NGVC (Natural Grocers by Vitamin Cottage) Beneish M-Score: -2.47 (As of Jun. 25, 2026)


NGVC Natural Grocers by Vitamin Cottage Inc NGVC
84 GF Score
Price $32.69
GF Value $27.27
Valuation Modestly Overvalued
! 2 Warning Signs
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What is Natural Grocers by Vitamin Cottage Beneish M-Score?

Natural Grocers by Vitamin Cottage NGVC +1.62% 84 Beneish M-Score is -2.47 as of Jun. 25, 2026. GuruFocus rates NGVC with a GF Score™ of 84/100 and a GF Value™ of $27.27 (Modestly Overvalued). The stock has 2 warning signs investors should review. Among 293 Retail - Defensive companies, Natural Grocers by Vitamin Cottage ranks worse than 60.07% on this metric.

The zones of discrimination for M-Score is as such:

An M-Score of equal or less than -1.78 suggests that the company is unlikely to be a manipulator.
An M-Score of greater than -1.78 signals that the company is likely to be a manipulator.

Good Sign:

Beneish M-Score -2.47 no higher than -1.78, which implies that the company is unlikely to be a manipulator.

The historical rank and industry rank for Natural Grocers by Vitamin Cottage's Beneish M-Score or its related term are showing as below:

NGVC' s Beneish M-Score Range Over the Past 10 Years
Min: -3.08   Med: -2.6   Max: -2.04
Current: -2.47

During the past 13 years, the highest Beneish M-Score of Natural Grocers by Vitamin Cottage was -2.04. The lowest was -3.08. And the median was -2.60.


Natural Grocers by Vitamin Cottage Beneish M-Score Historical Data

* Premium members only.

The historical data trend for Natural Grocers by Vitamin Cottage's Beneish M-Score can be seen below:

* For Operating Data section: All numbers are indicated by the unit behind each term and all currency related amount are in USD.
* For other sections: All numbers are in millions except for per share data, ratio, and percentage. All currency related amount are indicated in the company's associated stock exchange currency.

Natural Grocers by Vitamin Cottage Beneish M-Score Chart

Natural Grocers by Vitamin Cottage Annual Data
Trend Sep16 Sep17 Sep18 Sep19 Sep20 Sep21 Sep22 Sep23 Sep24 Sep25
Beneish M-Score
Get a 7-Day Free Trial Premium Member Only Premium Member Only -2.68 -2.33 -2.75 -2.63 -2.49

Natural Grocers by Vitamin Cottage Quarterly Data
Jun21 Sep21 Dec21 Mar22 Jun22 Sep22 Dec22 Mar23 Jun23 Sep23 Dec23 Mar24 Jun24 Sep24 Dec24 Mar25 Jun25 Sep25 Dec25 Mar26
Beneish M-Score Get a 7-Day Free Trial Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only -2.32 -2.19 -2.49 -2.73 -2.47

NGVC vs VLGEA, YSWY, DNUT: Beneish M-Score Comparison

For the Grocery Stores subindustry, Natural Grocers by Vitamin Cottage's Beneish M-Score, along with its competitors' market caps and Beneish M-Score data, can be viewed below:

* Competitive companies are chosen from companies within the same industry, with headquarter located in same country, with closest market capitalization; x-axis shows the market cap, and y-axis shows the term value; the bigger the dot, the larger the market cap. Note that "N/A" values will not show up in the chart.


Natural Grocers by Vitamin Cottage Beneish M-Score vs Retail - Defensive Industry

For the Retail - Defensive industry and Consumer Defensive sector, Natural Grocers by Vitamin Cottage's Beneish M-Score distribution charts can be found below:

* The bar in red indicates where Natural Grocers by Vitamin Cottage's Beneish M-Score falls into.


