ALHC (Alignment Healthcare) Predictability Rank

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What is Alignment Healthcare Predictability Rank?

Not Rated

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

Alignment Healthcare Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

	Predictables	Non-Predictable	All stocks
Total Number of stocks	570	1833	2403
Total Lost Money	61	830	891
Total Lost More Than 50%	18	412	430
Total Lost More Than 90%	4	86	90
Average Gain	260.6%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain	150.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gain	2852.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loss	-100.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	12.7%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	8.9%	1.1%	3.1%

For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank	5-Star	4.5-Star	4-Star	3.5-Star	3-Star	2.5-Star	2-Star	1-Star (non-predictable)	Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks	3.3%	2.9%	3.7%	3.3%	3.3%	3.7%	3.3%	76.3%	100%
% that are in Loss (10y)	3%	10%	8%	9%	11%	18%	16%	45%	37%
Average Gain (10y)	364.6%	330.9%	278.0%	235.1%	243.5%	227.8%	154.8%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain (10y)	238.5%	193.5%	171.0%	159.0%	132.5%	113.5%	87.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gainer	2228.0%	2547.0%	2452.0%	2852.0%	2432.0%	1892.0%	1807.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loser	-82.0%	-53.0%	-67.0%	-100.0%	-83.0%	-100.0%	-78.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	15.4%	14.6%	13.2%	12.0%	12.2%	11.7%	9.1%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	12.1%	10.6%	9.8%	9.3%	8.2%	7.3%	6.0%	1.1%	3.1%

For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

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Alignment Healthcare Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Healthcare » Healthcare Plans » Alignment Healthcare Inc (NAS:ALHC) » Definitions » Predictability Rank

Comparable Companies

Traded in Other Exchanges

N/A

Address

1100 W. Town & Country Road, Suite 1600, Orange, CA, USA, 92868

Website

https://www.alignmenthealth.com

Alignment Healthcare Inc is a next-generation, consumer-centric platform that is revolutionizing the healthcare experience for seniors through Medicare Advantage plans. These plans are marketed and sold direct-to-consumer, allowing seniors to select the manner in which customers receive healthcare coverage and services on an annual basis. The company combines a technology platform and clinical model for more effective health outcomes.

Executives

General Atlantic (aln Hlth), L.p.	director, 10 percent owner	C/O GENERAL ATLANTIC SERVICE COMPANY, LP, 55 EAST 52ND STREET, 33RD FLOOR, NEW YORK NY 10055
General Atlantic, L.p.	director, 10 percent owner	55 EAST 52ND STREET, 33RD FLOOR, NEW YORK NY 10055
Dawn Christine Maroney	officer: President, Markets	C/O ALIGNMENT HEALTHCARE, INC., 1100 W. TOWN & COUNTRY ROAD, SUITE 1600, ORANGE CA 92868
John E Kao	director, officer: Chief Executive Officer
Christopher J Joyce	officer: Chief Legal and Admin. Officer	C/O ALLIANCE ENTERTAINMENT CORP, 110 EAST 59TH STREET 18TH FLOOR, NEW YORK NY 10022
Robert L. Scavo	officer: Chief Information Officer	C/O ALIGNMENT HEALTHCARE, INC., 1100 W. TOWN AND COUNTRY ROAD, SUITE 160, ORANGE CA 92868
Hakan Kardes	officer: Chief Technology Officer	C/O ALIGNMENT HEALTHCARE, INC., 1100 W. TOWN AND COUNTRY ROAD, SUITE 160, ORANGE CA 92868
Robert Thomas Freeman	officer: Chief Financial Officer	C/O ALIGNMENT HEALTHCARE, INC., 1100 W. TOWN & COUNTRY ROAD, SUITE 1600, ORANGE CA 92868
Hyong Kim	officer: Chief Medical Officer	C/O ALIGNMENT HEALTHCARE, INC., 1100 W TOWN AND COUNTRY ROAD, SUITE 1600, ORANGE CA 92868
Joseph S Konowiecki	director	5995 PLAZA DR, CYPRESS CA 90630
Jeffrey H Margolis	director	567 SAN NICHOLAS DRIVE, SUITE 360, NEWPORT BEACH CA 92660
Melinda Michele Kimbro	officer: Chief People Officer	6155 EL CAMINO REAL, CARLSBAD CA 92009
Dinesh M. Kumar	officer: Chief Health Officer	C/O ALIGNMENT HEALTHCARE, INC., 1100 W. TOWN & COUNTRY ROAD, SUITE 1600, ORANGE CA 92868
Richard A. Cross	officer: SVP, General Counsel	C/O ALIGNMENT HEALTHCARE, INC., 1100 W. TOWN AND COUNTRY ROAD, STE. 1600, ORANGE CA 92868
Warburg Pincus Llc	director, 10 percent owner	450 LEXINGTON AVENUE, NEW YORK NY 10017