AHLPRBCL.PFD (Aspen Insurance Holdings) Predictability Rank

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What is Aspen Insurance Holdings Predictability Rank?

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

Aspen Insurance Holdings Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

	Predictables	Non-Predictable	All stocks
Total Number of stocks	570	1833	2403
Total Lost Money	61	830	891
Total Lost More Than 50%	18	412	430
Total Lost More Than 90%	4	86	90
Average Gain	260.6%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain	150.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gain	2852.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loss	-100.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	12.7%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	8.9%	1.1%	3.1%

For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank	5-Star	4.5-Star	4-Star	3.5-Star	3-Star	2.5-Star	2-Star	1-Star (non-predictable)	Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks	3.3%	2.9%	3.7%	3.3%	3.3%	3.7%	3.3%	76.3%	100%
% that are in Loss (10y)	3%	10%	8%	9%	11%	18%	16%	45%	37%
Average Gain (10y)	364.6%	330.9%	278.0%	235.1%	243.5%	227.8%	154.8%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain (10y)	238.5%	193.5%	171.0%	159.0%	132.5%	113.5%	87.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gainer	2228.0%	2547.0%	2452.0%	2852.0%	2432.0%	1892.0%	1807.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loser	-82.0%	-53.0%	-67.0%	-100.0%	-83.0%	-100.0%	-78.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	15.4%	14.6%	13.2%	12.0%	12.2%	11.7%	9.1%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	12.1%	10.6%	9.8%	9.3%	8.2%	7.3%	6.0%	1.1%	3.1%

For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

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Aspen Insurance Holdings Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Financial Services » Insurance » Aspen Insurance Holdings Ltd (NYSE:AHLPRBCL.PFD) » Definitions » Predictability Rank

Comparable Companies

Traded in Other Exchanges

AHLpE.PFD:USA AHLpD.PFD:USA

Address

141 Front Street, Hamilton, BMU, HM19

Website

https://www.aspen.co

Aspen Insurance Holdings Ltd is a Bermudian insurance and reinsurance company. Its principal business is marketing and underwriting specialty insurance and reinsurance regularly. It comprises underwriting operations, which include risk-bearing insurance and reinsurance operations; Investing activities, which support underwriting operations; and ACM operations, which earn underwriting, management, and performance fees. It has two segments: Aspen Insurance and Aspen Reinsurance. Aspen Insurance consists of property and casualty insurance, marine, aviation, and energy insurance, and financial and professional lines insurance. Aspen Reinsurance comprises property catastrophe reinsurance, other property reinsurance, casualty reinsurance, and specialty reinsurance.

Executives

Christian Dunleavy	officer: CUO of Aspen Re	C/O ASPEN INSURANCE HOLDINGS LTD, 141 FRONT STREET, HAMILTON D0 HM19
Polycarpos Christakis Frydas	officer: Group Chief Actuary	C/O ASPEN INSURANCE HOLDINGS LTD, 141 FRONT STREET, HAMILTON D0 HM19
Silvia Martinez	officer: Group General Counsel	30 FENCHURCH STREET, LONDON X0 EC3M 3BD
Jeffrey Bryan Astwood	officer: Group Chief Investment Officer	141 FRONT STREET, HAMILTON D0 HM19
Marcus Foley	officer: Group Chief Strategy Officer	141 FRONT STREET, HAMILTON D0 HM19
Alexander W. Humphreys,	director	C/O APOLLO GLOBAL MANAGEMENT, LLC, 9 WEST 57TH STREET, 43RD FLOOR, NEW YORK NY 10019
Gary Parr	director	C/O LAZARD LTD, 30 ROCKEFELLER PLAZA, NEW YORK NY 10020
Mark Bertrand Cloutier	director, officer: CEO Executive Chairman	C/O ASPEN INSURANCE HOLDINGS LTD, 141 FRONT STREET, HAMILTON D0 HM19
Michael Saffer	director	C/O APOLLO GLOBAL MANAGEMENT, LLC, 9 WEST 57TH STREET, 43RD FLOOR, NEW YORK NY 10019
Joshua Black	director	C/O APOLLO MANAGEMENT LP, 9 WEST 57TH STREET, 43RD FLOOR, NEW YORK NY 10019
Gernot Lohr	director	C/O APOLLO MANAGEMENT, L.P.,, 9 W. 57TH STREET, 43RD FLOOR, NEW YORK NY 10019
Grahame Dawe	officer: Chief Accounting Officer	C/O ASPEN INSURANCE HOLDINGS LTD, 141 FRONT STREET, HAMILTON D0 HM19
Bret D Pearlman	director	ASPEN INSURANCE HOLDINGS, 141 FRONT STREET, HAMILTON D0 HM19
David Gerard Schick	officer: Group Chief Operating Officer	ASPEN INSURANCE HOLDINGS LIMITED, 141 FRONT STREET, HAMILTON D0 HM19
Heather Brown	officer: Group HR Director	141 FRONT STREET, HAMILTON D0 HM19