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Natural Grocers by Vitamin CottageNGVC -0.61%86 Forward Rate of Return (Yacktman) % is 15.89% as of Mar. 2026, which is 59% above its 10-year median of 10.01. GuruFocus rates NGVC with a GF Score™ of 86/100 and a GF Value™ of $27.38 (Modestly Overvalued). The stock has 2 warning signs investors should review. Among 222 Retail - Defensive companies, Natural Grocers by Vitamin Cottage ranks better than 54.5% on this metric.
Yacktman defines forward rate of return as the normalized free cash flow yield plus real growth plus inflation. Natural Grocers by Vitamin Cottage's forward rate of return for was 15.89%.
The historical rank and industry rank for Natural Grocers by Vitamin Cottage's Forward Rate of Return (Yacktman) % or its related term are showing as below:
NGVC'
s Forward Rate of Return (Yacktman) % Range Over the Past 10 Years
Min: -1.26 Med: 10.01 Max: 17.96
Current: 15.05
During the past 13 years, Natural Grocers by Vitamin Cottage's highest Forward Rate of Return was 17.96. The lowest was -1.26. And the median was 10.01.
NGVC's Forward Rate of Return (Yacktman) % is ranked better than 54.5% of 222
companies
in the Retail - Defensive industry
Industry Median: 14.08
vs NGVC: 15.05
Unlike the Earnings Yield %, the Forward Rate of Return uses the normalized Free Cash Flow of the past five years, and considers growth. The forward rate of return can be thought of as the return that investors buying the stock today can expect from it in the future.
Natural Grocers by Vitamin Cottage (NYSE:NGVC) Forward Rate of Return (Yacktman) % Explanation
Unlike the Earnings Yield, the Forward Rate of Return uses the normalized Free Cash Flow of the past five years, and considers growth. The forward rate of return can be thought of as the return that investors buying the stock today can expect from it in the future.
For the growth part of the Forward Rate of Return calculation, GuruFocus uses the 5-year average growth rate of EBITDA per share as the growth rate, and the growth rate is always capped at 20%. For the Free Cash Flow we use per share data averaged over five years. The reason we use five years is to make it comparable to the growth rate.
Be Aware
In the Forward Rate of Return calculation, the growth rate is added directly to today's free cash flow yield. Therefore the calculation is reliable only if the company can grow at the same rate in the future as it did in the past. Investors should pay close attention to this when researching growth stocks. A more accurate measurement for return is Return on Capital.
Natural Grocers by Vitamin Cottage Forward Rate of Return (Yacktman) % Related Terms
Natural Grocers by Vitamin Cottage Forward Rate of Return (Yacktman) % Historical Data
* For Operating Data section: All numbers are indicated by the unit behind each term and all currency related amount are in USD. * For other sections: All numbers are in millions except for per share data, ratio, and percentage. All currency related amount are indicated in the company's associated stock exchange currency.
Natural Grocers by Vitamin Cottage Forward Rate of Return (Yacktman) % Chart
NGVC vs YSWY, VLGEA, DNUT: Forward Rate of Return (Yacktman) % Comparison
For the Grocery Stores subindustry, Natural Grocers by Vitamin Cottage's Forward Rate of Return (Yacktman) %, along with its competitors' market caps and Forward Rate of Return (Yacktman) % data, can be viewed below:
* Competitive companies are chosen from companies within the same industry, with headquarter located in same country, with closest market capitalization; x-axis shows the market cap, and y-axis shows the term value; the bigger the dot, the larger the market cap. Note that "N/A" values will not show up in the chart.
Natural Grocers by Vitamin Cottage Forward Rate of Return (Yacktman) % vs Retail - Defensive Industry
For the Retail - Defensive industry and Consumer Defensive sector, Natural Grocers by Vitamin Cottage's Forward Rate of Return (Yacktman) % distribution charts can be found below:
* The bar in red indicates where Natural Grocers by Vitamin Cottage's Forward Rate of Return (Yacktman) % falls into.
Natural Grocers by Vitamin Cottage Forward Rate of Return (Yacktman) % Calculation
Forward Rate of Return is a concept that Don Yacktman uses in his investment approach. Yacktman explained the forward rate of return concept in detail in his interview with GuruFocus. Yacktman defines forward rate of return as the normalized free cash flow yield plus real growth plus inflation. He said in the interview (March 2012, when the S&P 500 was at about 1400):
If the business is stable, this calculation is fairly straightforward. For instance, on the S&P 500 we would normalize earnings. We would then calculate what percentage of those earnings are not reinvested in the underlying businesses and are therefore free. Historically, for the S&P 500, this has been just under 50% of earnings. Currently, we expect the S&P to earn about 70 on a normalized basis, a number which is far below reported earnings due to our adjusting for record high profit margins. $70 X ½ / 1400 gives you a normalized free cash flow yield of approximately 2.5%.
The historical real growth rate of the S&P 500 (companies) is about 1.5%. Assuming an inflation rate of 2.5%, the forward rate of return on an investment in the S&P 500 is about 6.5% today (2.5% free cash flow yield plus 1.5% real growth plus 2.5% inflation).
* For Operating Data section: All numbers are indicated by the unit behind each term and all currency related amount are in USD. * For other sections: All numbers are in millions except for per share data, ratio, and percentage. All currency related amount are indicated in the company's associated stock exchange currency.
What does a Forward Rate of Return (Yacktman) % of 15.89% mean?
Natural Grocers by Vitamin Cottage (NGVC) has a Forward Rate of Return (Yacktman) % of 15.89% as of Mar. 2026. Yacktman's forward rate of return equals the sum of normalized free-cash-flow yield plus earnings growth. View historical data on Natural Grocers by Vitamin Cottage and its competitors. This is 59% above median its historical median of 10.01. According to the industry distribution chart, Natural Grocers by Vitamin Cottage ranks #101 out of 222 companies in the Retail - Defensive industry, placing it in the top 45.5%.
