BRFH (Barfresh Food Group) Predictability Rank

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What is Barfresh Food Group Predictability Rank?

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

Barfresh Food Group Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

	Predictables	Non-Predictable	All stocks
Total Number of stocks	570	1833	2403
Total Lost Money	61	830	891
Total Lost More Than 50%	18	412	430
Total Lost More Than 90%	4	86	90
Average Gain	260.6%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain	150.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gain	2852.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loss	-100.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	12.7%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	8.9%	1.1%	3.1%

For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank	5-Star	4.5-Star	4-Star	3.5-Star	3-Star	2.5-Star	2-Star	1-Star (non-predictable)	Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks	3.3%	2.9%	3.7%	3.3%	3.3%	3.7%	3.3%	76.3%	100%
% that are in Loss (10y)	3%	10%	8%	9%	11%	18%	16%	45%	37%
Average Gain (10y)	364.6%	330.9%	278.0%	235.1%	243.5%	227.8%	154.8%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain (10y)	238.5%	193.5%	171.0%	159.0%	132.5%	113.5%	87.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gainer	2228.0%	2547.0%	2452.0%	2852.0%	2432.0%	1892.0%	1807.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loser	-82.0%	-53.0%	-67.0%	-100.0%	-83.0%	-100.0%	-78.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	15.4%	14.6%	13.2%	12.0%	12.2%	11.7%	9.1%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	12.1%	10.6%	9.8%	9.3%	8.2%	7.3%	6.0%	1.1%	3.1%

For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

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Barfresh Food Group Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Consumer Defensive » Beverages - Non-Alcoholic » Barfresh Food Group Inc (NAS:BRFH) » Definitions » Predictability Rank

Comparable Companies

Traded in Other Exchanges

N/A

Address

3600 Wilshire Boulevard, Suite 1720, Los Angeles, CA, USA, 90010

Website

https://www.barfresh.com

Barfresh Food Group Inc develops, manufactures and distributes ready to blend frozen beverages, including smoothies, shakes and frappes for restaurant chains and the foodservice industry. The company's proprietary, patented system uses portion-controlled pre-packaged beverage ingredients that deliver freshly made frozen beverages that are quick, cost efficient, and without waste. Barfresh provides both a single serve solution and a bulk format solution, ideal for high-volume locations. It has seven flavors available as part of its standard line vanilla shake, caribbean smoothie, triple berry smoothie, caramel macchiato frappe, strawberry banana smoothie, mocha frappe and mango burst smoothie and has the development capabilities to deliver custom flavors.

Executives

Lisa Roger	officer: CHIEF FINANCIAL OFFICER	3600 WILSHIRE BOULEVARD SUITE 1720, LOS ANGELES CA 90010
Lazarus Investment Partners Lllp	10 percent owner	C/O IBEX INVESTORS LLC, 260 NORTH JOSEPHINE STREET, SUITE 300, DENVER CO 80206
Lazarus Macro Micro Partners Lllp	10 percent owner	260 N. JOSEPHINE STREET, SUITE 300, DENVER CO 80206
Joseph M. Cugine	director	16859 CAMINETTO COURT, NAPLES, NAPLES FL 34110
Delle Coste Riccardo	director, 10 percent owner, officer: Chief Executive Officer	C/O BARFRESH FOOD GROUP, INC., 8530 WILSHIRE BOULEVARD, SUITE 450, BEVERLY HILLS CA 90211
Raffi Loussararian	officer: PRINCIPAL ACCOUNTING OFFICER	3600 WILSHIRE BLVD, SUITE 1720, LOS ANGELES CA 90010
Lazarus Management Co Llc	10 percent owner	260 N. JOSEPHINE STREET, SUITE 300, DENVER CO 80206
Alice Elliot	director	C/O BARFRESH FOOD GROUP, INC., 8530 WILSHIRE BOULEVARD, SUITE 450, BEVERLY HILLS CA 90211
Isabelle Ortiz-cochet	director	2 ALLEE DE LONGCHAMP, SURESNES I0 92150
Nibel	10 percent owner	2 ALLEE DE LONGCHAMP, SURESNES I0 92150
Bruno Schoch	director	2 ALLEE DE LONGCHAMP, SURESNES I0 92150
Steven Lang	director, 10 percent owner	C/O BARFRESH FOOD GROUP, INC., 8530 WILSHIRE BOULEVARD, SUITE 450, BEVERLY HILLS CA 90211
Alexander H Ware	director	4000 DAIN RAUSCHER PLAZA, 60 SOUTH SIXTH STREET, MINNEAPOLIS MN 55402
Joseph S. Tesoriero	officer: Chief Financial Officer	C/O BARFRESH FOOD GROUP, INC., 8530 WILSHIRE BOULEVARD, SUITE 450, BEVERLY HILLS CA 90211
Arnold Tinter	director, officer: CFO, Secretary	8530 WILSHIRE BLVD, SUITE 450, BEVERLY HILLS CA 90211