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Admiral Group (LSE:ADM) Beneish M-Score : -2.34 (As of Dec. 15, 2024)


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What is Admiral Group Beneish M-Score?

Note: Financial institutions were excluded from the sample in Beneish paper when calculating Beneish M-Score. Thus, the prediction might not fit banks and insurance companies.

The zones of discrimination for M-Score is as such:

An M-Score of equal or less than -1.78 suggests that the company is unlikely to be a manipulator.
An M-Score of greater than -1.78 signals that the company is likely to be a manipulator.

Good Sign:

Beneish M-Score -2.34 no higher than -1.78, which implies that the company is unlikely to be a manipulator.

The historical rank and industry rank for Admiral Group's Beneish M-Score or its related term are showing as below:

LSE:ADM' s Beneish M-Score Range Over the Past 10 Years
Min: -2.79   Med: -2.61   Max: -2.23
Current: -2.34

During the past 13 years, the highest Beneish M-Score of Admiral Group was -2.23. The lowest was -2.79. And the median was -2.61.


Admiral Group Beneish M-Score Calculation

The M-score was created by Professor Messod Beneish. Instead of measuring the bankruptcy risk (Altman Z-Score) or business trend (Piotroski F-Score), M-score can be used to detect the risk of earnings manipulation. This is the original research paper on M-score.

The M-Score Variables:

The M-score of Admiral Group for today is based on a combination of the following eight different indices:

M=-4.84+0.92 * DSRI+0.528 * GMI+0.404 * AQI+0.892 * SGI+0.115 * DEPI
=-4.84+0.92 * 1.135+0.528 * 1+0.404 * 1.0018+0.892 * 1.1647+0.115 * 0.8065
-0.172 * SGAI+4.679 * TATA-0.327 * LVGI
-0.172 * 0.9672+4.679 * -0.023069-0.327 * 1.0311
=-2.34

* For Operating Data section: All numbers are indicated by the unit behind each term and all currency related amount are in USD.
* For other sections: All numbers are in millions except for per share data, ratio, and percentage. All currency related amount are indicated in the company's associated stock exchange currency.

This Year (Dec23) TTM:Last Year (Dec22) TTM:
Total Receivables was £430 Mil.
Revenue was £3,551 Mil.
Gross Profit was £3,551 Mil.
Total Current Assets was £0 Mil.
Total Assets was £7,096 Mil.
Property, Plant and Equipment(Net PPE) was £90 Mil.
Depreciation, Depletion and Amortization(DDA) was £59 Mil.
Selling, General, & Admin. Expense(SGA) was £654 Mil.
Total Current Liabilities was £0 Mil.
Long-Term Debt & Capital Lease Obligation was £1,211 Mil.
Net Income was £338 Mil.
Gross Profit was £223 Mil.
Cash Flow from Operations was £279 Mil.
Total Receivables was £326 Mil.
Revenue was £3,049 Mil.
Gross Profit was £3,049 Mil.
Total Current Assets was £0 Mil.
Total Assets was £6,209 Mil.
Property, Plant and Equipment(Net PPE) was £90 Mil.
Depreciation, Depletion and Amortization(DDA) was £42 Mil.
Selling, General, & Admin. Expense(SGA) was £581 Mil.
Total Current Liabilities was £0 Mil.
Long-Term Debt & Capital Lease Obligation was £1,028 Mil.




1. DSRI = Days Sales in Receivables Index

Measured as the ratio of Revenue in Total Receivables in year t to year t-1.

A large increase in DSR could be indicative of revenue inflation.

DSRI=(Receivables_t / Revenue_t) / (Receivables_t-1 / Revenue_t-1)
=(430.3 / 3551.3) / (325.5 / 3049)
=0.121167 / 0.106756
=1.135

2. GMI = Gross Margin Index

Measured as the ratio of gross margin in year t-1 to gross margin in year t.

Gross margin has deteriorated when this index is above 1. A firm with poorer prospects is more likely to manipulate earnings.

