What is Amazon.com Predictability Rank?
4 (5)
Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:
1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.
It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.
GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.
Amazon.com Predictability Rank Calculation
In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.
Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:
Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.
The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.
Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns
| Predictables | Non-Predictable | All stocks |
|---|
| Total Number of stocks | 570 | 1833 | 2403 |
| Total Lost Money | 61 | 830 | 891 |
| Total Lost More Than 50% | 18 | 412 | 430 |
| Total Lost More Than 90% | 4 | 86 | 90 |
| Average Gain | 260.6% | 100.0% | 138.1% |
| Median Gain | 150.0% | 13.0% | 39.0% |
| Maximum Gain | 2852.0% | 11483.0% | 11483.0% |
| Maximum Loss | -100.0% | -100.0% | -100.0% |
| Annualized Average Gain | 12.7% | 6.7% | 8.4% |
| Annualized Median Gain | 8.9% | 1.1% | 3.1% |
For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.
| Predictability Rank | 5-Star | 4.5-Star | 4-Star | 3.5-Star | 3-Star | 2.5-Star | 2-Star | 1-Star (non-predictable) | Average among all |
|---|
| % Out of All 2403 Stocks |
3.3% |
2.9% |
3.7% |
3.3% |
3.3% |
3.7% |
3.3% |
76.3% |
100% |
| % that are in Loss (10y) |
3% |
10% |
8% |
9% |
11% |
18% |
16% |
45% |
37% |
| Average Gain (10y) |
364.6% |
330.9% |
278.0% |
235.1% |
243.5% |
227.8% |
154.8% |
100.0% |
138.1% |
| Median Gain (10y) |
238.5% |
193.5% |
171.0% |
159.0% |
132.5% |
113.5% |
87.0% |
13.0% |
39.0% |
| Maximum Gainer |
2228.0% |
2547.0% |
2452.0% |
2852.0% |
2432.0% |
1892.0% |
1807.0% |
11483.0% |
11483.0% |
| Maximum Loser |
-82.0% |
-53.0% |
-67.0% |
-100.0% |
-83.0% |
-100.0% |
-78.0% |
-100.0% |
-100.0% |
| Annualized Average Gain |
15.4% |
14.6% |
13.2% |
12.0% |
12.2% |
11.7% |
9.1% |
6.7% |
8.4% |
| Annualized Median Gain |
12.1% |
10.6% |
9.8% |
9.3% |
8.2% |
7.3% |
6.0% |
1.1% |
3.1% |
For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank
Also read:
Part II: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part II: Role of Valuations
Part III: Intrinsic Value, Discounted Cash Flow and Margin of Safety
Amazon.com Business Description
Traded in Other Exchanges
Address
410 Terry Avenue North, Seattle, WA, USA, 98109-5210
Amazon is the leading online retailer and marketplace for third party sellers. Retail related revenue represents approximately 75% of total, followed by Amazon Web Services' cloud computing, storage, database, and other offerings (15%), advertising services (5% to 10%), and other the remainder. International segments constitute 25% to 30% of Amazon's non-AWS sales, led by Germany, the United Kingdom, and Japan.
Executives
| Douglas J Herrington |
officer: CEO Worldwide Amazon Stores |
PO BOX 81226, SEATTLE WA 98108 |
| Andrew R Jassy |
director, officer: President and CEO |
PO BOX 81226, SEATTLE WA 98108-1226 |
| Shelley Reynolds |
officer: Vice President |
PO BOX 81226, SEATTLE WA 98108 |
| David Zapolsky |
officer: Senior Vice President |
PO BOX 81226, SEATTLE WA 98108 |
| Brian T Olsavsky |
officer: Senior Vice President and CFO |
PO BOX 81226, SEATTLE WA 98108 |
| Daniel P Huttenlocher |
director |
ONE RIVERFRONT PLAZA, CORNING NY 14831 |
| Jeffrey P Bezos |
director, 10 percent owner, officer: Chairman, CEO and President |
PO BOX 81226, SEATTLE WA 98108-1226 |
| Jonathan Rubinstein |
director |
APPLE COMPUTER INC, 1 INFINITE LOOP, CUPERTINO CA 95014 |
| Keith Brian Alexander |
director |
P.O. BOX 81226, SEATTLE WA 98108-1226 |
| Adam Selipsky |
officer: CEO Amazon Web Services |
PO BOX 81226, SEATTLE WA 98108 |
| Judith A Mcgrath |
director |
PO BOX 81226, SEATTLE WA 98108 |
| Brad D Smith |
director |
1040 13TH AVE, HUNTINGTON WV 25701 |
| David H Clark |
officer: Senior Vice President |
PO BOX 81226, SEATTLE WA 98108 |
| Edith W Cooper |
director |
C/O ETSY, INC., 117 ADAMS STREET, BROOKLYN NY 11249 |
| Jeffrey A Wilke |
officer: CEO Worldwide Consumer |
PO BOX 81226, SEATTLE WA 98108-1226 |
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