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Cincinnati Financial (LTS:0HYE) Beneish M-Score : -2.26 (As of Dec. 15, 2024)


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What is Cincinnati Financial Beneish M-Score?

Note: Financial institutions were excluded from the sample in Beneish paper when calculating Beneish M-Score. Thus, the prediction might not fit banks and insurance companies.

The zones of discrimination for M-Score is as such:

An M-Score of equal or less than -1.78 suggests that the company is unlikely to be a manipulator.
An M-Score of greater than -1.78 signals that the company is likely to be a manipulator.

Good Sign:

Beneish M-Score -2.26 no higher than -1.78, which implies that the company is unlikely to be a manipulator.

The historical rank and industry rank for Cincinnati Financial's Beneish M-Score or its related term are showing as below:

LTS:0HYE' s Beneish M-Score Range Over the Past 10 Years
Min: -2.63   Med: -2.52   Max: -2.11
Current: -2.26

During the past 13 years, the highest Beneish M-Score of Cincinnati Financial was -2.11. The lowest was -2.63. And the median was -2.52.


Cincinnati Financial Beneish M-Score Calculation

The M-score was created by Professor Messod Beneish. Instead of measuring the bankruptcy risk (Altman Z-Score) or business trend (Piotroski F-Score), M-score can be used to detect the risk of earnings manipulation. This is the original research paper on M-score.

The M-Score Variables:

The M-score of Cincinnati Financial for today is based on a combination of the following eight different indices:

M=-4.84+0.92 * DSRI+0.528 * GMI+0.404 * AQI+0.892 * SGI+0.115 * DEPI
=-4.84+0.92 * 0.717+0.528 * 1+0.404 * 1.0005+0.892 * 1.5257+0.115 * 1.1029
-0.172 * SGAI+4.679 * TATA-0.327 * LVGI
-0.172 * 1+4.679 * -0.006775-0.327 * 0.916
=-2.26

* For Operating Data section: All numbers are indicated by the unit behind each term and all currency related amount are in USD.
* For other sections: All numbers are in millions except for per share data, ratio, and percentage. All currency related amount are indicated in the company's associated stock exchange currency.

This Year (Dec23) TTM:Last Year (Dec22) TTM:
Total Receivables was $3,543 Mil.
Revenue was $10,013 Mil.
Gross Profit was $10,013 Mil.
Total Current Assets was $0 Mil.
Total Assets was $32,769 Mil.
Property, Plant and Equipment(Net PPE) was $208 Mil.
Depreciation, Depletion and Amortization(DDA) was $112 Mil.
Selling, General, & Admin. Expense(SGA) was $0 Mil.
Total Current Liabilities was $0 Mil.
Long-Term Debt & Capital Lease Obligation was $849 Mil.
Net Income was $1,843 Mil.
Gross Profit was $13 Mil.
Cash Flow from Operations was $2,052 Mil.
Total Receivables was $3,239 Mil.
Revenue was $6,563 Mil.
Gross Profit was $6,563 Mil.
Total Current Assets was $0 Mil.
Total Assets was $29,732 Mil.
Property, Plant and Equipment(Net PPE) was $202 Mil.
Depreciation, Depletion and Amortization(DDA) was $127 Mil.
Selling, General, & Admin. Expense(SGA) was $0 Mil.
Total Current Liabilities was $0 Mil.
Long-Term Debt & Capital Lease Obligation was $841 Mil.




1. DSRI = Days Sales in Receivables Index

Measured as the ratio of Revenue in Total Receivables in year t to year t-1.

A large increase in DSR could be indicative of revenue inflation.

DSRI=(Receivables_t / Revenue_t) / (Receivables_t-1 / Revenue_t-1)
=(3543 / 10013) / (3239 / 6563)
=0.35384 / 0.493524
=0.717

2. GMI = Gross Margin Index

Measured as the ratio of gross margin in year t-1 to gross margin in year t.

Gross margin has deteriorated when this index is above 1. A firm with poorer prospects is more likely to manipulate earnings.

