DYAI (Dyadic International) Predictability Rank

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What is Dyadic International Predictability Rank?

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

Dyadic International Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

	Predictables	Non-Predictable	All stocks
Total Number of stocks	570	1833	2403
Total Lost Money	61	830	891
Total Lost More Than 50%	18	412	430
Total Lost More Than 90%	4	86	90
Average Gain	260.6%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain	150.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gain	2852.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loss	-100.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	12.7%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	8.9%	1.1%	3.1%

For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank	5-Star	4.5-Star	4-Star	3.5-Star	3-Star	2.5-Star	2-Star	1-Star (non-predictable)	Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks	3.3%	2.9%	3.7%	3.3%	3.3%	3.7%	3.3%	76.3%	100%
% that are in Loss (10y)	3%	10%	8%	9%	11%	18%	16%	45%	37%
Average Gain (10y)	364.6%	330.9%	278.0%	235.1%	243.5%	227.8%	154.8%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain (10y)	238.5%	193.5%	171.0%	159.0%	132.5%	113.5%	87.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gainer	2228.0%	2547.0%	2452.0%	2852.0%	2432.0%	1892.0%	1807.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loser	-82.0%	-53.0%	-67.0%	-100.0%	-83.0%	-100.0%	-78.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	15.4%	14.6%	13.2%	12.0%	12.2%	11.7%	9.1%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	12.1%	10.6%	9.8%	9.3%	8.2%	7.3%	6.0%	1.1%	3.1%

For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

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Dyadic International Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Healthcare » Biotechnology » Dyadic International Inc (NAS:DYAI) » Definitions » Predictability Rank

Comparable Companies

Traded in Other Exchanges

N/A

Address

1044 North U.S. Highway One, Suite 201, Jupiter, FL, USA, 33477

Website

https://www.dyadic.com

Dyadic International Inc is a worldwide biotechnology platform company. It has developed a gene expression platform for producing commercial quantities of industrial enzymes and other proteins and has licensed this technology to third parties, such as Abengoa Bioenergy, BASF, Codexis and others, for use in industrial (non-pharmaceutical) applications. This technology is based on the Thermothelomyces heterothallica fungus, which the company named C1.

Executives

Ronen Tchelet	officer: VP of Research and Bus. Dvlpmt	140 INTRACOASTAL POINTE DRIVE, SUITE 404, JUPITER X1 33477
Mark A Emalfarb	director, 10 percent owner, officer: President, CEO & Chairman	C/O DYADIC INTERNATIONAL, INC., 140 INTRACOASTAL POINT DRIVE, SUITE 404, JUPITER FL 33477-5094
Joseph P Hazelton	officer: Chief Business Officer	140 INTRACOASTAL POINTE DRIVE, SUITE 404, JUPITER FL 33477
Francisco Trust Under Agreement Dated February 28, 1996	10 percent owner	C/O ROBERT S. LEVIN, ESQ., TRUSTEE, 180 NORTH LASALLE STREET, SUITE 3200, CHICAGO IL 60601
Patrick K. Lucy	director	C/O PFENEX INC., 10790 ROSELLE STREET, SAN DIEGO CA 92121
Matthew S. Jones	officer: Managing Dir of BD & Licensing	140 INTRACOASTAL POINTE DRIVE, SUITE 404, JUPITER X1 33477
Seth Herbst	director	140 INTRACOASTAL POINTE DRIVE, SUITE 404, JUPITER X1 33477
Barry Buckland	director	C/O DYADIC INTERNATIONAL, INC., 140 INTERCOASTAL POINTE DR SUITE 404, JUPITER FL 33477
Ping Wang Rawson	officer: Chief Financial Officer	140 INTRACOASTAL POINTE DRIVE, SUITE 404, JUPITER X1 33477
Michael P. Tarnok	director	KERYX BIOPHARMACEUTICALS, INC., 750 LEXINGTON AVENUE, NEW YORK NY 10022
Arindam Bose	director	4452 BELTWAY DRIVE, ADDISON TX 75001
Jack Kaye	director	C/O KERYX BIOPHARMACEUTICALS, 750 LEXINGTON AVENUE, NEW YORK X1 10022
Tom Juda	10 percent owner	410 S LUCERNE BLVD, LOS ANGELES CA 90020
John Steven Emerson	10 percent owner	1522 ENSLEY AVENUE, LOS ANGELES CA 90024
Nancy Juda	10 percent owner	410 S LUCERNE BLVD, LOS ANGELES CA 90020