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Churchill Capital VII (Churchill Capital VII) Predictability Rank


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What is Churchill Capital VII Predictability Rank?

Not Rated

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

Churchill Capital VII Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

PredictablesNon-PredictableAll stocks
Total Number of stocks57018332403
Total Lost Money61830891
Total Lost More Than 50%18412430
Total Lost More Than 90%48690
Average Gain260.6%100.0%138.1%
Median Gain150.0%13.0%39.0%
Maximum Gain2852.0%11483.0%11483.0%
Maximum Loss-100.0%-100.0%-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain12.7%6.7%8.4%
Annualized Median Gain8.9%1.1%3.1%


















For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank5-Star4.5-Star4-Star3.5-Star3-Star2.5-Star2-Star1-Star (non-predictable)Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks 3.3% 2.9% 3.7% 3.3% 3.3% 3.7% 3.3% 76.3% 100%
% that are in Loss (10y) 3% 10% 8% 9% 11% 18% 16% 45% 37%
Average Gain (10y) 364.6% 330.9% 278.0% 235.1% 243.5% 227.8% 154.8% 100.0% 138.1%
Median Gain (10y) 238.5% 193.5% 171.0% 159.0% 132.5% 113.5% 87.0% 13.0% 39.0%
Maximum Gainer 2228.0% 2547.0% 2452.0% 2852.0% 2432.0% 1892.0% 1807.0% 11483.0% 11483.0%
Maximum Loser -82.0% -53.0% -67.0% -100.0% -83.0% -100.0% -78.0% -100.0% -100.0%
Annualized Average Gain 15.4% 14.6% 13.2% 12.0% 12.2% 11.7% 9.1% 6.7% 8.4%
Annualized Median Gain 12.1% 10.6% 9.8% 9.3% 8.2% 7.3% 6.0% 1.1% 3.1%
















For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

Also read:

Part II: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part II: Role of Valuations
Part III: Intrinsic Value, Discounted Cash Flow and Margin of Safety

Churchill Capital VII Predictability Rank Related Terms

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Churchill Capital VII (Churchill Capital VII) Business Description

Industry
GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Financial Services » Diversified Financial Services » Churchill Capital Corp VII (NAS:CVII) » Definitions » Predictability Rank
Comparable Companies
SCRM AAC GHIX ALCC AACT DWAC SAGA HCVI TRTL CCVI PBAJ SVMB LSE:ADMR SLAM NETD CXAC NFNT APGB KCGI CNDA
Traded in Other Exchanges
CVII.U:USA
Address
640 Fifth Avenue, 12th Floor, New York, NY, USA, 10019
Website
https://vii.churchillcapitalcorp.com
Churchill Capital Corp VII is a blank check company.
Executives
Magnetar Financial Llc 10 percent owner 1603 ORRINGTON AVE., 13TH FLOOR, EVANSTON IL 60201
Atlas Merchant Capital Llc 10 percent owner 477 MADISON AVENUE, 22ND FLOOR, NEW YORK NY 10022
Magnetar Capital Partners Lp 10 percent owner 1603 ORRINGTON AVE., 13TH FLOOR, EVANSTON IL 60201
Supernova Management Llc 10 percent owner 1603 ORRINGTON AVENUE, 13TH FLOOR, EVANSTON IL 60201
David J. Snyderman 10 percent owner C/O MAGNETAR FINANCIAL LLC, 1603 ORRINGTON AVENUE, 13TH FLOOR, EVANSTON IL 60201
Alan Schrager director C/O OHA INVESTMENT CORPORATION, 1114 AVENUE OF THE AMERICAS, 27TH FLOOR, NEW YORK NY 10036
Stephen Anthony Murphy director 640 FIFTH AVENUE, 12TH FLOOR, NEW YORK NY 10019
Andrew Frankle director 640 FIFTH AVENUE, 12TH FLOOR, NEW YORK NY 10019
Malcolm Stephen Mcdermid director C/O CTC MY CFO, P.O. BOX 10195, DEPT. 1173, PALO ALTO CA 94303
Churchill Sponsor Vii Llc 10 percent owner 640 FIFTH AVENUE, 12TH FLOOR, NEW YORK NY 10019
Lee Jay Taragin officer: Chief Financial Officer 640 FIFTH AVENUE, 12TH FLOOR, NEW YORK NY 10019
Bonnie Jonas director 640 FIFTH AVENUE, 12TH FLOOR, NEW YORK NY 10019
Michael Stuart Klein director, 10 percent owner, officer: See Remarks C/O DAVIS POLK & WARDWELL, 450 LEXINGTON AVENUE, NEW YORK NY 10017
M. Klein Associates, Inc. 10 percent owner 640 FIFTH AVENUE, 12TH FLOOR, NEW YORK NY 10019
Glenn R August director C/O OHA - 1114 AVENUE OF THE AMERICAS, 27TH FLOOR, NEW YORK NY 10036