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ZTO Express (Cayman)BSP:Z1TO34 95 Peter Lynch Fair Value is R$41.19 as of Jul. 20, 2026, which is 100% below its 10-year median of 1.54. GuruFocus rates BSP:Z1TO34 with a GF Score™ of 95/100 and a GF Value™ of R$36.17 (Modestly Undervalued). The stock has 3 warning signs investors should review. Among 320 Transportation companies, ZTO Express (Cayman) ranks better than 53.75% on this metric.
Peter Lynch Fair Value applies to growing companies. The ideal range for the growth rate is between 10 - 20% a year. Peter Lynch thinks that the fair P/E value for a growth company equals its growth rate, that is PEG = 1. The earnings here is trailing twelve month (TTM) earnings. For non-bank companies, the growth rate we use is the average growth rate for EBITDA per share over the past 5 years. For Banks, the growth rate we use is the average growth rate for Book Value per share over the past 5 years. If 5-Year Growth Rate is greater than 25% a year, we use 25. If 5-Year Growth Rate is smaller than 5% a year, we do not calculate Peter Lynch Fair Value.
Here, as of today, ZTO Express (Cayman)'s PEG is 1. ZTO Express (Cayman)'s 5-Year TTM EBITDA Growth Rate is 18.26.
ZTO Express (Cayman)'s EPS without NRI for the trailing twelve months (TTM) ended in Mar. 2026 was R$2.26. Therefore, the Peter Lynch Fair Value for today is R$41.19.
The historical rank and industry rank for ZTO Express (Cayman)'s Peter Lynch Fair Value or its related term are showing as below:
BSP:Z1TO34'
s Price-to-Peter-Lynch-Fair-Value Range Over the Past 10 Years
Min: 0.66 Med: 1.54 Max: 3.38
Current: 0.85
During the past 12 years, the highest Price to Peter Lynch Fair Value Ratio of ZTO Express (Cayman) was 3.38. The lowest was 0.66. And the median was 1.54.
BSP:Z1TO34's Price-to-Peter-Lynch-Fair-Value is ranked better than 53.75% of 320
companies
in the Transportation industry
Industry Median: 0.91
vs BSP:Z1TO34: 0.85
Note: Please don't confuse Peter Lynch Fair Value with the value reached in Peter Lynch Chart.
ZTO Express (Cayman) (BSP:Z1TO34) Peter Lynch Fair Value Explanation
Peter Lynch Fair Value applies to growing companies. The ideal range for the growth rate is between 10 - 20% a year.
Peter Lynch thinks that the fair P/E value for a growth company equals its growth rate, that is PEG = 1. The earnings here is trailing twelve month (TTM) earnings. For non-bank companies, the growth rate we use is the average growth rate for EBITDA per share over the past 5 years. For Banks, the growth rate we use is the average growth rate for Book Value per share over the past 5 years.
Please don't confuse Peter Lynch Fair Value with the value reached in Peter Lynch Chart. In Peter Lynch chart, a fixed P/E ratio of 15 is used to draw the Earnings Line. Therefore the value reached has a P/E ratio of 15. But in Peter Lynch Fair Value calculation, P/E equals to the growth rate of EBITDA per share over the past 5 years, which is 18.26 instead of 15 in this case.
ZTO Express (Cayman)'s Price to Peter Lynch Fair Value Ratio for today is calculated as
Price to Peter Lynch Fair Value
=
Share Price
/
Peter Lynch Fair Value
=
31.23
/
41.19
=
0.76
* For Operating Data section: All numbers are indicated by the unit behind each term and all currency related amount are in USD. * For other sections: All numbers are in millions except for per share data, ratio, and percentage. All currency related amount are indicated in the company's associated stock exchange currency.
ZTO Express (Cayman) Peter Lynch Fair Value Related Terms
ZTO Express (Cayman) Peter Lynch Fair Value Historical Data
* Premium members only.
