BMEA (Biomea Fusion) Predictability Rank

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What is Biomea Fusion Predictability Rank?

Not Rated

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

Biomea Fusion Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

	Predictables	Non-Predictable	All stocks
Total Number of stocks	570	1833	2403
Total Lost Money	61	830	891
Total Lost More Than 50%	18	412	430
Total Lost More Than 90%	4	86	90
Average Gain	260.6%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain	150.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gain	2852.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loss	-100.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	12.7%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	8.9%	1.1%	3.1%

For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank	5-Star	4.5-Star	4-Star	3.5-Star	3-Star	2.5-Star	2-Star	1-Star (non-predictable)	Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks	3.3%	2.9%	3.7%	3.3%	3.3%	3.7%	3.3%	76.3%	100%
% that are in Loss (10y)	3%	10%	8%	9%	11%	18%	16%	45%	37%
Average Gain (10y)	364.6%	330.9%	278.0%	235.1%	243.5%	227.8%	154.8%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain (10y)	238.5%	193.5%	171.0%	159.0%	132.5%	113.5%	87.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gainer	2228.0%	2547.0%	2452.0%	2852.0%	2432.0%	1892.0%	1807.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loser	-82.0%	-53.0%	-67.0%	-100.0%	-83.0%	-100.0%	-78.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	15.4%	14.6%	13.2%	12.0%	12.2%	11.7%	9.1%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	12.1%	10.6%	9.8%	9.3%	8.2%	7.3%	6.0%	1.1%	3.1%

For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

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Biomea Fusion Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Healthcare » Biotechnology » Biomea Fusion Inc (NAS:BMEA) » Definitions » Predictability Rank

Comparable Companies

Traded in Other Exchanges

N/A

Address

900 Middlefield Road, 4th Floor, Redwood City, CA, USA, 94063

Website

https://www.biomeafusion.com

Biomea Fusion Inc is a preclinical-stage biopharmaceutical company. It is focused on the discovery, development and commercialization of irreversible small molecule drugs to treat patients with genetically defined cancers. The company's product candidate, BMF-219, is designed to be an orally bioavailable, potent and selective irreversible inhibitor of menin, an important transcriptional regulator known to play a direct role in oncogenic signaling in multiple cancers.

Executives

Hitchcock Michael J.m.	director	C/O BIOMEA FUSION, INC., 726 MAIN STREET, REDWOOD CITY CA 94063
Franco Valle	officer: Chief Financial Officer	999 SKYWAY ROAD, SUITE 150, SAN CARLOS CA 94070
Juan Pablo Frias	officer: Chief Medical Officer	900 MIDDLEFIELD ROAD, 4TH FLOOR, C/O BIOMEA FUSION, INC., REDWOOD CITY CA 94063
A2a Pharmaceuticals, Inc.	10 percent owner	59 5TH AVE, NEW YORK NY 10003
Cormorant Asset Management, Lp	10 percent owner	200 CLARENDON STREET, 52ND FLOOR, BOSTON MA 02116
Bihua Chen	director, 10 percent owner	C/O CORMORANT ASSET MANAGEMENT, LP, 200 CLARENDON STREET, 52ND FLOOR, BOSTON MA 02116
Cormorant Global Healthcare Master Fund, Lp	10 percent owner	200 CLARENDON STREET, 52ND FLOOR, BOSTON MA 02116
Cormorant Private Healthcare Fund Iii Lp	10 percent owner	200 CLARENDON STREET, 52ND FLOOR, BOSTON MA 02116
Elizabeth Faust	director	C/O BIOMEA FUSION, INC., 900 MIDDLEFIELD RD., 4TH FL, REDWOOD CITY CA 94063
Sumita Ray	director	C/O PHARMACYCLICS, INC., 995 EAST ARQUES AVENUE, SUNNYVALE CA 94085
Sotirios Stergiopoulos	director	C/O BIOMEA FUSION, INC., 726 MAIN STREET, REDWOOD CITY CA 94063
Rainer M Erdtmann	director, 10 percent owner, officer: President and COO	1073 ARLINGTON BLVD., EL CERRITO CA 94530
Thomas Andrew Butler	director, 10 percent owner, officer: CEO	726 MAIN STREET, REDWOOD CITY CA 94065
Eric Aguiar	director	888 7TH AVENUE, 12TH FLOOR, NEW YORK NY 10106
Biomea Health, Llc	10 percent owner	726 MAIN STREET, REDWOOD CITY CA 94063