Is Natural Grocers by Vitamin Cottage's Forward Rate of Return (Yacktman) % too high?
Natural Grocers by Vitamin Cottage's current Forward Rate of Return (Yacktman) % of 15.89% is 59% above median its 10-year median of 10.01. The Retail - Defensive industry median Forward Rate of Return (Yacktman) % is 14.08. Natural Grocers by Vitamin Cottage's value of 15.89% is 12.9% above this industry median. Based on the distribution chart, Natural Grocers by Vitamin Cottage ranks #101 out of 222 companies in the Retail - Defensive industry, which is above the industry midpoint. Overall, Natural Grocers by Vitamin Cottage has a GF Score™ of 86/100 and is considered Modestly Overvalued, reflecting its overall financial health beyond just this single metric.
How does Natural Grocers by Vitamin Cottage's Forward Rate of Return (Yacktman) % compare to YSWY and VLGEA?
According to the Retail - Defensive industry distribution chart, Natural Grocers by Vitamin Cottage ranks #101 out of 222 companies for Forward Rate of Return (Yacktman) %. This puts Natural Grocers by Vitamin Cottage in the upper half of its industry. The industry median Forward Rate of Return (Yacktman) % is 14.08. Natural Grocers by Vitamin Cottage's value of 15.89% is 12.9% above this benchmark. While the company's 10-year median is 10.01 vs. the industry median of 14.08, Natural Grocers by Vitamin Cottage has consistently been above the industry average. See the competitive comparison table and distribution chart on this page for a detailed peer-by-peer breakdown.
What is a good Forward Rate of Return (Yacktman) % for a Retail - Defensive company?
The median Forward Rate of Return (Yacktman) % among Retail - Defensive companies is 14.08, based on 222 companies in the industry. Companies in the top quartile (top 25%) have a Forward Rate of Return (Yacktman) % significantly above this median, while those in the bottom quartile fall well below. However, Forward Rate of Return (Yacktman) % should not be evaluated in isolation — investors should consider it alongside profitability, growth, and financial strength metrics. Natural Grocers by Vitamin Cottage's current Forward Rate of Return (Yacktman) % of 15.89% is 12.9% above the industry median. Use the industry distribution chart on this page to see where any company falls relative to its peers.
What does a high Forward Rate of Return (Yacktman) % mean?
A high Forward Rate of Return (Yacktman) % can signal that a stock is expensive relative to its fundamentals. Yacktman's forward rate of return equals the sum of normalized free-cash-flow yield plus earnings growth. View historical data on Natural Grocers by Vitamin Cottage and its competitors. For the Retail - Defensive industry, the median Forward Rate of Return (Yacktman) % is 14.08 — values significantly above this may indicate overvaluation, while values below may suggest a bargain or underlying issues. Natural Grocers by Vitamin Cottage's current Forward Rate of Return (Yacktman) % is 15.89%, which is 59% above median its own 10-year median of 10.01. However, context matters — high-growth companies often justify higher valuations. Always evaluate alongside other metrics like GF Score™ and GF Value™.
Is Natural Grocers by Vitamin Cottage stock overvalued right now?
Based on GuruFocus' analysis, Natural Grocers by Vitamin Cottage (NGVC) is currently considered Modestly Overvalued. The stock's GF Value™ is $27.38, compared to a current price of $32.73 — trading 19.5% above its estimated fair value. The current Forward Rate of Return (Yacktman) % is 15.89%, which is 59% above median its 10-year median of 10.01 and 12.9% above the Retail - Defensive industry median of 14.08. Natural Grocers by Vitamin Cottage's overall GF Score™ is 86/100 with 2 warning signs to review. Investors should evaluate multiple metrics — including profitability, growth, and financial strength — before making a decision.
How is Forward Rate of Return (Yacktman) % calculated?
Forward Rate of Return (Yacktman) % is calculated from a company's financial statements. For Natural Grocers by Vitamin Cottage (NGVC), the current Forward Rate of Return (Yacktman) % is 15.89% as of Mar. 2026. GuruFocus calculates this using data sourced from SEC filings and annual reports. See the calculation section and 30-year financial data on this page for the full breakdown.
Is Natural Grocers by Vitamin Cottage (NGVC) Overvalued in 2026?
Based on GuruFocus' analysis, Natural Grocers by Vitamin Cottage stock appears to be overvalued.
The current stock price of $32.73 is trading 19.5% above its estimated GF Value™ of $27.38.
GuruFocus considers Natural Grocers by Vitamin Cottage to be Modestly Overvalued.
Key valuation signals for NGVC:
Forward Rate of Return (Yacktman) %: 15.89% (59% above median its 10-year median of 10.01)
GF Value™: $27.38 vs. price of $32.73 (19.5% above fair value)
Industry Position: 12.9% above the Retail - Defensive median (#101 of 222)
No single metric tells the full story. See the NGVC stock analysis page for a complete view including 30-year financials, guru trades, and insider activity.
Natural Grocers by Vitamin Cottage Business Description
Natural Grocers by Vitamin Cottage Inc operates natural and organic grocery and dietary supplement stores. It offers the following product categories: natural and organic food, dietary supplements, natural body care, household, pet care products, books, and handouts. The Company has a single reporting segment, natural and organic retail stores, through which business is conducted. The company generates the majority of its revenue from grocery products and dietary supplements, and the rest from other products.
86GF Score
Get the complete analysis for NGVC
Forward Rate of Return (Yacktman) % is just one metric. See GF Value™, 30-year financials, guru trades, warning signs, and more.
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