CIIT (Tianci International) Predictability Rank

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What is Tianci International Predictability Rank?

Not Rated

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

Tianci International Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

	Predictables	Non-Predictable	All stocks
Total Number of stocks	570	1833	2403
Total Lost Money	61	830	891
Total Lost More Than 50%	18	412	430
Total Lost More Than 90%	4	86	90
Average Gain	260.6%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain	150.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gain	2852.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loss	-100.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	12.7%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	8.9%	1.1%	3.1%

For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank	5-Star	4.5-Star	4-Star	3.5-Star	3-Star	2.5-Star	2-Star	1-Star (non-predictable)	Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks	3.3%	2.9%	3.7%	3.3%	3.3%	3.7%	3.3%	76.3%	100%
% that are in Loss (10y)	3%	10%	8%	9%	11%	18%	16%	45%	37%
Average Gain (10y)	364.6%	330.9%	278.0%	235.1%	243.5%	227.8%	154.8%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain (10y)	238.5%	193.5%	171.0%	159.0%	132.5%	113.5%	87.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gainer	2228.0%	2547.0%	2452.0%	2852.0%	2432.0%	1892.0%	1807.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loser	-82.0%	-53.0%	-67.0%	-100.0%	-83.0%	-100.0%	-78.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	15.4%	14.6%	13.2%	12.0%	12.2%	11.7%	9.1%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	12.1%	10.6%	9.8%	9.3%	8.2%	7.3%	6.0%	1.1%	3.1%

For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

Tianci International Predictability Rank Related Terms

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Tianci International Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Technology » Hardware » Tianci International Inc (NAS:CIIT) » Definitions » Predictability Rank

Comparable Companies

Traded in Other Exchanges

N/A

Address

401 Ryland Street, Suite 200-A, Reno, NV, USA, 89502

Website

http://www.tianci-ciit.com

Tianci International Inc along with its subsidiaries is engaged in sale of components of electronic devices, development of software and websites, technical consulting, and providing maintenance support on customized software. The company's business is predominantly carried out in Hong Kong with a substantial portion of its overall revenue being generated from its Electronic Device Hardware Components Sales segment.

Executives

Su Mei Chuah	director, 10 percent owner, officer: CEO and President	NO. 45-2, JALAN USJ 21/10, SUBANG JALA, SELANGOR DARUL EHSAN N8 47640
Weiyu Zhu	director	ROOM 1101, BLOCK 9A, TAOJINSHAN GARDEN, NO. 268 CUIYIN ROAD, LUOHU, SHENZHEN F4 518000
Yee Man Yung	director	C/O TIANCI INTERNATIONAL, INC., NO. 45-2, JALAN USJ 21/10, SUBANG JAYA, SELANGOR DARUL EHSAN N8 47640
Fan Liu	director	C/O TIANCI INTERNATIONAL, INC., NO. 45-2, JALAN USJ 21/10, SUBANG JAYA, SELANGOR DARUL EHSAN N8 47640
Shufang Gao	director	C/O TIANCI INTERNATIONAL. INC., NO. 45-2, JALAN USJ 21/10, SUBANG JAYA, SELANGOR DARUL EHSAN N8 47640
Wei Fang	director	C/O TIANCI INTERNATIONAL, INC., NO. 45-2, JALAN USJ 21/10, SUBANG JAYA, SELANGOR DARUL EHSAN N8 47640
Zhigang Pei	director, 10 percent owner, officer: CEO and CFO	C/O TIANCI INTERNATIONAL, INC., NO. A1111, HUAFENG FINANCIAL PORT, 1003,, SHENZHEN, GUANGDONG PROVINCE F4 47640
Jerry Ooi	director	NO. 45-2, JALAN USJ 21/10, SUBANG JALA, SELANGOR DARUL EHSAN N8 47640
Su Chen Chuah	director, 10 percent owner, officer: Chief Financial Officer	NO. 45-2, JALAN USJ 21/10, SUBANG JALA, SELANGOR DARUL EHSAN N8 47640
Yuen Kai Yeow	director, officer: Chief Technology Officer	NO. 45-2, JALAN USJ 21/10, SUBANG JALA, SELANGOR DARUL EHSAN N8 47640
Cuilian Cai	director, officer: Director CEO & CFO	#503, BUILDING 10, TAIHU NEW CITY, SUZHOU F4 214071
Shifang Wan	10 percent owner	UNIT 5, NO.2 WEST STREET SHIPU TOWN, LIU'AN, ANHUI F4 237000
Jan Paul Vorstermans	10 percent owner	LONDENSTRAAT 60 BUS 161, ANTWERP C9 B-2000
Brendon Peter Grunewald	10 percent owner	AVE DES CATTLEYAS 47, BRUSSELS C9 B-1150
Ventus Investment Holding Ltd	10 percent owner	43A/1, ST. PAUL'S BUILDING, WEST STREET, VALLETTA?VLT1532 O1 00000