CIBH (CIB Marine Bancshares) Predictability Rank

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What is CIB Marine Bancshares Predictability Rank?

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

CIB Marine Bancshares Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

	Predictables	Non-Predictable	All stocks
Total Number of stocks	570	1833	2403
Total Lost Money	61	830	891
Total Lost More Than 50%	18	412	430
Total Lost More Than 90%	4	86	90
Average Gain	260.6%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain	150.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gain	2852.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loss	-100.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	12.7%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	8.9%	1.1%	3.1%

For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank	5-Star	4.5-Star	4-Star	3.5-Star	3-Star	2.5-Star	2-Star	1-Star (non-predictable)	Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks	3.3%	2.9%	3.7%	3.3%	3.3%	3.7%	3.3%	76.3%	100%
% that are in Loss (10y)	3%	10%	8%	9%	11%	18%	16%	45%	37%
Average Gain (10y)	364.6%	330.9%	278.0%	235.1%	243.5%	227.8%	154.8%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain (10y)	238.5%	193.5%	171.0%	159.0%	132.5%	113.5%	87.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gainer	2228.0%	2547.0%	2452.0%	2852.0%	2432.0%	1892.0%	1807.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loser	-82.0%	-53.0%	-67.0%	-100.0%	-83.0%	-100.0%	-78.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	15.4%	14.6%	13.2%	12.0%	12.2%	11.7%	9.1%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	12.1%	10.6%	9.8%	9.3%	8.2%	7.3%	6.0%	1.1%	3.1%

For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

CIB Marine Bancshares Predictability Rank Related Terms

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CIB Marine Bancshares Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Financial Services » Banks » CIB Marine Bancshares Inc (OTCPK:CIBH) » Definitions » Predictability Rank

Comparable Companies

Traded in Other Exchanges

N/A

Address

19601 West Bluemound Road, Brookfield, WI, USA, 53045

Website

https://www.cibmarine.com

CIB Marine Bancshares Inc is a financial service holding company. It provides a full range of banking and related services through its banking subsidiary. The primary sources of revenue are predominantly from loans to small and middle-market business customers, investments in securities, and mortgage banking activity. The Bank also offers a range of deposits and other financial products to its customers. Its offices and, generally, customers are in the central and northeastern Illinois, Milwaukee, and Indianapolis markets.

Executives

Mark Arthur Elste	director	1930 WEST BLUEMOUND ROAD, SUITE D, WAUKESHA WI 53186
Paul Curtis Melnick	officer: EVP & Chief Credit Officer	1930 WEST BLUEMOUND ROAD, SUITE D, WAUKESHA WI 53186
Willard Iii Bunn	director	1930 WEST BLUEMOUND ROAD, SUITE D, WAUKESHA WI 53186
Charles David Mires	director	N27 W24025 PAUL COURT, PEWAUKEE WI 53072
Ronald Eugene Rhoades	director	N27 W24025 PAUL COURT, PEWAUKEE WI 53072
Charles E Baker	director	N27 W24025 PAUL COURT, PEWAUKEE WI 53072
Charles J Ponicki	officer: SVP, Chief Credit Officer	1930 WEST BLUEMOUND ROAD, SUITE D, WAUKESHA WI 53186
Edwin J. Depenbrok	officer: SVP, Chief Financial Officer	N27 W24025 PAUL COURT, PEWAUKEE WI 53072
Hickey John P Jr	officer: President and CEO	1930 WEST BLUEMOUND ROAD, SUITE D, WAUKESHA WI 53186
Merlon James Schuneman	officer: EVP and Sr. Commercial Banker	525 WEST MONROE STREET, SUITE 560, CHICAGO IL 60661
Michael L Paoletta	officer: SVP, Chief Credit Officer	N27 W24025 PAUL COURT, PEWAUKEE WI 53072
Daniel J Rasmussen	officer: SVP and General Counsel	N27 W24025 PAUL COURT, PEWAUKEE WI 53072
Cib Marine Bancshares, Inc.	officer: SVP and General Counsel	N27 W24025 PAUL COURT, PEWAUKEE WI 53072
Gary L Longman	director	N27 W24025 PAUL COURT, PEWAUKEE WI 53072
Steven C Hillard	director	C/O CENTRAL ILLINOIS BANCORP INC, N27 W24025 PAUL COURT, PEWAUKEE WI 53072