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ZTO Express (Cayman) (FRA:ZTOB) Peter Lynch Fair Value : €21.93 (As of Oct. 31, 2024)


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What is ZTO Express (Cayman) Peter Lynch Fair Value?

Peter Lynch Fair Value applies to growing companies. The ideal range for the growth rate is between 10 - 20% a year. Peter Lynch thinks that the fair P/E value for a growth company equals its growth rate, that is PEG = 1. The earnings here is trailing twelve month (TTM) earnings. For non-bank companies, the growth rate we use is the average growth rate for EBITDA per share over the past 5 years. For Banks, the growth rate we use is the average growth rate for Book Value per share over the past 5 years. If 5-Year Growth Rate is greater than 25% a year, we use 25. If 5-Year Growth Rate is smaller than 5% a year, we do not calculate Peter Lynch Fair Value.

Here, as of today, ZTO Express (Cayman)'s PEG is 1. ZTO Express (Cayman)'s 5-Year TTM EBITDA Growth Rate is 15.69. ZTO Express (Cayman)'s EPS without NRI for the trailing twelve months (TTM) ended in Jun. 2024 was €1.40. Therefore, the Peter Lynch Fair Value for today is €21.93.

As of today (2024-10-31), ZTO Express (Cayman)'s share price is €20.80. ZTO Express (Cayman)'s Peter Lynch fair value is €21.93. Therefore, ZTO Express (Cayman)'s Price to Peter Lynch Fair Value Ratio for today is 0.95.


The historical rank and industry rank for ZTO Express (Cayman)'s Peter Lynch Fair Value or its related term are showing as below:

FRA:ZTOB' s Price-to-Peter-Lynch-Fair-Value Range Over the Past 10 Years
Min: 1   Med: 2.56   Max: 3.38
Current: 1.12


During the past 10 years, the highest Price to Peter Lynch Fair Value Ratio of ZTO Express (Cayman) was 3.38. The lowest was 1.00. And the median was 2.56.


FRA:ZTOB's Price-to-Peter-Lynch-Fair-Value is ranked worse than
60.24% of 332 companies
in the Transportation industry
Industry Median: 0.85 vs FRA:ZTOB: 1.12

Note: Please don't confuse Peter Lynch Fair Value with the value reached in Peter Lynch Chart.


ZTO Express (Cayman) Peter Lynch Fair Value Historical Data

The historical data trend for ZTO Express (Cayman)'s Peter Lynch Fair Value can be seen below:

* For Operating Data section: All numbers are indicated by the unit behind each term and all currency related amount are in USD.
* For other sections: All numbers are in millions except for per share data, ratio, and percentage. All currency related amount are indicated in the company's associated stock exchange currency.

* Premium members only.

ZTO Express (Cayman) Peter Lynch Fair Value Chart

ZTO Express (Cayman) Annual Data
Trend Dec14 Dec15 Dec16 Dec17 Dec18 Dec19 Dec20 Dec21 Dec22 Dec23
Peter Lynch Fair Value
Get a 7-Day Free Trial Premium Member Only Premium Member Only - 16.13 7.12 8.43 14.60

ZTO Express (Cayman) Quarterly Data
Sep19 Dec19 Mar20 Jun20 Sep20 Dec20 Mar21 Jun21 Sep21 Dec21 Mar22 Jun22 Sep22 Dec22 Mar23 Jun23 Sep23 Dec23 Mar24 Jun24
Peter Lynch Fair Value Get a 7-Day Free Trial Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only 10.78 13.48 14.60 17.84 19.39

Competitive Comparison of ZTO Express (Cayman)'s Peter Lynch Fair Value

For the Integrated Freight & Logistics subindustry, ZTO Express (Cayman)'s Price-to-Peter-Lynch-Fair-Value, along with its competitors' market caps and Price-to-Peter-Lynch-Fair-Value data, can be viewed below:

* Competitive companies are chosen from companies within the same industry, with headquarter located in same country, with closest market capitalization; x-axis shows the market cap, and y-axis shows the term value; the bigger the dot, the larger the market cap. Note that "N/A" values will not show up in the chart.


