Transurban Group (ASX:TCL) Beneish M-Score: -3.08 (As of Jun. 26, 2026)


ASX:TCL Transurban Group ASX:TCL
75 GF Score
Price A$15.39
GF Value A$13.47
Valuation Modestly Overvalued
! 11 Warning Signs
View Full Analysis

What is Transurban Group Beneish M-Score?

Transurban Group ASX:TCL +1.45% 75 Beneish M-Score is -3.08 as of Jun. 26, 2026. GuruFocus rates ASX:TCL with a GF Score™ of 75/100 and a GF Value™ of A$13.47 (Modestly Overvalued). The stock has 11 warning signs investors should review. Among 1,704 Construction companies, Transurban Group ranks better than 84.51% on this metric.

The zones of discrimination for M-Score is as such:

An M-Score of equal or less than -1.78 suggests that the company is unlikely to be a manipulator.
An M-Score of greater than -1.78 signals that the company is likely to be a manipulator.

Good Sign:

Beneish M-Score -3.08 no higher than -1.78, which implies that the company is unlikely to be a manipulator.

The historical rank and industry rank for Transurban Group's Beneish M-Score or its related term are showing as below:

ASX:TCL' s Beneish M-Score Range Over the Past 10 Years
Min: -3.08   Med: -2.42   Max: -0.71
Current: -3.08

During the past 13 years, the highest Beneish M-Score of Transurban Group was -0.71. The lowest was -3.08. And the median was -2.42.


Transurban Group Beneish M-Score Historical Data

* Premium members only.

The historical data trend for Transurban Group's Beneish M-Score can be seen below:

* For Operating Data section: All numbers are indicated by the unit behind each term and all currency related amount are in USD.
* For other sections: All numbers are in millions except for per share data, ratio, and percentage. All currency related amount are indicated in the company's associated stock exchange currency.

Transurban Group Beneish M-Score Chart

Transurban Group Annual Data
Trend Jun16 Jun17 Jun18 Jun19 Jun20 Jun21 Jun22 Jun23 Jun24 Jun25
Beneish M-Score
Get a 7-Day Free Trial Premium Member Only Premium Member Only -1.74 -2.34 -2.45 -2.16 -3.08

Transurban Group Semi-Annual Data
Jun16 Dec16 Jun17 Dec17 Jun18 Dec18 Jun19 Dec19 Jun20 Dec20 Jun21 Dec21 Jun22 Dec22 Jun23 Dec23 Jun24 Dec24 Jun25 Dec25
Beneish M-Score Get a 7-Day Free Trial Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only 0.00 -2.16 0.00 -3.08 0.00

Transurban Group Beneish M-Score Competitor Comparison

For the Infrastructure Operations subindustry, Transurban Group's Beneish M-Score, along with its competitors' market caps and Beneish M-Score data, can be viewed below:

* Competitive companies are chosen from companies within the same industry, with headquarter located in same country, with closest market capitalization; x-axis shows the market cap, and y-axis shows the term value; the bigger the dot, the larger the market cap. Note that "N/A" values will not show up in the chart.


Transurban Group Beneish M-Score vs Construction Industry

For the Construction industry and Industrials sector, Transurban Group's Beneish M-Score distribution charts can be found below:

* The bar in red indicates where Transurban Group's Beneish M-Score falls into.


ASX:TCL
75GF Score
Transurban Group ASX:TCL
Beneish M-Score is just one metric. See GF Score™, valuation, warning signs, and more.
View Full Analysis

Transurban Group Beneish M-Score Calculation

The M-score was created by Professor Messod Beneish. Instead of measuring the bankruptcy risk (Altman Z-Score) or business trend (Piotroski F-Score), M-score can be used to detect the risk of earnings manipulation. This is the original research paper on M-score.

The M-Score Variables:

The M-score of Transurban Group for today is based on a combination of the following eight different indices:

M=-4.84+0.92 * DSRI+0.528 * GMI+0.404 * AQI+0.892 * SGI+0.115 * DEPI
=-4.84+0.92 * 0.698+0.528 * 0.9756+0.404 * 1.0114+0.892 * 0.9153+0.115 * 0.9838
-0.172 * SGAI+4.679 * TATA-0.327 * LVGI
-0.172 * 1.169+4.679 * -0.038041-0.327 * 1.0891
=-3.08

* For Operating Data section: All numbers are indicated by the unit behind each term and all currency related amount are in USD.
* For other sections: All numbers are in millions except for per share data, ratio, and percentage. All currency related amount are indicated in the company's associated stock exchange currency.

