What is Drilling Tools International Predictability Rank?
Not Rated
Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:
1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.
It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.
GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.
Drilling Tools International Predictability Rank Calculation
In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.
Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:
Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.
The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.
Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns
| Predictables | Non-Predictable | All stocks |
|---|
| Total Number of stocks | 570 | 1833 | 2403 |
| Total Lost Money | 61 | 830 | 891 |
| Total Lost More Than 50% | 18 | 412 | 430 |
| Total Lost More Than 90% | 4 | 86 | 90 |
| Average Gain | 260.6% | 100.0% | 138.1% |
| Median Gain | 150.0% | 13.0% | 39.0% |
| Maximum Gain | 2852.0% | 11483.0% | 11483.0% |
| Maximum Loss | -100.0% | -100.0% | -100.0% |
| Annualized Average Gain | 12.7% | 6.7% | 8.4% |
| Annualized Median Gain | 8.9% | 1.1% | 3.1% |
For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.
| Predictability Rank | 5-Star | 4.5-Star | 4-Star | 3.5-Star | 3-Star | 2.5-Star | 2-Star | 1-Star (non-predictable) | Average among all |
|---|
| % Out of All 2403 Stocks |
3.3% |
2.9% |
3.7% |
3.3% |
3.3% |
3.7% |
3.3% |
76.3% |
100% |
| % that are in Loss (10y) |
3% |
10% |
8% |
9% |
11% |
18% |
16% |
45% |
37% |
| Average Gain (10y) |
364.6% |
330.9% |
278.0% |
235.1% |
243.5% |
227.8% |
154.8% |
100.0% |
138.1% |
| Median Gain (10y) |
238.5% |
193.5% |
171.0% |
159.0% |
132.5% |
113.5% |
87.0% |
13.0% |
39.0% |
| Maximum Gainer |
2228.0% |
2547.0% |
2452.0% |
2852.0% |
2432.0% |
1892.0% |
1807.0% |
11483.0% |
11483.0% |
| Maximum Loser |
-82.0% |
-53.0% |
-67.0% |
-100.0% |
-83.0% |
-100.0% |
-78.0% |
-100.0% |
-100.0% |
| Annualized Average Gain |
15.4% |
14.6% |
13.2% |
12.0% |
12.2% |
11.7% |
9.1% |
6.7% |
8.4% |
| Annualized Median Gain |
12.1% |
10.6% |
9.8% |
9.3% |
8.2% |
7.3% |
6.0% |
1.1% |
3.1% |
For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank
Also read:
Part II: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part II: Role of Valuations
Part III: Intrinsic Value, Discounted Cash Flow and Margin of Safety
Drilling Tools International Business Description
Traded in Other Exchanges
N/A
Address
3701 Briarpark Drive, Suite 150, Houston, TX, USA, 77042
Drilling Tools International Corp manufactures, rents, inspects, and refurbishes downhole drilling tools primarily to companies in the oil and natural gas industry for bottom hole assemblies used in onshore and offshore horizontal and directional drilling. The company's United States operations have locations in Texas, California, Louisiana, Oklahoma, Pennsylvania, North Dakota, New Mexico, Utah, and Wyoming. The company's single segment derives revenues from customers by providing oilfield equipment and services to operators in the oil and natural gas sectors.
Executives
| Thomas Monroe Patterson |
director |
801 CHERRY STREET, SUITE 2100, FORT WORTH TX 76102 |
| Thomas O Hicks |
director, 10 percent owner |
2200 ROSS AVENUE, SUITE 4600 W, DALLAS TX 75201 |
| David Richard Johnson |
officer: Chief Financial Officer |
27215 SYMPHONY CREEK LN, FULSHEAR TX 77441 |
| Robert Wayne Prejean |
director, officer: CEO, President |
3701 BRIARPARK DRIVE, SUITE 150, HOUSTON TX 77042 |
| Domino Michael Wayne Jr. |
officer: President, DTR Division |
3701 BRIARPARK DRIVE, SUITE 150, HOUSTON TX 77042 |
| Vermillion Charles Richard Jr. |
director |
4605 POST OAK PLACE #202, HOUSTON TX 77027 |
| L.p. Hhep-directional, |
10 percent owner |
2200 ROSS AVENUE, 50TH FLOOR, DALLAS TX 75201 |
| Curt L. Crofford |
director |
100 CRESCENT COURT, SUITE 1200, DALLAS TX 75201 |
| Eric C Neuman |
director |
100 CRESCENT COURT, SUITE 1200, DALLAS TX 75201 |
| Jack D Furst |
director |
2591 LAKESIDE PARKWAY, SUITE 100, FLOWER MOUND TX 75022 |
| Roc Energy Holdings, Llc |
10 percent owner |
16400 DALLAS PARKWAY, DALLAS TX 75248 |
| Daniel Jeffrey Kimes |
director, officer: Chief Executive Officer |
16400 DALLAS PARKWAY, DALLAS TX 75248 |
| Joseph Drysdale |
director |
16400 DALLAS PARKWAY, DALLAS TX 75248 |
| Win Graham |
director |
16400 DALLAS PARKWAY, DALLAS TX 75248 |
| Rosemarie Cicalese |
officer: Chief Financial Officer |
16400 DALLAS PARKWAY, DALLAS TX 75248 |
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