NGVC
84GF Score
Natural Grocers by Vitamin Cottage Inc NGVC
Beneish M-Score is just one metric. See GF Score™, valuation, warning signs, and more.
View Full Analysis

Natural Grocers by Vitamin Cottage Beneish M-Score Calculation

The M-score was created by Professor Messod Beneish. Instead of measuring the bankruptcy risk (Altman Z-Score) or business trend (Piotroski F-Score), M-score can be used to detect the risk of earnings manipulation. This is the original research paper on M-score.

The M-Score Variables:

The M-score of Natural Grocers by Vitamin Cottage for today is based on a combination of the following eight different indices:

M=-4.84+0.92 * DSRI+0.528 * GMI+0.404 * AQI+0.892 * SGI+0.115 * DEPI
=-4.84+0.92 * 1.0203+0.528 * 0.999+0.404 * 1.0639+0.892 * 1.0309+0.115 * 1.0074
-0.172 * SGAI+4.679 * TATA-0.327 * LVGI
-0.172 * 0.9986+4.679 * -0.019027-0.327 * 0.9341
=-2.47

* For Operating Data section: All numbers are indicated by the unit behind each term and all currency related amount are in USD.
* For other sections: All numbers are in millions except for per share data, ratio, and percentage. All currency related amount are indicated in the company's associated stock exchange currency.

This Year (Mar26) TTM:Last Year (Mar25) TTM:
Total Receivables was $13 Mil.
Revenue was 337.376 + 335.579 + 336.141 + 328.705 = $1,338 Mil.
Gross Profit was 102.443 + 98.859 + 99.026 + 98.279 = $399 Mil.
Total Current Assets was $171 Mil.
Total Assets was $685 Mil.
Property, Plant and Equipment(Net PPE) was $497 Mil.
Depreciation, Depletion and Amortization(DDA) was $32 Mil.
Selling, General, & Admin. Expense(SGA) was $42 Mil.
Total Current Liabilities was $162 Mil.
Long-Term Debt & Capital Lease Obligation was $283 Mil.
Net Income was 13.434 + 11.334 + 11.8 + 11.605 = $48 Mil.
Non Operating Income was -0.64 + -0.368 + -0.166 + -0.024 = $-1 Mil.
Cash Flow from Operations was 22.705 + 21.134 + 15.627 + 2.933 = $62 Mil.
Total Receivables was $12 Mil.
Revenue was 335.769 + 330.221 + 322.661 + 309.082 = $1,298 Mil.
Gross Profit was 101.748 + 98.824 + 95.362 + 90.331 = $386 Mil.
Total Current Assets was $163 Mil.
Total Assets was $665 Mil.
Property, Plant and Equipment(Net PPE) was $486 Mil.
Depreciation, Depletion and Amortization(DDA) was $32 Mil.
Selling, General, & Admin. Expense(SGA) was $41 Mil.
Total Current Liabilities was $168 Mil.
Long-Term Debt & Capital Lease Obligation was $295 Mil.




1. DSRI = Days Sales in Receivables Index

Measured as the ratio of Revenue in Total Receivables in year t to year t-1.

A large increase in DSR could be indicative of revenue inflation.

DSRI=(Receivables_t / Revenue_t) / (Receivables_t-1 / Revenue_t-1)
=(13.095 / 1337.801) / (12.449 / 1297.733)
=0.009788 / 0.009593
=1.0203

2. GMI = Gross Margin Index

Measured as the ratio of gross margin in year t-1 to gross margin in year t.

Gross margin has deteriorated when this index is above 1. A firm with poorer prospects is more likely to manipulate earnings.

GMI=GrossMargin_t-1 / GrossMargin_t
=(GrossProfit_t-1 / Revenue_t-1) / (GrossProfit_t / Revenue_t)
=(386.265 / 1297.733) / (398.607 / 1337.801)
=0.297646 / 0.297957
=0.999

3. AQI = Asset Quality Index

AQI is the ratio of asset quality in year t to year t-1.

Asset quality is measured as the ratio of non-current assets other than Property, Plant and Equipment to Total Assets.

