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Transurban GroupASX:TCL -0.07%75 Forward Rate of Return (Yacktman) % is 8.38% as of Jun. 2026, which is 157% above its 10-year median of 3.26. GuruFocus rates ASX:TCL with a GF Score™ of 75/100 and a GF Value™ of A$13.17 (Fairly Valued). The stock has 9 warning signs investors should review. Among 1,300 Construction companies, Transurban Group ranks worse than 50.92% on this metric.
Yacktman defines forward rate of return as the normalized free cash flow yield plus real growth plus inflation. Transurban Group's forward rate of return for was 8.38%.
The historical rank and industry rank for Transurban Group's Forward Rate of Return (Yacktman) % or its related term are showing as below:
ASX:TCL'
s Forward Rate of Return (Yacktman) % Range Over the Past 10 Years
Min: -8.22 Med: 3.26 Max: 10.81
Current: 8.42
During the past 13 years, Transurban Group's highest Forward Rate of Return was 10.81. The lowest was -8.22. And the median was 3.26.
ASX:TCL's Forward Rate of Return (Yacktman) % is ranked worse than 50.92% of 1300
companies
in the Construction industry
Industry Median: 8.865
vs ASX:TCL: 8.42
Unlike the Earnings Yield %, the Forward Rate of Return uses the normalized Free Cash Flow of the past five years, and considers growth. The forward rate of return can be thought of as the return that investors buying the stock today can expect from it in the future.
Transurban Group (ASX:TCL) Forward Rate of Return (Yacktman) % Explanation
Unlike the Earnings Yield, the Forward Rate of Return uses the normalized Free Cash Flow of the past five years, and considers growth. The forward rate of return can be thought of as the return that investors buying the stock today can expect from it in the future.
For the growth part of the Forward Rate of Return calculation, GuruFocus uses the 5-year average growth rate of EBITDA per share as the growth rate, and the growth rate is always capped at 20%. For the Free Cash Flow we use per share data averaged over five years. The reason we use five years is to make it comparable to the growth rate.
Be Aware
In the Forward Rate of Return calculation, the growth rate is added directly to today's free cash flow yield. Therefore the calculation is reliable only if the company can grow at the same rate in the future as it did in the past. Investors should pay close attention to this when researching growth stocks. A more accurate measurement for return is Return on Capital.
Transurban Group Forward Rate of Return (Yacktman) % Related Terms
Transurban Group Forward Rate of Return (Yacktman) % Historical Data
* Premium members only.
The historical data trend for Transurban Group's Forward Rate of Return (Yacktman) % can be seen below:
* For Operating Data section: All numbers are indicated by the unit behind each term and all currency related amount are in USD. * For other sections: All numbers are in millions except for per share data, ratio, and percentage. All currency related amount are indicated in the company's associated stock exchange currency.
Transurban Group Forward Rate of Return (Yacktman) % Chart
Transurban Group Forward Rate of Return (Yacktman) % Competitor Comparison
For the Infrastructure Operations subindustry, Transurban Group's Forward Rate of Return (Yacktman) %, along with its competitors' market caps and Forward Rate of Return (Yacktman) % data, can be viewed below:
* Competitive companies are chosen from companies within the same industry, with headquarter located in same country, with closest market capitalization; x-axis shows the market cap, and y-axis shows the term value; the bigger the dot, the larger the market cap. Note that "N/A" values will not show up in the chart.
Transurban Group Forward Rate of Return (Yacktman) % vs Construction Industry
For the Construction industry and Industrials sector, Transurban Group's Forward Rate of Return (Yacktman) % distribution charts can be found below:
* The bar in red indicates where Transurban Group's Forward Rate of Return (Yacktman) % falls into.
Transurban Group Forward Rate of Return (Yacktman) % Calculation
Forward Rate of Return is a concept that Don Yacktman uses in his investment approach. Yacktman explained the forward rate of return concept in detail in his interview with GuruFocus. Yacktman defines forward rate of return as the normalized free cash flow yield plus real growth plus inflation. He said in the interview (March 2012, when the S&P 500 was at about 1400):
If the business is stable, this calculation is fairly straightforward. For instance, on the S&P 500 we would normalize earnings. We would then calculate what percentage of those earnings are not reinvested in the underlying businesses and are therefore free. Historically, for the S&P 500, this has been just under 50% of earnings. Currently, we expect the S&P to earn about 70 on a normalized basis, a number which is far below reported earnings due to our adjusting for record high profit margins. $70 X ½ / 1400 gives you a normalized free cash flow yield of approximately 2.5%.
The historical real growth rate of the S&P 500 (companies) is about 1.5%. Assuming an inflation rate of 2.5%, the forward rate of return on an investment in the S&P 500 is about 6.5% today (2.5% free cash flow yield plus 1.5% real growth plus 2.5% inflation).
* For Operating Data section: All numbers are indicated by the unit behind each term and all currency related amount are in USD. * For other sections: All numbers are in millions except for per share data, ratio, and percentage. All currency related amount are indicated in the company's associated stock exchange currency.