This Year (Jun25) TTM:Last Year (Jun24) TTM:
Total Receivables was A$375 Mil.
Revenue was A$3,770 Mil.
Gross Profit was A$2,565 Mil.
Total Current Assets was A$2,353 Mil.
Total Assets was A$35,567 Mil.
Property, Plant and Equipment(Net PPE) was A$485 Mil.
Depreciation, Depletion and Amortization(DDA) was A$1,097 Mil.
Selling, General, & Admin. Expense(SGA) was A$413 Mil.
Total Current Liabilities was A$3,969 Mil.
Long-Term Debt & Capital Lease Obligation was A$19,289 Mil.
Net Income was A$133 Mil.
Gross Profit was A$-29 Mil.
Cash Flow from Operations was A$1,515 Mil.
Total Receivables was A$587 Mil.
Revenue was A$4,119 Mil.
Gross Profit was A$2,734 Mil.
Total Current Assets was A$2,810 Mil.
Total Assets was A$36,694 Mil.
Property, Plant and Equipment(Net PPE) was A$498 Mil.
Depreciation, Depletion and Amortization(DDA) was A$1,069 Mil.
Selling, General, & Admin. Expense(SGA) was A$386 Mil.
Total Current Liabilities was A$3,700 Mil.
Long-Term Debt & Capital Lease Obligation was A$18,332 Mil.




1. DSRI = Days Sales in Receivables Index

Measured as the ratio of Revenue in Total Receivables in year t to year t-1.

A large increase in DSR could be indicative of revenue inflation.

DSRI=(Receivables_t / Revenue_t) / (Receivables_t-1 / Revenue_t-1)
=(375 / 3770) / (587 / 4119)
=0.099469 / 0.14251
=0.698

2. GMI = Gross Margin Index

Measured as the ratio of gross margin in year t-1 to gross margin in year t.

Gross margin has deteriorated when this index is above 1. A firm with poorer prospects is more likely to manipulate earnings.

GMI=GrossMargin_t-1 / GrossMargin_t
=(GrossProfit_t-1 / Revenue_t-1) / (GrossProfit_t / Revenue_t)
=(2734 / 4119) / (2565 / 3770)
=0.663753 / 0.680371
=0.9756

3. AQI = Asset Quality Index

AQI is the ratio of asset quality in year t to year t-1.

Asset quality is measured as the ratio of non-current assets other than Property, Plant and Equipment to Total Assets.

AQI=(1 - (CurrentAssets_t + PPE_t) / TotalAssets_t) / (1 - (CurrentAssets_t-1 + PPE_t-1) / TotalAssets_t-1)
=(1 - (2353 + 485) / 35567) / (1 - (2810 + 498) / 36694)
=0.920207 / 0.909849
=1.0114

4. SGI = Sales Growth Index

Ratio of Revenue in year t to sales in year t-1.

Sales growth is not itself a measure of manipulation. However, growth companies are likely to find themselves under pressure to manipulate in order to keep up appearances.

SGI=Sales_t / Sales_t-1
=Revenue_t / Revenue_t-1
=3770 / 4119
=0.9153

5. DEPI = Depreciation Index

Measured as the ratio of the rate of Depreciation, Depletion and Amortization in year t-1 to the corresponding rate in year t.

DEPI greater than 1 indicates that assets are being depreciated at a slower rate. This suggests that the firm might be revising useful asset life assumptions upwards, or adopting a new method that is income friendly.

DEPI=(Depreciation_t-1 / (Depreciaton_t-1 + PPE_t-1)) / (Depreciation_t / (Depreciaton_t + PPE_t))
=(1069 / (1069 + 498)) / (1097 / (1097 + 485))
=0.682195 / 0.693426
=0.9838

Note: If the Depreciation, Depletion and Amortization data is not available, we assume that the depreciation rate is constant and set the Depreciation Index to 1.

6. SGAI = Sales, General and Administrative expenses Index

The ratio of Selling, General, & Admin. Expense(SGA) to Sales in year t relative to year t-1.

SGA expenses index > 1 means that the company is becoming less efficient in generate sales.

SGAI=(SGA_t / Sales_t) / (SGA_t-1 /Sales_t-1)
=(413 / 3770) / (386 / 4119)
=0.109549 / 0.093712
=1.169

7. LVGI = Leverage Index

The ratio of total debt to Total Assets in year t relative to yeat t-1.

An LVGI > 1 indicates an increase in leverage

LVGI=((LTD_t + CurrentLiabilities_t) / TotalAssets_t) / ((LTD_t-1 + CurrentLiabilities_t-1) / TotalAssets_t-1)
=((19289 + 3969) / 35567) / ((18332 + 3700) / 36694)
=0.653921 / 0.600425
=1.0891

8. TATA = Total Accruals to Total Assets

Total accruals calculated as the change in working capital accounts other than cash less depreciation.