GMI=GrossMargin_t-1 / GrossMargin_t
=(GrossProfit_t-1 / Revenue_t-1) / (GrossProfit_t / Revenue_t)
=(6563 / 6563) / (10013 / 10013)
=1 / 1
=1

3. AQI = Asset Quality Index

AQI is the ratio of asset quality in year t to year t-1.

Asset quality is measured as the ratio of non-current assets other than Property, Plant and Equipment to Total Assets.

AQI=(1 - (CurrentAssets_t + PPE_t) / TotalAssets_t) / (1 - (CurrentAssets_t-1 + PPE_t-1) / TotalAssets_t-1)
=(1 - (0 + 208) / 32769) / (1 - (0 + 202) / 29732)
=0.993653 / 0.993206
=1.0005

4. SGI = Sales Growth Index

Ratio of Revenue in year t to sales in year t-1.

Sales growth is not itself a measure of manipulation. However, growth companies are likely to find themselves under pressure to manipulate in order to keep up appearances.

SGI=Sales_t / Sales_t-1
=Revenue_t / Revenue_t-1
=10013 / 6563
=1.5257

5. DEPI = Depreciation Index

Measured as the ratio of the rate of Depreciation, Depletion and Amortization in year t-1 to the corresponding rate in year t.

DEPI greater than 1 indicates that assets are being depreciated at a slower rate. This suggests that the firm might be revising useful asset life assumptions upwards, or adopting a new method that is income friendly.

DEPI=(Depreciation_t-1 / (Depreciaton_t-1 + PPE_t-1)) / (Depreciation_t / (Depreciaton_t + PPE_t))
=(127 / (127 + 202)) / (112 / (112 + 208))
=0.386018 / 0.35
=1.1029

Note: If the Depreciation, Depletion and Amortization data is not available, we assume that the depreciation rate is constant and set the Depreciation Index to 1.

6. SGAI = Sales, General and Administrative expenses Index

The ratio of Selling, General, & Admin. Expense(SGA) to Sales in year t relative to year t-1.

SGA expenses index > 1 means that the company is becoming less efficient in generate sales.

SGAI=(SGA_t / Sales_t) / (SGA_t-1 /Sales_t-1)
=(0 / 10013) / (0 / 6563)
=0 / 0
=1

7. LVGI = Leverage Index

The ratio of total debt to Total Assets in year t relative to yeat t-1.

An LVGI > 1 indicates an increase in leverage

LVGI=((LTD_t + CurrentLiabilities_t) / TotalAssets_t) / ((LTD_t-1 + CurrentLiabilities_t-1) / TotalAssets_t-1)
=((849 + 0) / 32769) / ((841 + 0) / 29732)
=0.025909 / 0.028286
=0.916

8. TATA = Total Accruals to Total Assets

Total accruals calculated as the change in working capital accounts other than cash less depreciation.

TATA=(IncomefromContinuingOperations_t - CashFlowsfromOperations_t) / TotalAssets_t
=(NetIncome_t - NonOperatingIncome_t - CashFlowsfromOperations_t) / TotalAssets_t
=(1843 - 13 - 2052) / 32769
=-0.006775

An M-Score of equal or less than -1.78 suggests that the company is unlikely to be a manipulator. An M-Score of greater than -1.78 signals that the company is likely to be a manipulator.

Cincinnati Financial has a M-score of -2.26 suggests that the company is unlikely to be a manipulator.


Cincinnati Financial Beneish M-Score Related Terms

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Cincinnati Financial Business Description

Traded in Other Exchanges
Address
6200 S. Gilmore Road, Fairfield, OH, USA, 45014-5141
Cincinnati Financial Corp is a property and casualty insurance company that generates income through written premiums. A select group of independent agencies actively markets the company's business, home, and automotive insurance within their communities. These agents offer the company's personal lines as well as its standard market, excess, and surplus commercial line policies in many regions in the United States. Cincinnati Financial also offers leasing and financing services. The company operates in segments: Commercial lines insurance, Personal lines insurance, and Excess and surplus lines insurance, Life insurance, and Investments. The vast majority of the company's revenue is generated through commercial lines, followed by personal lines.