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CXDO (Crexendo) Predictability Rank


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What is Crexendo Predictability Rank?

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Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.


Crexendo Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

PredictablesNon-PredictableAll stocks
Total Number of stocks57018332403
Total Lost Money61830891
Total Lost More Than 50%18412430
Total Lost More Than 90%48690
Average Gain260.6%100.0%138.1%
Median Gain150.0%13.0%39.0%
Maximum Gain2852.0%11483.0%11483.0%
Maximum Loss-100.0%-100.0%-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain12.7%6.7%8.4%
Annualized Median Gain8.9%1.1%3.1%


















For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank5-Star4.5-Star4-Star3.5-Star3-Star2.5-Star2-Star1-Star (non-predictable)Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks 3.3% 2.9% 3.7% 3.3% 3.3% 3.7% 3.3% 76.3% 100%
% that are in Loss (10y) 3% 10% 8% 9% 11% 18% 16% 45% 37%
Average Gain (10y) 364.6% 330.9% 278.0% 235.1% 243.5% 227.8% 154.8% 100.0% 138.1%
Median Gain (10y) 238.5% 193.5% 171.0% 159.0% 132.5% 113.5% 87.0% 13.0% 39.0%
Maximum Gainer 2228.0% 2547.0% 2452.0% 2852.0% 2432.0% 1892.0% 1807.0% 11483.0% 11483.0%
Maximum Loser -82.0% -53.0% -67.0% -100.0% -83.0% -100.0% -78.0% -100.0% -100.0%
Annualized Average Gain 15.4% 14.6% 13.2% 12.0% 12.2% 11.7% 9.1% 6.7% 8.4%
Annualized Median Gain 12.1% 10.6% 9.8% 9.3% 8.2% 7.3% 6.0% 1.1% 3.1%
















For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

Also read:

Part II: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part II: Role of Valuations
Part III: Intrinsic Value, Discounted Cash Flow and Margin of Safety

Crexendo Predictability Rank Related Terms

Thank you for viewing the detailed overview of Crexendo's Predictability Rank provided by GuruFocus.com. Please click on the following links to see related term pages.


Crexendo Business Description

Traded in Other Exchanges
N/A
Address
1225 West Washington Street, Tempe, AZ, USA, 85288
Crexendo Inc is a provider of cloud communications, UCaaS, call centers, collaboration services, and other cloud business services. The company operates through two segments: Cloud telecommunications and Software Solutions. Its cloud telecommunications segment offers hardware, software, and unified communication solutions for businesses using IP or cloud technology over any high-speed Internet connection. The Software Solutions segment is involved in revenue generation from software licenses, software maintenance support, and professional services. It generates subscription and maintenance support revenue from customer support and other supportive services. The company offers warranties on its products. It derives a majority of its revenue from the Cloud telecommunications segment.
Executives
David Tzat-kin Wang officer: Chief Technology Officer 1615 S 52ND ST, TEMPE AZ 85281
Anand Buch officer: Chief Strategy Officer 1615 S 52ND ST, TEMPE AZ 85281
Douglas Walter Gaylor officer: Chief Operating Officer 1615 SOUTH 52ND STREET, TEMPE AZ 85281
Ron Vincent officer: Chief Financial Officer 1615 SOUTH 52ND STREET, TEMPE AZ 85281
Jeffrey G Korn officer: Chief Legal Officer 1615 SOUTH 52ND STREET, TEMPE AZ 85281
Jon Brinton officer: Chief Revenue Officer 350 LEGGET DRIVE, OTTAWA A5 K2K 2W7
Anil K. Puri director 1615 SOUTH 52ND STREET, TEMPE AZ 85281
Steven G Mihaylo 10 percent owner 1615 SOUTH 52ND STREET, TEMPE AZ 85281
Jeffrey Parr Bash director 11 AMY DRIVE, WESTFIELD NJ 07090
Todd Andrew Goergen director 1615 SOUTH 52ND STREET, TEMPE AZ 85281
David Roy Williams director PO BOX 7019, INCLINE VILLAGE NV 89450
Jonathan Richard Erickson officer: Chief Financial Officer 1615 SOUTH 52ND STREET, TEMPE AZ 85281
Satish Bhagavatula officer: Chief Technology Officer 1615 SOUTH 52ND STREET, TEMPE AZ 85281
David Lynn Rosenvall officer: Chief Technology Officer 754 E TECHNOLOGY AVE, OREM UT 84097
Clint Sanderson other: Sr. VP -Storesonline 1303 NORTH RESEARCH WAY, OREM X1 84097