BUKS (Butler National) Predictability Rank

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What is Butler National Predictability Rank?

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

Butler National Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

	Predictables	Non-Predictable	All stocks
Total Number of stocks	570	1833	2403
Total Lost Money	61	830	891
Total Lost More Than 50%	18	412	430
Total Lost More Than 90%	4	86	90
Average Gain	260.6%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain	150.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gain	2852.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loss	-100.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	12.7%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	8.9%	1.1%	3.1%

For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank	5-Star	4.5-Star	4-Star	3.5-Star	3-Star	2.5-Star	2-Star	1-Star (non-predictable)	Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks	3.3%	2.9%	3.7%	3.3%	3.3%	3.7%	3.3%	76.3%	100%
% that are in Loss (10y)	3%	10%	8%	9%	11%	18%	16%	45%	37%
Average Gain (10y)	364.6%	330.9%	278.0%	235.1%	243.5%	227.8%	154.8%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain (10y)	238.5%	193.5%	171.0%	159.0%	132.5%	113.5%	87.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gainer	2228.0%	2547.0%	2452.0%	2852.0%	2432.0%	1892.0%	1807.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loser	-82.0%	-53.0%	-67.0%	-100.0%	-83.0%	-100.0%	-78.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	15.4%	14.6%	13.2%	12.0%	12.2%	11.7%	9.1%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	12.1%	10.6%	9.8%	9.3%	8.2%	7.3%	6.0%	1.1%	3.1%

For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

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Butler National Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Industrials » Aerospace & Defense » Butler National Corp (OTCPK:BUKS) » Definitions » Predictability Rank

Comparable Companies

Traded in Other Exchanges

N/A

Address

One Aero Plaza, New Century, KS, USA, 66031

Website

https://www.butlernational.com

Butler National Corp is involved in the design, manufacturing, sale, installation, repair, modification, overhaul, service, and distribution of a wide range of aerostructures, aircraft components, avionics, accessories, subassemblies, and systems. The company has two operating segments: Professional Services and Aerospace Products. Its main source of revenue comes from the Aerospace Products segment. The Professional Services segment offers professional management services in the gaming industry, as well as professional architectural and engineering services. The company operates in North America, Europe, Asia, Australia, and other geographical regions.

Executives

Joseph Patrick Daly	10 percent owner	497 CIRCLE FREEWAY, CINCINNATI OH 45246
Christopher J Reedy	officer: Vice President	7411 RICHARDS DRIVE, SHAWNEE KS 66216
Joe Aric Peters	director	15125 MELROSE DRIVE, OVERLAND PARK KS 66221
Zeff Holding Company, Llc	10 percent owner	400 S. MCCADDEN PL., LOS ANGELES CA 90020
Veradace Partners Lp	10 percent owner	2626 COLE AVENUE, SUITE 300, DALLAS TX 75204
Zeff Capital, Lp	10 percent owner	400 S. MCCADDEN PL., LOS ANGELES CA 90020
Daniel Zeff	10 percent owner	400 S. MCCADDEN PL., LOS ANGELES CA 90020
John M. Edgar	director	2600 GRAND BOULEVARD, SUITE 440, KANSAS CITY MO 64108
David B Hayden	director	15733 SHANNAN LANE, OLATHE KS 66062
Tad Mitchell Mcmahon	officer: Chief Financial Officer	19920 W 161ST STREET, OLATHE KS 66062
Craig D Stewart	officer: Vice President and CFO	15213 KING STREET, OVERLAND PARK KS 66221
Angela D Seba-shinabargar	officer: CFO	11575 S. WATER, OLATHE KS 66061
Bradley Kyle Hoffman	director	8741 ENSLEY LANE, LEAWOOD KS 66206
Michael Joseph Tamburelli	director	11028 N. LAUREL AVE, KANSAS CITY MO 64157
Clark D Stewart	director, officer: President - CEO	15733 SHANNAN LANE, OLATHE KS 66062