CTR (ClearBridge Energy MLP Total Return Fund) Predictability Rank

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What is ClearBridge Energy MLP Total Return Fund Predictability Rank?

Not Rated

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

ClearBridge Energy MLP Total Return Fund Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

	Predictables	Non-Predictable	All stocks
Total Number of stocks	570	1833	2403
Total Lost Money	61	830	891
Total Lost More Than 50%	18	412	430
Total Lost More Than 90%	4	86	90
Average Gain	260.6%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain	150.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gain	2852.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loss	-100.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	12.7%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	8.9%	1.1%	3.1%

For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank	5-Star	4.5-Star	4-Star	3.5-Star	3-Star	2.5-Star	2-Star	1-Star (non-predictable)	Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks	3.3%	2.9%	3.7%	3.3%	3.3%	3.7%	3.3%	76.3%	100%
% that are in Loss (10y)	3%	10%	8%	9%	11%	18%	16%	45%	37%
Average Gain (10y)	364.6%	330.9%	278.0%	235.1%	243.5%	227.8%	154.8%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain (10y)	238.5%	193.5%	171.0%	159.0%	132.5%	113.5%	87.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gainer	2228.0%	2547.0%	2452.0%	2852.0%	2432.0%	1892.0%	1807.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loser	-82.0%	-53.0%	-67.0%	-100.0%	-83.0%	-100.0%	-78.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	15.4%	14.6%	13.2%	12.0%	12.2%	11.7%	9.1%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	12.1%	10.6%	9.8%	9.3%	8.2%	7.3%	6.0%	1.1%	3.1%

For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

ClearBridge Energy MLP Total Return Fund Predictability Rank Related Terms

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ClearBridge Energy MLP Total Return Fund Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Financial Services » Asset Management » ClearBridge Energy MLP Total Return Fund (NYSE:CTR) » Definitions » Predictability Rank

Comparable Companies

Traded in Other Exchanges

N/A

Address

620 Eighth Avenue, 47th Floor, New York, NY, USA, 10018

Website

https://www.franklintempleton.com

ClearBridge Energy MLP Total Return Fund is the United States-based non-diversified, closed-end management investment company. Its investment objective is to provide a high level of total return consisting of cash distributions and capital appreciation.

Executives

Saba Capital Management, L.p.	10 percent owner	405 LEXINGTON AVENUE, 58TH FLOOR, NEW YORK NY 10174
Oliveira Marc De	officer: Secretary/Chief Legal Officer	C/O LEGG MASON & CO. LLC, ONE FIRST STAMFORD PLACE, STAMFORD CT 06902
Jasna Dolgov	other: General Counsel/Subadviser	CLEARBRIDGE INVESTMENTS, 620 EIGHTH AVENUE, NEW YORK NY 10018
Prudential Financial Inc	10 percent owner	751 BROAD ST, NEWARK NJ 07102
Prudential Insurance Co Of America	10 percent owner	751 BROAD STREET, NEWARK NJ 07102
Franklin Resources Inc	other: Affiliate of Investment Adv.	FRANKLIN RESOURCES INC, ONE FRANKLIN PARKWAY, SAN MATEO CA 94403
Boaz Weinstein	10 percent owner	405 LEXINGTON AVENUE, 58TH FLOOR, NEW YORK NY 10174
Carol L Colman	director	278 HAWLEY RD, NORTH SALEM NY 10560
Chris Eades	other: Portfolio Manager	620 EIGHTH AVENUE, 48TH FLOOR, NEW YORK NY 10018
Laura F Fergerson	other: Manager/Investment Manager	3310 QUALITY DRIVE, 2ND FLOOR, RANCHO CORDOVA CA 95670
George P. Hoyt	officer: Secretary and Ch Lgl Officer	C/O FRANKLIN TEMPLETON, 100 FIRST STAMFORD PLACE, STAMFORD CT 06902
Gwen L Shaneyfelt	other: Director of Sub-Adviser	ONE FRANKLIN PARKWAY, SAN MATEO CA 94403
Jed A. Plafker	other: Director of Sub-Adviser	ONE FRANKLIN PARKWAY, SAN MATEO CA 94403
Jennifer M Johnson	other: Director of Sub-Adviser	C/O FRANKLIN RESOURCES, INC., ONE FRANKLIN PARKWAY, SAN MATEO CA 94403-1906
Matthew Nicholls	other: Director of Sub-Adviser	ONE FRANKLIN PARKWAY, SAN MATEO CA 94403