What does a Forward Rate of Return (Yacktman) % of 8.38% mean?
Transurban Group (ASX:TCL) has a Forward Rate of Return (Yacktman) % of 8.38% as of Jun. 2026. Yacktman's forward rate of return equals the sum of normalized free-cash-flow yield plus earnings growth. View historical data on Transurban Group and its competitors. This is 157% above median its historical median of 3.26. According to the industry distribution chart, Transurban Group ranks #662 out of 1300 companies in the Construction industry, placing it in the top 50.9%.
Is Transurban Group's Forward Rate of Return (Yacktman) % too high?
Transurban Group's current Forward Rate of Return (Yacktman) % of 8.38% is 157% above median its 10-year median of 3.26. The Construction industry median Forward Rate of Return (Yacktman) % is 8.87. Transurban Group's value of 8.38% is 5.5% below this industry median. Based on the distribution chart, Transurban Group ranks #662 out of 1300 companies in the Construction industry, which is below the industry midpoint. Overall, Transurban Group has a GF Score™ of 75/100 and is considered Fairly Valued, reflecting its overall financial health beyond just this single metric.
How does Transurban Group's Forward Rate of Return (Yacktman) % compare to competitors?
According to the Construction industry distribution chart, Transurban Group ranks #662 out of 1300 companies for Forward Rate of Return (Yacktman) %. This places Transurban Group in the lower half of its industry. The industry median Forward Rate of Return (Yacktman) % is 8.87. Transurban Group's value of 8.38% is 5.5% below this benchmark. While the company's 10-year median is 3.26 vs. the industry median of 8.87, Transurban Group has consistently been below the industry average. See the competitive comparison table and distribution chart on this page for a detailed peer-by-peer breakdown.
What is a good Forward Rate of Return (Yacktman) % for a Construction company?
The median Forward Rate of Return (Yacktman) % among Construction companies is 8.87, based on 1,300 companies in the industry. Companies in the top quartile (top 25%) have a Forward Rate of Return (Yacktman) % significantly above this median, while those in the bottom quartile fall well below. However, Forward Rate of Return (Yacktman) % should not be evaluated in isolation — investors should consider it alongside profitability, growth, and financial strength metrics. Transurban Group's current Forward Rate of Return (Yacktman) % of 8.38% is 5.5% below the industry median. Use the industry distribution chart on this page to see where any company falls relative to its peers.
What does a high Forward Rate of Return (Yacktman) % mean?
A high Forward Rate of Return (Yacktman) % can signal that a stock is expensive relative to its fundamentals. Yacktman's forward rate of return equals the sum of normalized free-cash-flow yield plus earnings growth. View historical data on Transurban Group and its competitors. For the Construction industry, the median Forward Rate of Return (Yacktman) % is 8.87 — values significantly above this may indicate overvaluation, while values below may suggest a bargain or underlying issues. Transurban Group's current Forward Rate of Return (Yacktman) % is 8.38%, which is 157% above median its own 10-year median of 3.26. However, context matters — high-growth companies often justify higher valuations. Always evaluate alongside other metrics like GF Score™ and GF Value™.
Is Transurban Group stock overvalued right now?
Based on GuruFocus' analysis, Transurban Group (ASX:TCL) is currently considered Fairly Valued. The stock's GF Value™ is A$13.17, compared to a current price of A$13.95 — trading 5.9% above its estimated fair value. The current Forward Rate of Return (Yacktman) % is 8.38%, which is 157% above median its 10-year median of 3.26 and 5.5% below the Construction industry median of 8.87. Transurban Group's overall GF Score™ is 75/100 with 9 warning signs to review. Investors should evaluate multiple metrics — including profitability, growth, and financial strength — before making a decision.
How is Forward Rate of Return (Yacktman) % calculated?
Forward Rate of Return (Yacktman) % is calculated from a company's financial statements. For Transurban Group (ASX:TCL), the current Forward Rate of Return (Yacktman) % is 8.38% as of Jun. 2026. GuruFocus calculates this using data sourced from SEC filings and annual reports. See the calculation section and 30-year financial data on this page for the full breakdown.
Is Transurban Group (ASX:TCL) Overvalued in 2026?
Based on GuruFocus' analysis, Transurban Group stock appears to be overvalued.
The current stock price of A$13.95 is trading 5.9% above its estimated GF Value™ of A$13.17.
GuruFocus considers Transurban Group to be Fairly Valued.
Key valuation signals for ASX:TCL:
Forward Rate of Return (Yacktman) %: 8.38% (157% above median its 10-year median of 3.26)
GF Value™: A$13.17 vs. price of A$13.95 (5.9% above fair value)
Industry Position: 5.5% below the Construction median (#662 of 1300)
No single metric tells the full story. See the ASX:TCL stock analysis page for a complete view including 30-year financials, guru trades, and insider activity.
Transurban Group is an owner/operator of toll roads in Melbourne, Sydney, and Brisbane. It also owns toll roads in Virginia, USA, and Montreal, Canada. The weighted average concession life across the portfolio is about 25 years. Australian assets contribute around 90% of proportional revenue.
75GF Score
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