t-1) / (GrossProfit_t / Revenue_t)
=(2223 / 12640) / (1921 / 14402)
=0.17587 / 0.133384
=1.3185

3. AQI = Asset Quality Index

AQI is the ratio of asset quality in year t to year t-1.

Asset quality is measured as the ratio of non-current assets other than Property, Plant and Equipment to Total Assets.

AQI=(1 - (CurrentAssets_t + PPE_t) / TotalAssets_t) / (1 - (CurrentAssets_t-1 + PPE_t-1) / TotalAssets_t-1)
=(1 - (3017 + 13315) / 20298) / (1 - (3721 + 12180) / 19818)
=0.195389 / 0.197649
=0.9886

4. SGI = Sales Growth Index

Ratio of Revenue in year t to sales in year t-1.

Sales growth is not itself a measure of manipulation. However, growth companies are likely to find themselves under pressure to manipulate in order to keep up appearances.

SGI=Sales_t / Sales_t-1
=Revenue_t / Revenue_t-1
=14402 / 12640
=1.1394

5. DEPI = Depreciation Index

Measured as the ratio of the rate of Depreciation, Depletion and Amortization in year t-1 to the corresponding rate in year t.

DEPI greater than 1 indicates that assets are being depreciated at a slower rate. This suggests that the firm might be revising useful asset life assumptions upwards, or adopting a new method that is income friendly.

DEPI=(Depreciation_t-1 / (Depreciaton_t-1 + PPE_t-1)) / (Depreciation_t / (Depreciaton_t + PPE_t))
=(651 / (651 + 12180)) / (805 / (805 + 13315))
=0.050736 / 0.057011
=0.8899

Note: If the Depreciation, Depletion and Amortization data is not available, we assume that the depreciation rate is constant and set the Depreciation Index to 1.

6. SGAI = Sales, General and Administrative expenses Index

The ratio of Selling, General, & Admin. Expense(SGA) to Sales in year t relative to year t-1.

SGA expenses index > 1 means that the company is becoming less efficient in generate sales.

SGAI=(SGA_t / Sales_t) / (SGA_t-1 /Sales_t-1)
=(406 / 14402) / (372 / 12640)
=0.028191 / 0.02943
=0.9579

7. LVGI = Leverage Index

The ratio of total debt to Total Assets in year t relative to yeat t-1.

An LVGI > 1 indicates an increase in leverage

LVGI=((LTD_t + CurrentLiabilities_t) / TotalAssets_t) / ((LTD_t-1 + CurrentLiabilities_t-1) / TotalAssets_t-1)
=((5958 + 7056) / 20298) / ((5535 + 6700) / 19818)
=0.641147 / 0.617368
=1.0385

8. TATA = Total Accruals to Total Assets

Total accruals calculated as the change in working capital accounts other than cash less depreciation.

TATA=(IncomefromContinuingOperations_t - CashFlowsfromOperations_t) / TotalAssets_t
=(NetIncome_t - NonOperatingIncome_t - CashFlowsfromOperations_t) / TotalAssets_t
=(73 - -193 - 1211) / 20298
=-0.046556

An M-Score of equal or less than -1.78 suggests that the company is unlikely to be a manipulator. An M-Score of greater than -1.78 signals that the company is likely to be a manipulator.

Alaska Air Group has a M-score of -2.45 suggests that the company is unlikely to be a manipulator.

Frequently Asked Questions Learn more about Beneish M-Score →
What does a Beneish M-Score of -2.45 mean?
Alaska Air Group (ALK) has a Beneish M-Score of -2.45 as of Jun. 24, 2026. The Beneish M-score measures the likelihood of earnings manipulation. View historical data on Alaska Air Group and its competitors. According to the industry distribution chart, Alaska Air Group ranks #595 out of 966 companies in the Transportation industry, placing it in the top 61.6%.
Is Alaska Air Group's Beneish M-Score too high?
Alaska Air Group's current Beneish M-Score is -2.45. Based on the distribution chart, Alaska Air Group ranks #595 out of 966 companies in the Transportation industry, which is below the industry midpoint. Overall, Alaska Air Group has a GF Score™ of 81/100 and is considered Modestly Undervalued, reflecting its overall financial health beyond just this single metric.
How does Alaska Air Group's Beneish M-Score compare to CPA and SKYW?
According to the Transportation industry distribution chart, Alaska Air Group ranks #595 out of 966 companies for Beneish M-Score. This places Alaska Air Group in the lower half of its industry. See the competitive comparison table and distribution chart on this page for a detailed peer-by-peer breakdown.
What is a good Beneish M-Score for a Transportation company?
A good Beneish M-Score depends on the Transportation industry context. However, Beneish M-Score should not be evaluated in isolation — investors should consider it alongside profitability, growth, and financial strength metrics. Use the industry distribution chart on this page to see where any company falls relative to its peers.
What does a high Beneish M-Score mean?
A high Beneish M-Score can signal that a stock is expensive relative to its fundamentals. The Beneish M-score measures the likelihood of earnings manipulation. View historical data on Alaska Air Group and its competitors. Alaska Air Group's current Beneish M-Score is -2.45. However, context matters — high-growth companies often justify higher valuations. Always evaluate alongside other metrics like GF Score™ and GF Value™.
Is Alaska Air Group stock overvalued right now?
Based on GuruFocus' analysis, Alaska Air Group (ALK) is currently considered Modestly Undervalued. The stock's GF Value™ is $63.00, compared to a current price of $51.68 — trading 18% below its estimated fair value. The current Beneish M-Score is -2.45. Alaska Air Group's overall GF Score™ is 81/100 with 7 warning signs to review. Investors should evaluate multiple metrics — including profitability, growth, and financial strength — before making a decision.
How is Beneish M-Score calculated?
Beneish M-Score is calculated from a company's financial statements. For Alaska Air Group (ALK), the current Beneish M-Score is -2.45 as of Jun. 24, 2026. GuruFocus calculates this using data sourced from SEC filings and annual reports. See the calculation section and 30-year financial data on this page for the full breakdown.

Is Alaska Air Group (ALK) Overvalued in 2026?

Based on GuruFocus' analysis, Alaska Air Group stock appears to be undervalued. The current stock price of $51.68 is trading 18% below its estimated GF Value™ of $63.00. GuruFocus considers Alaska Air Group to be Modestly Undervalued.

Key valuation signals for ALK:

  • Beneish M-Score: -2.45
  • GF Value™: $63.00 vs. price of $51.68 (18% below fair value)
  • GF Score™: 81/100 with 7 warning signs

No single metric tells the full story. See the ALK stock analysis page for a complete view including 30-year financials, guru trades, and insider activity.


Alaska Air Group Business Description

Address 19300 International Boulevard, Seattle, WA, USA, 98188
Alaska Air Group Inc operates two airlines, Alaska and Horizon, in three operating segments. The Alaska Airlines segment includes scheduled air transportation on Alaska's Boeing and Airbus jet aircraft for passengers and cargo throughout the U.S., and in parts of Mexico and Costa Rica. The Regional segment includes Horizon's and other third-party carriers' scheduled air transportation for passengers across a shorter distance network within the U.S. and Canada under capacity purchase agreements. The Hawaiian Airlines segment includes scheduled air transportation on Hawaiian's Boeing and Airbus aircraft for passengers and cargo. It earns revenues from Passenger tickets, including ticket breakage and net of taxes and fees, Passenger ancillary, and Mileage Plan passenger revenue.
81GF Score

Get the complete analysis for ALK

Beneish M-Score is just one metric. See GF Value™, 30-year financials, guru trades, warning signs, and more.

$51.68
Price
$63.00
GF Value