AQI=(1 - (CurrentAssets_t + PPE_t) / TotalAssets_t) / (1 - (CurrentAssets_t-1 + PPE_t-1) / TotalAssets_t-1)
=(1 - (170.556 + 497.253) / 684.701) / (1 - (163.248 + 485.931) / 664.59)
=0.024671 / 0.023189
=1.0639

4. SGI = Sales Growth Index

Ratio of Revenue in year t to sales in year t-1.

Sales growth is not itself a measure of manipulation. However, growth companies are likely to find themselves under pressure to manipulate in order to keep up appearances.

SGI=Sales_t / Sales_t-1
=Revenue_t / Revenue_t-1
=1337.801 / 1297.733
=1.0309

5. DEPI = Depreciation Index

Measured as the ratio of the rate of Depreciation, Depletion and Amortization in year t-1 to the corresponding rate in year t.

DEPI greater than 1 indicates that assets are being depreciated at a slower rate. This suggests that the firm might be revising useful asset life assumptions upwards, or adopting a new method that is income friendly.

DEPI=(Depreciation_t-1 / (Depreciaton_t-1 + PPE_t-1)) / (Depreciation_t / (Depreciaton_t + PPE_t))
=(31.615 / (31.615 + 485.931)) / (32.1 / (32.1 + 497.253))
=0.061086 / 0.06064
=1.0074

Note: If the Depreciation, Depletion and Amortization data is not available, we assume that the depreciation rate is constant and set the Depreciation Index to 1.

6. SGAI = Sales, General and Administrative expenses Index

The ratio of Selling, General, & Admin. Expense(SGA) to Sales in year t relative to year t-1.

SGA expenses index > 1 means that the company is becoming less efficient in generate sales.

SGAI=(SGA_t / Sales_t) / (SGA_t-1 /Sales_t-1)
=(41.851 / 1337.801) / (40.656 / 1297.733)
=0.031283 / 0.031328
=0.9986

7. LVGI = Leverage Index

The ratio of total debt to Total Assets in year t relative to yeat t-1.

An LVGI > 1 indicates an increase in leverage

LVGI=((LTD_t + CurrentLiabilities_t) / TotalAssets_t) / ((LTD_t-1 + CurrentLiabilities_t-1) / TotalAssets_t-1)
=((283.037 + 162.48) / 684.701) / ((295.22 + 167.724) / 664.59)
=0.650674 / 0.696586
=0.9341

8. TATA = Total Accruals to Total Assets

Total accruals calculated as the change in working capital accounts other than cash less depreciation.

TATA=(IncomefromContinuingOperations_t - CashFlowsfromOperations_t) / TotalAssets_t
=(NetIncome_t - NonOperatingIncome_t - CashFlowsfromOperations_t) / TotalAssets_t
=(48.173 - -1.198 - 62.399) / 684.701
=-0.019027

An M-Score of equal or less than -1.78 suggests that the company is unlikely to be a manipulator. An M-Score of greater than -1.78 signals that the company is likely to be a manipulator.

Natural Grocers by Vitamin Cottage has a M-score of -2.47 suggests that the company is unlikely to be a manipulator.