ZTO Express (Cayman)'s Price-to-Peter-Lynch-Fair-Value Distribution in the Transportation Industry

For the Transportation industry and Industrials sector, ZTO Express (Cayman)'s Price-to-Peter-Lynch-Fair-Value distribution charts can be found below:

* The bar in red indicates where ZTO Express (Cayman)'s Price-to-Peter-Lynch-Fair-Value falls into.



ZTO Express (Cayman) Peter Lynch Fair Value Calculation

ZTO Express (Cayman)'s Peter Lynch Fair Value for today is calculated as

Peter Lynch Fair Value=PEG Ratio*5-Year TTM EBITDA Growth Rate***EPS without NRI (TTM)
=1* 15.69 *1.398
=21.93

ZTO Express (Cayman)'s EPS without NRI for the trailing twelve months (TTM) ended in Jun. 2024 adds up the quarterly data reported by the company within the most recent 12 months, which was €1.40.


* For Operating Data section: All numbers are indicated by the unit behind each term and all currency related amount are in USD.
* For other sections: All numbers are in millions except for per share data, ratio, and percentage. All currency related amount are indicated in the company's associated stock exchange currency.

** Please be aware that the 5-Year TTM EBITDA Growth Rate is calculated based on TTM data over the last 5 years. For quarterly reported companies, the TTM data adds up the quarterly data reported by the company within the most recent 12 months. For companies that report semi-annually, annually, or do not have enough quarterly data, GuruFocus uses the annual data as the TTM data.

If 5-Year Earnings Growth Rate is greater than 25% a year, we use 25.

If 5-Year Earnings Growth Rate is smaller than 5% a year, we do not calculate Peter Lynch Fair Value.

Please note that we use the 5-year average growth rate of EBITDA per share as the growth rate for non-bank companies, as EBITDA growth is subject to less manipulations than net earnings per share. For banks, we use the 5-year average growth rate of Book Value per share as the growth rate. The reason is that EBITDA is not applicable to Banks and Book value is a relative important measurement for Banks. In the calculation, PEG=1 because Peter Lynch thinks that the fair P/E ratio of the growth stock is equal to its earnings growth rate.


ZTO Express (Cayman)  (FRA:ZTOB) Peter Lynch Fair Value Explanation

Peter Lynch Fair Value applies to growing companies. The ideal range for the growth rate is between 10 - 20% a year.

Peter Lynch thinks that the fair P/E value for a growth company equals its growth rate, that is PEG = 1. The earnings here is trailing twelve month (TTM) earnings. For non-bank companies, the growth rate we use is the average growth rate for EBITDA per share over the past 5 years. For Banks, the growth rate we use is the average growth rate for Book Value per share over the past 5 years.

Please don't confuse Peter Lynch Fair Value with the value reached in Peter Lynch Chart. In Peter Lynch chart, a fixed P/E ratio of 15 is used to draw the Earnings Line. Therefore the value reached has a P/E ratio of 15. But in Peter Lynch Fair Value calculation, P/E equals to the growth rate of EBITDA per share over the past 5 years, which is 15.69 instead of 15 in this case.

ZTO Express (Cayman)'s Price to Peter Lynch Fair Value Ratio for today is calculated as

Price to Peter Lynch Fair Value=Share Price/Peter Lynch Fair Value
=20.80/21.93
=0.95

* For Operating Data section: All numbers are indicated by the unit behind each term and all currency related amount are in USD.
* For other sections: All numbers are in millions except for per share data, ratio, and percentage. All currency related amount are indicated in the company's associated stock exchange currency.


ZTO Express (Cayman) Peter Lynch Fair Value Related Terms

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ZTO Express (Cayman) Business Description

Address
No. 1685 Huazhi Road, Building One, Qingpu District, Shanghai, CHN, 201708
ZTO Express is China's largest express delivery company by parcel volume, with a volume share of 22.1% in 2022. It operates a network partner model where it provides line-haul transportation and sorting services, while its local network partners provide first-mile pickup and last-mile delivery services under the ZTO brand name. Headquartered in Shanghai, the company was founded in 2002 by Meisong Lai, who remains chair, CEO, and its major shareholder with 77% voting rights as of June 30, 2023. ZTO's strategic shareholder is leading China e-commerce company Alibaba Group with around an 11.7% interest.

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