What is Ayala Pharmaceuticals Predictability Rank?
Not Rated
Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:
1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.
It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.
GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.
Ayala Pharmaceuticals Predictability Rank Calculation
In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.
Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:
Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.
The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.
Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns
| Predictables | Non-Predictable | All stocks |
|---|
| Total Number of stocks | 570 | 1833 | 2403 |
| Total Lost Money | 61 | 830 | 891 |
| Total Lost More Than 50% | 18 | 412 | 430 |
| Total Lost More Than 90% | 4 | 86 | 90 |
| Average Gain | 260.6% | 100.0% | 138.1% |
| Median Gain | 150.0% | 13.0% | 39.0% |
| Maximum Gain | 2852.0% | 11483.0% | 11483.0% |
| Maximum Loss | -100.0% | -100.0% | -100.0% |
| Annualized Average Gain | 12.7% | 6.7% | 8.4% |
| Annualized Median Gain | 8.9% | 1.1% | 3.1% |
For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.
| Predictability Rank | 5-Star | 4.5-Star | 4-Star | 3.5-Star | 3-Star | 2.5-Star | 2-Star | 1-Star (non-predictable) | Average among all |
|---|
| % Out of All 2403 Stocks |
3.3% |
2.9% |
3.7% |
3.3% |
3.3% |
3.7% |
3.3% |
76.3% |
100% |
| % that are in Loss (10y) |
3% |
10% |
8% |
9% |
11% |
18% |
16% |
45% |
37% |
| Average Gain (10y) |
364.6% |
330.9% |
278.0% |
235.1% |
243.5% |
227.8% |
154.8% |
100.0% |
138.1% |
| Median Gain (10y) |
238.5% |
193.5% |
171.0% |
159.0% |
132.5% |
113.5% |
87.0% |
13.0% |
39.0% |
| Maximum Gainer |
2228.0% |
2547.0% |
2452.0% |
2852.0% |
2432.0% |
1892.0% |
1807.0% |
11483.0% |
11483.0% |
| Maximum Loser |
-82.0% |
-53.0% |
-67.0% |
-100.0% |
-83.0% |
-100.0% |
-78.0% |
-100.0% |
-100.0% |
| Annualized Average Gain |
15.4% |
14.6% |
13.2% |
12.0% |
12.2% |
11.7% |
9.1% |
6.7% |
8.4% |
| Annualized Median Gain |
12.1% |
10.6% |
9.8% |
9.3% |
8.2% |
7.3% |
6.0% |
1.1% |
3.1% |
For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank
Also read:
Part II: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part II: Role of Valuations
Part III: Intrinsic Value, Discounted Cash Flow and Margin of Safety
Ayala Pharmaceuticals Business Description
Traded in Other Exchanges
N/A
Address
9 Deer Park Drive, Suite K-1, Monmouth Junction, NJ, USA, 08852
Ayala Pharmaceuticals Inc is a clinical-stage oncology company whose primary clinical assets currently include aspacytarabine (BST-236), a novel proprietary anti-metabolite for first-line treatment in unfit acute myeloid leukemia (AML). BST-236 is a novel prodrug of cytarabine, enabling the delivery of high cytarabine doses with reduced systemic toxicity, creating a potential new backbone for AML combination regimens. It believes that its novel product candidates if approved, have the potential to transform treatment outcomes for patients suffering from solid and hematological cancers. These efforts are primarily focused on the development of ADXS-504, an Lm-based therapy for early-stage prostate cancer.
Executives
| Yair Chaim Schindel |
other: shareholder of 10% holder |
YERUSHALAYIM ROAD 34, BEIT GAMLA ENTRANCE B, RA'ANANA L3 4350110 |
| Roni Mamluk |
director, officer: CEO |
CHIASMA, INC., 60WELLS AVENUE, NEWTON MA 02459 |
| Gary B. Gordon |
officer: Chief Medical Officer |
C/O AYALA PHARMACEUTICALS, INC., OPPENHEIMER 4, REHOVOT L3 7670104 |
| David Sidransky |
director |
JOHNS HOPKINS UNIVERSITY, 720 RUTLAND AVENUE, BALTIMORE MD 21205 |
| Vered Bisker-leib |
director |
C/O COMPASS, 245 FIRST STREET, 3RD FLOOR, CAMBRIDGE MA 02142 |
| Israel Biotech Fund I, L.p. |
10 percent owner |
4 OPPENHEIMER ST., REHOVOT L3 7670104 |
| Harel Insurance Co Ltd |
10 percent owner |
ABBA HILLEL 3, RAMAT GAN L3 5211802 |
| Amoon Growth Fund Limited Partnership |
10 percent owner |
34 YERUSHALAYIM RD., RAANANA L3 4350110 |
| Murray A Goldberg |
director |
2030 MAIN STREET, SUITE 1500, IRVINE CA 92614 |
| Maimon Yossi |
officer: CFO |
C/O PROTALIX BIOTHERAPEUTICS, INC., 2 SNUNIT ST, SCIENCE PARK, POB 455, CARMIEL L3 20100 |
| Robert J. Spiegel |
director |
C/O GERON CORPORATION, 230 CONSTITUTION DRIVE, MENLO PARK CA 94025 |
| Harel Insurance Investments & Financial Services Ltd. |
10 percent owner |
HAREL HOUSE, 3 ABBA HILLEL ST., RAMAT GAN L3 52118 |
| Todd Sone |
director |
C/O AYALA PHARMACEUTICALS, INC., OPPENHEIMER 4, REHOVOT L3 7670104 |
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