The historical data trend for ZTO Express (Cayman)'s Peter Lynch Fair Value can be seen below:
* For Operating Data section: All numbers are indicated by the unit behind each term and all currency related amount are in USD. * For other sections: All numbers are in millions except for per share data, ratio, and percentage. All currency related amount are indicated in the company's associated stock exchange currency.
BSP:Z1TO34 vs EXPD, CHRW, FDXF: Peter Lynch Fair Value Comparison
For the Integrated Freight & Logistics subindustry, ZTO Express (Cayman)'s Price-to-Peter-Lynch-Fair-Value, along with its competitors' market caps and Price-to-Peter-Lynch-Fair-Value data, can be viewed below:
* Competitive companies are chosen from companies within the same industry, with headquarter located in same country, with closest market capitalization; x-axis shows the market cap, and y-axis shows the term value; the bigger the dot, the larger the market cap. Note that "N/A" values will not show up in the chart.
ZTO Express (Cayman) Price-to-Peter-Lynch-Fair-Value vs Transportation Industry
For the Transportation industry and Industrials sector, ZTO Express (Cayman)'s Price-to-Peter-Lynch-Fair-Value distribution charts can be found below:
* The bar in red indicates where ZTO Express (Cayman)'s Price-to-Peter-Lynch-Fair-Value falls into.
ZTO Express (Cayman)'s EPS without NRI for the trailing twelve months (TTM) ended in Mar. 2026 adds up the quarterly data reported by the company within the most recent 12 months, which was R$2.26.
* For Operating Data section: All numbers are indicated by the unit behind each term and all currency related amount are in USD. * For other sections: All numbers are in millions except for per share data, ratio, and percentage. All currency related amount are indicated in the company's associated stock exchange currency.
** Please be aware that the 5-Year TTM EBITDA Growth Rate is calculated based on TTM data over the last 5 years. For quarterly reported companies, the TTM data adds up the quarterly data reported by the company within the most recent 12 months. For companies that report semi-annually, annually, or do not have enough quarterly data, GuruFocus uses the annual data as the TTM data.
If 5-Year Earnings Growth Rate is greater than 25% a year, we use 25.
If 5-Year Earnings Growth Rate is smaller than 5% a year, we do not calculate Peter Lynch Fair Value.
Please note that we use the 5-year average growth rate of EBITDA per share as the growth rate for non-bank companies, as EBITDA growth is subject to less manipulations than net earnings per share. For banks, we use the 5-year average growth rate of Book Value per share as the growth rate. The reason is that EBITDA is not applicable to Banks and Book value is a relative important measurement for Banks. In the calculation, PEG=1 because Peter Lynch thinks that the fair P/E ratio of the growth stock is equal to its earnings growth rate.
What does a Peter Lynch Fair Value of R$41.19 mean?
ZTO Express (Cayman) (BSP:Z1TO34) has a Peter Lynch Fair Value of R$41.19 as of Jul. 20, 2026. Peter Lynch Fair Value is the stock value based on a company's current earnings and five-year earnings growth, assuming a PEG of one. View historical data on ZTO Express (Cayman) and its competitors. This is 2575% above median its historical median of 1.54. Over the past decade, ZTO Express (Cayman)'s Peter Lynch Fair Value has ranged from 0.66 to 3.38. According to the industry distribution chart, ZTO Express (Cayman) ranks #148 out of 320 companies in the Transportation industry, placing it in the top 46.2%.
Is ZTO Express (Cayman)'s Peter Lynch Fair Value too high?
ZTO Express (Cayman)'s current Peter Lynch Fair Value of R$41.19 is 2575% above median its 10-year median of 1.54. Over the past 10 years, this metric has ranged from a low of 0.66 to a high of 3.38. Based on the distribution chart, ZTO Express (Cayman) ranks #148 out of 320 companies in the Transportation industry, which is above the industry midpoint. Overall, ZTO Express (Cayman) has a GF Score™ of 95/100 and is considered Modestly Undervalued, reflecting its overall financial health beyond just this single metric.
How does ZTO Express (Cayman)'s Peter Lynch Fair Value compare to EXPD and CHRW?