Frequently Asked Questions Learn more about Beneish M-Score →
What does a Beneish M-Score of -2.47 mean?
Natural Grocers by Vitamin Cottage (NGVC) has a Beneish M-Score of -2.47 as of Jun. 25, 2026. The Beneish M-score measures the likelihood of earnings manipulation. View historical data on Natural Grocers by Vitamin Cottage and its competitors. According to the industry distribution chart, Natural Grocers by Vitamin Cottage ranks #176 out of 293 companies in the Retail - Defensive industry, placing it in the top 60.1%.
Is Natural Grocers by Vitamin Cottage's Beneish M-Score too high?
Natural Grocers by Vitamin Cottage's current Beneish M-Score is -2.47. Based on the distribution chart, Natural Grocers by Vitamin Cottage ranks #176 out of 293 companies in the Retail - Defensive industry, which is below the industry midpoint. Overall, Natural Grocers by Vitamin Cottage has a GF Score™ of 84/100 and is considered Modestly Overvalued, reflecting its overall financial health beyond just this single metric.
How does Natural Grocers by Vitamin Cottage's Beneish M-Score compare to VLGEA and YSWY?
According to the Retail - Defensive industry distribution chart, Natural Grocers by Vitamin Cottage ranks #176 out of 293 companies for Beneish M-Score. This places Natural Grocers by Vitamin Cottage in the lower half of its industry. See the competitive comparison table and distribution chart on this page for a detailed peer-by-peer breakdown.
What is a good Beneish M-Score for a Retail - Defensive company?
A good Beneish M-Score depends on the Retail - Defensive industry context. However, Beneish M-Score should not be evaluated in isolation — investors should consider it alongside profitability, growth, and financial strength metrics. Use the industry distribution chart on this page to see where any company falls relative to its peers.
What does a high Beneish M-Score mean?
A high Beneish M-Score can signal that a stock is expensive relative to its fundamentals. The Beneish M-score measures the likelihood of earnings manipulation. View historical data on Natural Grocers by Vitamin Cottage and its competitors. Natural Grocers by Vitamin Cottage's current Beneish M-Score is -2.47. However, context matters — high-growth companies often justify higher valuations. Always evaluate alongside other metrics like GF Score™ and GF Value™.
Is Natural Grocers by Vitamin Cottage stock overvalued right now?
Based on GuruFocus' analysis, Natural Grocers by Vitamin Cottage (NGVC) is currently considered Modestly Overvalued. The stock's GF Value™ is $27.27, compared to a current price of $32.69 — trading 19.9% above its estimated fair value. The current Beneish M-Score is -2.47. Natural Grocers by Vitamin Cottage's overall GF Score™ is 84/100 with 2 warning signs to review. Investors should evaluate multiple metrics — including profitability, growth, and financial strength — before making a decision.
How is Beneish M-Score calculated?
Beneish M-Score is calculated from a company's financial statements. For Natural Grocers by Vitamin Cottage (NGVC), the current Beneish M-Score is -2.47 as of Jun. 25, 2026. GuruFocus calculates this using data sourced from SEC filings and annual reports. See the calculation section and 30-year financial data on this page for the full breakdown.

Is Natural Grocers by Vitamin Cottage (NGVC) Overvalued in 2026?

Based on GuruFocus' analysis, Natural Grocers by Vitamin Cottage stock appears to be overvalued. The current stock price of $32.69 is trading 19.9% above its estimated GF Value™ of $27.27. GuruFocus considers Natural Grocers by Vitamin Cottage to be Modestly Overvalued.

Key valuation signals for NGVC:

  • Beneish M-Score: -2.47
  • GF Value™: $27.27 vs. price of $32.69 (19.9% above fair value)
  • GF Score™: 84/100 with 2 warning signs

No single metric tells the full story. See the NGVC stock analysis page for a complete view including 30-year financials, guru trades, and insider activity.


Natural Grocers by Vitamin Cottage Business Description

Other Exchanges N2V:Germany
Address 12612 West Alameda Parkway, Lakewood, CO, USA, 80228
Natural Grocers by Vitamin Cottage Inc operates natural and organic grocery and dietary supplement stores. It offers the following product categories: natural and organic food, dietary supplements, natural body care, household, pet care products, books, and handouts. The Company has a single reporting segment, natural and organic retail stores, through which business is conducted. The company generates the majority of its revenue from grocery products and dietary supplements, and the rest from other products.
84GF Score

Get the complete analysis for NGVC

Beneish M-Score is just one metric. See GF Value™, 30-year financials, guru trades, warning signs, and more.

$32.69
Price
$27.27
GF Value