CXDO (Crexendo) Predictability Rank

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What is Crexendo Predictability Rank?

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

Crexendo Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

	Predictables	Non-Predictable	All stocks
Total Number of stocks	570	1833	2403
Total Lost Money	61	830	891
Total Lost More Than 50%	18	412	430
Total Lost More Than 90%	4	86	90
Average Gain	260.6%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain	150.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gain	2852.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loss	-100.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	12.7%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	8.9%	1.1%	3.1%

For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank	5-Star	4.5-Star	4-Star	3.5-Star	3-Star	2.5-Star	2-Star	1-Star (non-predictable)	Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks	3.3%	2.9%	3.7%	3.3%	3.3%	3.7%	3.3%	76.3%	100%
% that are in Loss (10y)	3%	10%	8%	9%	11%	18%	16%	45%	37%
Average Gain (10y)	364.6%	330.9%	278.0%	235.1%	243.5%	227.8%	154.8%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain (10y)	238.5%	193.5%	171.0%	159.0%	132.5%	113.5%	87.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gainer	2228.0%	2547.0%	2452.0%	2852.0%	2432.0%	1892.0%	1807.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loser	-82.0%	-53.0%	-67.0%	-100.0%	-83.0%	-100.0%	-78.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	15.4%	14.6%	13.2%	12.0%	12.2%	11.7%	9.1%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	12.1%	10.6%	9.8%	9.3%	8.2%	7.3%	6.0%	1.1%	3.1%

For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

Crexendo Predictability Rank Related Terms

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Crexendo Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Communication Services » Telecommunication Services » Crexendo Inc (NAS:CXDO) » Definitions » Predictability Rank

Comparable Companies

Traded in Other Exchanges

N/A

Address

1225 West Washington Street, Tempe, AZ, USA, 85288

Website

https://www.crexendo.com

Crexendo Inc is a provider of cloud communications, UCaaS, call centers, collaboration services, and other cloud business services. The company operates through two segments: Cloud telecommunications and Software Solutions. Its cloud telecommunications segment offers hardware, software, and unified communication solutions for businesses using IP or cloud technology over any high-speed Internet connection. The Software Solutions segment is involved in revenue generation from software licenses, software maintenance support, and professional services. It generates subscription and maintenance support revenue from customer support and other supportive services. The company offers warranties on its products. It derives a majority of its revenue from the Cloud telecommunications segment.

Executives

David Tzat-kin Wang	officer: Chief Technology Officer	1615 S 52ND ST, TEMPE AZ 85281
Anand Buch	officer: Chief Strategy Officer	1615 S 52ND ST, TEMPE AZ 85281
Douglas Walter Gaylor	officer: Chief Operating Officer	1615 SOUTH 52ND STREET, TEMPE AZ 85281
Ron Vincent	officer: Chief Financial Officer	1615 SOUTH 52ND STREET, TEMPE AZ 85281
Jeffrey G Korn	officer: Chief Legal Officer	1615 SOUTH 52ND STREET, TEMPE AZ 85281
Jon Brinton	officer: Chief Revenue Officer	350 LEGGET DRIVE, OTTAWA A5 K2K 2W7
Anil K. Puri	director	1615 SOUTH 52ND STREET, TEMPE AZ 85281
Steven G Mihaylo	10 percent owner	1615 SOUTH 52ND STREET, TEMPE AZ 85281
Jeffrey Parr Bash	director	11 AMY DRIVE, WESTFIELD NJ 07090
Todd Andrew Goergen	director	1615 SOUTH 52ND STREET, TEMPE AZ 85281
David Roy Williams	director	PO BOX 7019, INCLINE VILLAGE NV 89450
Jonathan Richard Erickson	officer: Chief Financial Officer	1615 SOUTH 52ND STREET, TEMPE AZ 85281
Satish Bhagavatula	officer: Chief Technology Officer	1615 SOUTH 52ND STREET, TEMPE AZ 85281
David Lynn Rosenvall	officer: Chief Technology Officer	754 E TECHNOLOGY AVE, OREM UT 84097
Clint Sanderson	other: Sr. VP -Storesonline	1303 NORTH RESEARCH WAY, OREM X1 84097