According to the Transportation industry distribution chart, ZTO Express (Cayman) ranks #148 out of 320 companies for Peter Lynch Fair Value. This puts ZTO Express (Cayman) in the upper half of its industry. The industry median Peter Lynch Fair Value is 0.91. Historically, ZTO Express (Cayman)'s own Peter Lynch Fair Value has ranged from 0.66 to 3.38 over the past decade. See the competitive comparison table and distribution chart on this page for a detailed peer-by-peer breakdown.
What is a good Peter Lynch Fair Value for a Transportation company?
The median Peter Lynch Fair Value among Transportation companies is 0.91, based on 320 companies in the industry. Companies in the top quartile (top 25%) have a Peter Lynch Fair Value significantly above this median, while those in the bottom quartile fall well below. However, Peter Lynch Fair Value should not be evaluated in isolation — investors should consider it alongside profitability, growth, and financial strength metrics. Use the industry distribution chart on this page to see where any company falls relative to its peers.
What does a high Peter Lynch Fair Value mean?
A high Peter Lynch Fair Value can signal that a stock is expensive relative to its fundamentals. Peter Lynch Fair Value is the stock value based on a company's current earnings and five-year earnings growth, assuming a PEG of one. View historical data on ZTO Express (Cayman) and its competitors. For the Transportation industry, the median Peter Lynch Fair Value is 0.91 — values significantly above this may indicate overvaluation, while values below may suggest a bargain or underlying issues. ZTO Express (Cayman)'s current Peter Lynch Fair Value is R$41.19, which is 2575% above median its own 10-year median of 1.54. However, context matters — high-growth companies often justify higher valuations. Always evaluate alongside other metrics like GF Score™ and GF Value™.
Is ZTO Express (Cayman) stock overvalued right now?
Based on GuruFocus' analysis, ZTO Express (Cayman) (BSP:Z1TO34) is currently considered Modestly Undervalued. The stock's GF Value™ is R$36.17, compared to a current price of R$31.23 — trading 13.7% below its estimated fair value. The current Peter Lynch Fair Value is R$41.19, which is 2575% above median its 10-year median of 1.54. ZTO Express (Cayman)'s overall GF Score™ is 95/100 with 3 warning signs to review. Investors should evaluate multiple metrics — including profitability, growth, and financial strength — before making a decision.
How is Peter Lynch Fair Value calculated?
Peter Lynch Fair Value is calculated from a company's financial statements. For ZTO Express (Cayman) (BSP:Z1TO34), the current Peter Lynch Fair Value is R$41.19 as of Jul. 20, 2026. GuruFocus calculates this using data sourced from SEC filings and annual reports. See the calculation section and 30-year financial data on this page for the full breakdown.
Is ZTO Express (Cayman) (BSP:Z1TO34) Overvalued in 2026?
Based on GuruFocus' analysis, ZTO Express (Cayman) stock appears to be undervalued.
The current stock price of R$31.23 is trading 13.7% below its estimated GF Value™ of R$36.17.
GuruFocus considers ZTO Express (Cayman) to be Modestly Undervalued.
Key valuation signals for BSP:Z1TO34:
Peter Lynch Fair Value: R$41.19 (2575% above median its 10-year median of 1.54)
GF Value™: R$36.17 vs. price of R$31.23 (13.7% below fair value)
No single metric tells the full story. See the BSP:Z1TO34 stock analysis page for a complete view including 30-year financials, guru trades, and insider activity.
ZTO Express is China's largest express delivery company by parcel volume, with a volume share of 19.4% in 2024. It operates a network partner model where it provides line-haul transportation and sorting services, while its local network partners provide first-mile pickup and last-mile delivery services under the ZTO brand name. Headquartered in Shanghai, the company was founded in 2002 by Meisong Lai, who remains chair, CEO, and its major shareholder with 78% voting rights as of March 31, 2025. ZTO's strategic shareholder is leading China e-commerce company Alibaba Group with around an 8.9% interest.
95GF Score
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