BSFC (Blue Star Foods) Predictability Rank

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What is Blue Star Foods Predictability Rank?

Not Rated

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

Blue Star Foods Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

	Predictables	Non-Predictable	All stocks
Total Number of stocks	570	1833	2403
Total Lost Money	61	830	891
Total Lost More Than 50%	18	412	430
Total Lost More Than 90%	4	86	90
Average Gain	260.6%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain	150.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gain	2852.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loss	-100.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	12.7%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	8.9%	1.1%	3.1%

For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank	5-Star	4.5-Star	4-Star	3.5-Star	3-Star	2.5-Star	2-Star	1-Star (non-predictable)	Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks	3.3%	2.9%	3.7%	3.3%	3.3%	3.7%	3.3%	76.3%	100%
% that are in Loss (10y)	3%	10%	8%	9%	11%	18%	16%	45%	37%
Average Gain (10y)	364.6%	330.9%	278.0%	235.1%	243.5%	227.8%	154.8%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain (10y)	238.5%	193.5%	171.0%	159.0%	132.5%	113.5%	87.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gainer	2228.0%	2547.0%	2452.0%	2852.0%	2432.0%	1892.0%	1807.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loser	-82.0%	-53.0%	-67.0%	-100.0%	-83.0%	-100.0%	-78.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	15.4%	14.6%	13.2%	12.0%	12.2%	11.7%	9.1%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	12.1%	10.6%	9.8%	9.3%	8.2%	7.3%	6.0%	1.1%	3.1%

For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

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Blue Star Foods Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Consumer Defensive » Consumer Packaged Goods » Blue Star Foods Corp (NAS:BSFC) » Definitions » Predictability Rank

Comparable Companies

Traded in Other Exchanges

N/A

Address

3000 NW,109th Avenue, Miami, FL, USA, 33172

Website

https://www.bluestarfoods.com

Blue Star Foods Corp is an international seafood company based in Miami. It imports, packages, and sells refrigerated pasteurized crab meat, and other premium seafood products. The company derives revenue from importing blue and red swimming crab meat from Indonesia, Philippines and China and distributing it in the United States and Canada under several premium brand names such as Blue Star, Oceanica, Pacifika, Crab & Go, First Choice, Good Stuff and Coastal Pride Fresh. The Company's products are sold in the United States and Canada.

Executives

Nubar Herian	director	1120 NW 165TH STREET, MIAMI FL 33169
Jeffrey J Guzy	director	3130 19TH STREET, NORTH, ARLINGTON VA 22201
Trond K. Ringstad	director	1511 THIRD AVENUE, SUITE 788, SEATTLE WA 98101
John R Keeler	director, 10 percent owner, officer: Executive Chairman	3000 NW 109TH AVE, MIAMI FL 33172
Juan Carlos Dalto	director	3059 TOWNSGATE ROAD, WESTLAKE VILLAGE CA 91361
Miozotis Ponce	officer: Chief Operating Officer	3000 NW 109 AVENUE, MIAMI FL 33172
Silvia Sosa Alana	officer: Chief Financial Officer	3000 NW 109 AVENUE, MIAMI FL 33172
Timothy Andrew Mclellan	director	11016 MILL CREEK WAY, #2407, FORT MYERS FL 33913
Christopher Constable	director, officer: CFO, Treasurer and Secretary	3000 NW 109TH AVE, MIAMI FL 33172
Carlos Faria	director, 10 percent owner, officer: President and CEO	3000 NW 109TH AVE, MIAMI FL 33172
Laura E Anthony	director, 10 percent owner, officer: Former CFO Director+10% Holder	LAURA ANTHONY, 120 S. OLIVE AVE, WEST PALM BEACH FL 33401
Howard Gostfrand	director, 10 percent owner, officer: Former CEO Director+10% Holder	625 N. FLAGLER DRIVE, SUITE 600, WEST PALM BEACH FL 33401