TATA=(IncomefromContinuingOperations_t - CashFlowsfromOperations_t) / TotalAssets_t
=(NetIncome_t - NonOperatingIncome_t - CashFlowsfromOperations_t) / TotalAssets_t
=(133 - -29 - 1515) / 35567
=-0.038041

An M-Score of equal or less than -1.78 suggests that the company is unlikely to be a manipulator. An M-Score of greater than -1.78 signals that the company is likely to be a manipulator.

Transurban Group has a M-score of -3.08 suggests that the company is unlikely to be a manipulator.

Frequently Asked Questions Learn more about Beneish M-Score →
What does a Beneish M-Score of -3.08 mean?
Transurban Group (ASX:TCL) has a Beneish M-Score of -3.08 as of Jun. 26, 2026. The Beneish M-score measures the likelihood of earnings manipulation. View historical data on Transurban Group and its competitors. According to the industry distribution chart, Transurban Group ranks #264 out of 1704 companies in the Construction industry, placing it in the top 15.5%.
Is Transurban Group's Beneish M-Score too high?
Transurban Group's current Beneish M-Score is -3.08. Based on the distribution chart, Transurban Group ranks #264 out of 1704 companies in the Construction industry, which is in the top quartile — a strong position relative to peers. Overall, Transurban Group has a GF Score™ of 75/100 and is considered Modestly Overvalued, reflecting its overall financial health beyond just this single metric.
How does Transurban Group's Beneish M-Score compare to competitors?
According to the Construction industry distribution chart, Transurban Group ranks #264 out of 1704 companies for Beneish M-Score. This places Transurban Group in the top 16% of its industry — outperforming the majority of peers. See the competitive comparison table and distribution chart on this page for a detailed peer-by-peer breakdown.
What is a good Beneish M-Score for a Construction company?
A good Beneish M-Score depends on the Construction industry context. However, Beneish M-Score should not be evaluated in isolation — investors should consider it alongside profitability, growth, and financial strength metrics. Use the industry distribution chart on this page to see where any company falls relative to its peers.
What does a high Beneish M-Score mean?
A high Beneish M-Score can signal that a stock is expensive relative to its fundamentals. The Beneish M-score measures the likelihood of earnings manipulation. View historical data on Transurban Group and its competitors. Transurban Group's current Beneish M-Score is -3.08. However, context matters — high-growth companies often justify higher valuations. Always evaluate alongside other metrics like GF Score™ and GF Value™.
Is Transurban Group stock overvalued right now?
Based on GuruFocus' analysis, Transurban Group (ASX:TCL) is currently considered Modestly Overvalued. The stock's GF Value™ is A$13.47, compared to a current price of A$15.39 — trading 14.3% above its estimated fair value. The current Beneish M-Score is -3.08. Transurban Group's overall GF Score™ is 75/100 with 11 warning signs to review. Investors should evaluate multiple metrics — including profitability, growth, and financial strength — before making a decision.
How is Beneish M-Score calculated?
Beneish M-Score is calculated from a company's financial statements. For Transurban Group (ASX:TCL), the current Beneish M-Score is -3.08 as of Jun. 26, 2026. GuruFocus calculates this using data sourced from SEC filings and annual reports. See the calculation section and 30-year financial data on this page for the full breakdown.

Is Transurban Group (ASX:TCL) Overvalued in 2026?

Based on GuruFocus' analysis, Transurban Group stock appears to be overvalued. The current stock price of A$15.39 is trading 14.3% above its estimated GF Value™ of A$13.47. GuruFocus considers Transurban Group to be Modestly Overvalued.

Key valuation signals for ASX:TCL:

  • Beneish M-Score: -3.08
  • GF Value™: A$13.47 vs. price of A$15.39 (14.3% above fair value)
  • GF Score™: 75/100 with 11 warning signs

No single metric tells the full story. See the ASX:TCL stock analysis page for a complete view including 30-year financials, guru trades, and insider activity.


Transurban Group Business Description

Other Exchanges TRAUF:USATU9:Germany
Address 727 Collins Street, Level 31, Tower 5, Collins Square, Docklands, VIC, AUS, 3008
Transurban Group is an owner/operator of toll roads in Melbourne, Sydney, and Brisbane. It also owns toll roads in Virginia, USA, and Montreal, Canada. The weighted average concession life across the portfolio is about 25 years. Australian assets contribute around 90% of proportional revenue.
75GF Score

Get the complete analysis for ASX:TCL

Beneish M-Score is just one metric. See GF Value™, 30-year financials, guru trades, warning signs, and more.

A$15.39
Price
A$13.47
GF Value