BLBX (Blackboxstocks) Predictability Rank

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What is Blackboxstocks Predictability Rank?

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

Blackboxstocks Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

	Predictables	Non-Predictable	All stocks
Total Number of stocks	570	1833	2403
Total Lost Money	61	830	891
Total Lost More Than 50%	18	412	430
Total Lost More Than 90%	4	86	90
Average Gain	260.6%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain	150.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gain	2852.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loss	-100.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	12.7%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	8.9%	1.1%	3.1%

For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank	5-Star	4.5-Star	4-Star	3.5-Star	3-Star	2.5-Star	2-Star	1-Star (non-predictable)	Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks	3.3%	2.9%	3.7%	3.3%	3.3%	3.7%	3.3%	76.3%	100%
% that are in Loss (10y)	3%	10%	8%	9%	11%	18%	16%	45%	37%
Average Gain (10y)	364.6%	330.9%	278.0%	235.1%	243.5%	227.8%	154.8%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain (10y)	238.5%	193.5%	171.0%	159.0%	132.5%	113.5%	87.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gainer	2228.0%	2547.0%	2452.0%	2852.0%	2432.0%	1892.0%	1807.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loser	-82.0%	-53.0%	-67.0%	-100.0%	-83.0%	-100.0%	-78.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	15.4%	14.6%	13.2%	12.0%	12.2%	11.7%	9.1%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	12.1%	10.6%	9.8%	9.3%	8.2%	7.3%	6.0%	1.1%	3.1%

For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

Blackboxstocks Predictability Rank Related Terms

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Blackboxstocks Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Technology » Software » Blackboxstocks Inc (NAS:BLBX) » Definitions » Predictability Rank

Comparable Companies

Traded in Other Exchanges

N/A

Address

5430 LBJ Freeway, Suite 1485, Dallas, TX, USA, 75240

Website

https://www.blackboxstocks.com

Blackboxstocks Inc is a financial technology and social media hybrid platform offering real-time proprietary analytics and news for stock and options traders of all levels. Its web-based software (the Blackbox System) employs predictive technology enhanced by artificial intelligence to find volatility and unusual market activity that may result in a rapid change in the price of a stock or option. It provides users with a fully interactive social media platform that is integrated into its dashboard, enabling users to exchange information and ideas quickly and efficiently through a common network. The company introduced a live audio/video feature that allows members to broadcast on their channels to share trading strategies and market insight within the Blackbox community.

Executives

Gust Kepler	director, 10 percent owner, officer: President	5430 LBJ FREEWAY, SUITE 1485, DALLAS TX 75240
Ray Balestri	director	4211 LAKESIDE DRIVE, DALLAS TX 75219
Charles Brandon Smith	officer: Chief Technology Officer	5430 LBJ FREEWAY, SUITE 1485, DALLAS TX 75240
Robert L Winspear	director, officer: Chief Financial Officer	2200 ROSE AVENUE SUITE 4100 EAST, DALLAS TX 75201
Andrew T Malloy	director	19111 NORTH DALLAS PARKWAY, SUITE 200, DALLAS NJ 75287
Dalya Sulaiman	director	MERKEZ MAH. CAVUSBASI CAD., LALEZAR KONATLAR A-7, CEKMEKOY, ISTANBUL W8 34782
Eric Pharis	10 percent owner	2 LAKE FOREST COURT, TROPHY CLUB TX 76262
Stephen Chiang	10 percent owner	8 KITCHENER LINK, CITY SQUARE RESIDENCES #21-14, SINGAPORE U0 207226
Karma Blackbox, Llc	10 percent owner	2 LAKE FOREST COURT, TROPHY CLUB TX 76262
David Kyle	10 percent owner	5430 LBJ FREEWAY, SUITE 1485, DALLAS TX 75240
Orsolya Peresztegi	director, 10 percent owner, officer: Pres, Secy, CEO, CFO	2591 DALLAS PARKWAY, SUITE 102, FRISCO TX 75034