GMI=GrossMargin_t-1 / GrossMargin_t
=(GrossProfit_t-1 / Revenue_t-1) / (GrossProfit_t / Revenue_t)
=(3049 / 3049) / (3551.3 / 3551.3)
=1 / 1
=1

3. AQI = Asset Quality Index

AQI is the ratio of asset quality in year t to year t-1.

Asset quality is measured as the ratio of non-current assets other than Property, Plant and Equipment to Total Assets.

AQI=(1 - (CurrentAssets_t + PPE_t) / TotalAssets_t) / (1 - (CurrentAssets_t-1 + PPE_t-1) / TotalAssets_t-1)
=(1 - (0 + 90.1) / 7096.2) / (1 - (0 + 89.8) / 6208.8)
=0.987303 / 0.985537
=1.0018

4. SGI = Sales Growth Index

Ratio of Revenue in year t to sales in year t-1.

Sales growth is not itself a measure of manipulation. However, growth companies are likely to find themselves under pressure to manipulate in order to keep up appearances.

SGI=Sales_t / Sales_t-1
=Revenue_t / Revenue_t-1
=3551.3 / 3049
=1.1647

5. DEPI = Depreciation Index

Measured as the ratio of the rate of Depreciation, Depletion and Amortization in year t-1 to the corresponding rate in year t.

DEPI greater than 1 indicates that assets are being depreciated at a slower rate. This suggests that the firm might be revising useful asset life assumptions upwards, or adopting a new method that is income friendly.

DEPI=(Depreciation_t-1 / (Depreciaton_t-1 + PPE_t-1)) / (Depreciation_t / (Depreciaton_t + PPE_t))
=(41.9 / (41.9 + 89.8)) / (58.7 / (58.7 + 90.1))
=0.318147 / 0.394489
=0.8065

Note: If the Depreciation, Depletion and Amortization data is not available, we assume that the depreciation rate is constant and set the Depreciation Index to 1.

6. SGAI = Sales, General and Administrative expenses Index

The ratio of Selling, General, & Admin. Expense(SGA) to Sales in year t relative to year t-1.

SGA expenses index > 1 means that the company is becoming less efficient in generate sales.

SGAI=(SGA_t / Sales_t) / (SGA_t-1 /Sales_t-1)
=(654.3 / 3551.3) / (580.8 / 3049)
=0.184242 / 0.190489
=0.9672

7. LVGI = Leverage Index

The ratio of total debt to Total Assets in year t relative to yeat t-1.

An LVGI > 1 indicates an increase in leverage

LVGI=((LTD_t + CurrentLiabilities_t) / TotalAssets_t) / ((LTD_t-1 + CurrentLiabilities_t-1) / TotalAssets_t-1)
=((1211 + 0) / 7096.2) / ((1027.6 + 0) / 6208.8)
=0.170655 / 0.165507
=1.0311

8. TATA = Total Accruals to Total Assets

Total accruals calculated as the change in working capital accounts other than cash less depreciation.

TATA=(IncomefromContinuingOperations_t - CashFlowsfromOperations_t) / TotalAssets_t
=(NetIncome_t - NonOperatingIncome_t - CashFlowsfromOperations_t) / TotalAssets_t
=(338 - 222.7 - 279) / 7096.2
=-0.023069

An M-Score of equal or less than -1.78 suggests that the company is unlikely to be a manipulator. An M-Score of greater than -1.78 signals that the company is likely to be a manipulator.

Admiral Group has a M-score of -2.34 suggests that the company is unlikely to be a manipulator.


Admiral Group Beneish M-Score Related Terms

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Admiral Group Business Description

Traded in Other Exchanges
Address
David Street, Ty Admiral, Cardiff, GBR, CF10 2EH
Admiral is a personal lines insurer that operates predominantly in the United Kingdom. The business is primarily a motor insurer with UK and European auto insurance accounting for the majority of gross premium. The business also has a nascent but growing UK home insurance offering. Admiral was established in 1993 to sell motor insurance to nonstandard risks. These nonstandard policyholders included younger drivers, female drivers, drivers wanting to pay by credit card, and drivers based in London. Over the years the company has continued to expand its perimeter of nonstandard risks.